I think it may run to $40's in this leg up. Preliminary inflation numbers in Brazil are showing signs of easing up... this along with PBR saga being put behind, Brazil may run a bit...
this kind of expansion planned by the big 3 is a mistake and time will show. If they ( management ) would think this fight would not have government intervention. The oil industry learned the hard way in the 70's, and OPEC was created. Once BHP/RIO and VALE would be just skeleton around, they might re-think this complete non-sense strategy.
I have said many times before, the plan by BHP/RIO and VALE of expand production is a losing game, and at the end, there will be no winners! Just very debilitated stock prices, and completely deep in debt companies! People running these companies, are without any doubt, complete idiots!
Nearly 100% of what is happening to PBR is political. There are two major lines:
a) The side that want to the Oil fields to be open to other companies, beyond PBR
b) The opposition party that wants all the blame for PBR wrong dues to be on PT's blame!
c) All politics wants to see PT and Dilma as much attached to all this mess, than anything else.
Once all political sides have milked all they can, the company will be just fine, like YPF did it. BTW, YPF has junk status and went up from single digits to $40's.
there is an effort by Wall Street, to decimate the company as much as they can, to get on the cheap side. Everyone that is not an idiot, knows that the worst for PBR is over, and better times are ahead. Sell here if you want to just play like an idiot!
Cash, move on!
As you already know, folks that still holding this company, are doing for the long run!, and new buyers here are just buying a great deal, if they have patience.
Just get mad because you lost your shirt here, does not help you or anyone else. Let it go, and move to places better. If this is bad, why waste every ones time?
Commodities are cyclical and the world is now working to assimilate the US$10T that the FED printed between 2006-2014. That creates a lot of weird things, and to add to that, China has "learned" how to release their numbers to buy commodities at the cheap, and WS is slow and corrupt and will take time to assimilate that. Just be patient, it may take a few years, and may take a few decades. Usually the commodities cycles last 10-15 years.... we're 1/2 away on that down cycle....
Yes, it is unthinkable what is happening to the Brazilian market as a whole! The market has priced Brazil as if it were a Greece or something like that. We at levels of the deep 2008 crisis!
It seems the more you print, the stronger it gets.... Hopefully the EU starts printing a trillion euros a year, and japan follow through to make sure all currencies get as strong as the US$.
Eventually, physical commodities will have no value.... only faked printed money will have value on the market.... interesting days we live in...
That is what the usual local press is saying. She couldn't go this week, since no one is paying attention to anything in Brazil right now, except Carnival!
I doubt this would happen in Brazil, the damage of such thing would be just to much, and the PDVSA is around the corner from Brazil, so people know what happen to a great Company in Venezuela. But, as you say, from politicians you can always expect the worst, they're good at that everywhere in the world.
This talk of Nationalization is just scare tactics, because it will be terible for Brazil's economy and all finance downgrades that will come along with that for the whole set of companies in Brazil. The government will never do that, and PBR will never go BK as you said. I agree that PBR *WILL NEVER BE MARKET FRIENDLY*, it is an instrument of political policies used by different governments, as has been PEMEX, YPF, PDVSA, and many others.
What the heck Dilma was thinking!