XCO essentially has been giving shareholders their money back, reducing share cost basis via return of capital rather than paying a true dividend. See my post on today's other dividend thread for more information. Good thing is, the "dividend" is not taxable until your basis is reduced to zero (taxable as capital gain after that point) or sell the associated shares.
"Pursuant to Internal Revenue Code Section 6045B, we are reporting to all holders of record the estimated character of this payment. This dividend is based upon an estimate of earnings and profits as of date of the payment and should be treated as a return of capital for any distributions a shareholder may have received." (EXCO Resources Tax Information, 2011 - 2013)
"Distributions that qualify as a return of capital are not dividends. A return of capital is a return of some or all of your investment in the stock of the company. A return of capital reduces the basis of your stock. For information on Basis of Assets, refer to Topic 703. A distribution generally qualifies as a return of capital if the corporation making the distribution does not have any accumulated or current year earnings and profits." (IRS Topic 404 - Dividends)
Shorting a stock setting new 52-week lows is a no-brainer, as in nobody with one would do it.
You're investing in the wrong industry if you don't want to hear talk about acquisitions. All producing wells decline, and a company is asking for trouble if it does not have a program to replace depleted assets. Acquiring assets for trading purposes has its merits, too.
So you are saying TSO beats and the share price does not go lower. Polly tells me the crackers are getting stale, TSO surprised on the downside in 2012 Q3 and Q4, and the BP Carson integration coupled with the Hawaii disposition may have been distractions in Q3. Adding to the equation Bill Klesse's claim of a low margin/low demand PADD V environment and North Dakota supply disruption possibly coloring 4Q guidance, I will risk waiting another week to hook up again with TSO.
You still would be using a Motorola DynaTac (aka "The Brick) to phone home and Mosaic to surf the web if everyone waited only for established players to move.
Spanking everyone upstream this morning, except LINE (which reported yesterday) and XOM.
Too late to predict, because it already happened, but I would have bet on HFC (+4% this week) ahead of TSO. Wish I had bought more HFC at $40, but TSO seemed more compelling at the time and, indeed, did win the race to $50. Klesse's West Coast overcapacity comment may subdue TSO action until that bunch can prove otherwise (next week).
I hardly can wait until Joe Gorder takes the helm. He has a marketing and supply background, like Greg Goff who has worked wonders at TSO after replacing a former CFO in the driver's seat.
The Cytosobents cartridge effectively removes cytokines without compromising patient safety/survival.
Pending feedback to my post below, I am concluding the recent $10-$15 per share price differential between TSO and VLO still applies. This does not imply in any way I am backing off my argument that TSO has not been the better trade over the past year. ;-)
Noticed the Credit Suisse report added $48 estimated value of logistics to TSO 2016 share price. Does not appear to account for TSO dropping down virtually all logistics assets to TLLP, which although a subsidiary of TSO, has a market value of its own (and which actually is 17% higher than Credit Suisse's estimated value). Should that amount be subtracted from TSO's upside? Thoughts anyone?