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Nxstage Medical, Inc. Message Board

avramj98 883 posts  |  Last Activity: Feb 2, 2016 4:24 PM Member since: May 19, 1998
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  • Reply to

    NEO is Hiring More Than Ever!

    by dollardazed Jan 30, 2016 3:54 PM
    avramj98 avramj98 Feb 2, 2016 4:24 PM Flag

    The other side of the coin here may be that "A new broom sweeps clean". Clarient was known to have some collection issues (hence the billing hires) and may have had some malcontents in the lab who were told where the door is if they didn't like new management. Time will tell.

  • Reply to

    NEO is Hiring More Than Ever!

    by dollardazed Jan 30, 2016 3:54 PM
    avramj98 avramj98 Feb 2, 2016 4:10 PM Flag

    That hospital deal is the wild card here. The business may be huge and I have already posted that NEO may have moved to by Clarient simply because they anticipated the huge jump in volume.

  • Reply to

    Mux pirce

    by bmcnally8 Jan 20, 2016 10:42 AM
    avramj98 avramj98 Jan 26, 2016 5:42 PM Flag

    Better to look at the relative percent gains for gold and for MUX. The kicker will be when gold can sustain a market price above around !400/oz as the percent profit per ounce mined for MUX will REALLY start to look good. Looking forward to THAT!

  • Reply to

    Blood tests for cancer

    by jjflojack Jan 12, 2016 6:37 AM
    avramj98 avramj98 Jan 14, 2016 9:43 AM Flag

    Know too that Illumina is not a clinical lab and neither will GRAIL, if I am reading the PR correctly. What I've read is that they will likely take their own brand of NexGen sequencing and pair it with their equipment to market machines that will conduct liquid biopsies. The PR states that they will be involved in TRIALS of liquid biopsy technology, meaning that they are not ready for marketing yet. Worst case scenario would be they have a superior set of machines that NEO would want in their labs.

  • Reply to

    Started position @7.51 on market dip.

    by johnandedy Jan 5, 2016 6:42 AM
    avramj98 avramj98 Jan 5, 2016 8:27 PM Flag

    If she does, I might pull the trigger on the next batch myself. I've been waiting for a top on NXTM, and it looks like it might still have another 10% up but then it'll be time to trade out.

  • finally moving on fundamentals rather than straight gold price. About time we got just a little respect.

  • Reply to

    Investment rationale for backing up the truck

    by avramj98 Dec 8, 2015 10:24 AM
    avramj98 avramj98 Dec 9, 2015 9:04 AM Flag

    That's about what I expect, Davidivy ($250-260 million). The share value will then depend on earnings, the fatter the better. One more unaccounted variable, if CMMI relents and increases reimbursement (after 2 years of cuts) even modestly, we are off to the races.

  • The company's value is still largely based upon their core business, which was based on analysts' views of their growth prior to two major developments. The first was an announcement that NEO had become the preferred provider for Premiere Inc., opening a market for lab testing in 3400 independent hospitals. The second was the announcement of the acquisition of Clarient from GE. It appears that in developing the deal with Premiere, NEO became aware of the need for a much larger lab infrastructure, hence the GE deal. Mgmt has been quite tight lipped about revenue projections, allowing only for a prediction of revenues based upon their old core business growth + the core business of Clarient. I suspect that growth will be much better because of the Premiere deal and Mgmt won't speculate about this until they have several quarters' worth of data on lab orders from this deal.

  • Reply to

    new to town

    by tomdaking5 Nov 11, 2015 12:49 AM
    avramj98 avramj98 Nov 11, 2015 1:44 PM Flag

    Been invested here since 2008. I think that the price changes will be small potatoes up or down until some news, next quarter's CC, or other development, so I would say, don't hesitate and buy in chunks now between the current price and what appears to be an upper band of $8.25. My view is that we have not baked in the acquisition yet or the Premiere deal. Both have big upside potential, barring news that the books for Clarient are a complete mess. Given mgmt's due diligence in the past, I don't see that happening and my view is that the "street" is in a wait and see mode until the 2016 outlook is clarified further. At any point going forward, a new buy from an institution (and I am certain that many are pouring over the details of our new developments) and/or a new research investment analysis recommendation will move this up.

  • Reply to

    Q3 report just put out on web.

    by hoss121028 Nov 5, 2015 6:26 AM
    avramj98 avramj98 Nov 5, 2015 11:09 AM Flag

    Been here a long time and agree that we are set up for much better days, but nothing will start today. We will see the return on our investment here as the price of gold rebounds. Now that we are profitable and cash flow positive, the market will reward as our operating margins improve with the price of gold.

    The world economies have been printing money for some time and the next inflationary cycle is bound to happen (as it always does). The Fed's coordinated work with other central banks has simply modified the time frame in which this will happen. They have been more successful that I would have expected, but one cannot deny the economics of increasing the amount of currency.

  • avramj98 avramj98 Nov 5, 2015 9:14 AM Flag

    The dividend reported on yahoo is a mistake. It is 1%. That said, we are a profitable miner moving forward unless gold prices crash below the "all in" cost. No need to borrow to get the money for Gold Bar, and movement(s) in gold price up will have bigger impact on share price.

  • Reply to

    I'm clueless

    by cyrussv Nov 2, 2015 9:38 AM
    avramj98 avramj98 Nov 2, 2015 11:40 AM Flag

    Well.....we'll see.

  • Reply to

    I'm clueless

    by cyrussv Nov 2, 2015 9:38 AM
    avramj98 avramj98 Nov 2, 2015 10:27 AM Flag

    Behaving EXACTLY as I would expect. The run starts today. We should see mid-teens before this run ends and then the consolidation news will start to shake out, with another run if the news is positive!

  • avramj98 by avramj98 Oct 29, 2015 9:33 AM Flag

    -25% growth in base(1) test volume

    -8% growth in consolidated revenue despite $1.9 million reduction in FISH reimbursement

    -12.5% reduction in Avg. Cost per Test in base(1) business

    -Adjusted EBITDA(2) increase to a record high $2.8 million and EPS of ($.00) per share

    -Average revenue per test decreased by 11.6%, primarily due to significant decreases in reimbursement for Fluorescence in-situ Hybridization ("FISH") testing

    -Consolidated gross margin for the quarter increased slightly compared with last year's third quarter to 44.5% despite the sharp reduction in average revenue per test. The gross margin improvement resulted from a 12.5% reduction in average cost-of-goods-sold per test ("Cost per Test") in the base business.

    The co. has demonstrated that it can operate without loss, drive costs down, increase margins, and continue to gain market share. All of this within the context of reimbursement challenges. While the top line numbers are less than I would have liked, the smart market analysis is that NEO will now have twice the volume base with which to apply their great cost containment and profit margin skills. NEO was smart to downplay the weaknesses of Clarient's capacity to generate revenue through clinical services but what I heard during that CC was that Clarient had troubles collecting fees from the same vendors with whom NEO already has relationships, suggesting that NEO will be able to drive much better revenue from the same level of business.

    The big breakout remains to occur for us and I don't anticipate this happening for at least several more quarters. I'm sure that many analysts will take a "wait and see" approach to the Clarient acquisition, waiting to see how NEO executes. I have no doubt that this execution will e spot on.

  • News is flying boys and girls. First, an amendment to the articles of Inc. and in rapid succession, news that the NEO/Covance deal will wind down along with a nice $2 million dollar severance check from LH to come this Nov. The CRO business is now being driven by the Clarient 1/2 of the co., which was Clarient's best piece of business. Not sure whether the wind down is because LH sees NEO as a more direct competitor, but glad to know that NEO had a withdrawal provision that is equal to about 8% of a quarters' revenue. Nice little addition to the 4th quarter!

  • Reply to

    A clue to a buy out?

    by fcarter5 Oct 28, 2015 7:08 PM
    avramj98 avramj98 Oct 28, 2015 9:08 PM Flag

    Doubt that this means a buyout is in the works. More likely, this is a provision requested (required) by GE as they become a bigger owner of NEO as the acquisition plays out. GE might want to e able to exercise a buyout at some future date if they so wish. More details certain to come tomorrow at the CC.

  • Reply to

    Bought some more

    by avramj98 Oct 23, 2015 9:59 AM
    avramj98 avramj98 Oct 27, 2015 7:44 PM Flag

    That is a thing of beauty!

  • avramj98 by avramj98 Oct 23, 2015 11:17 AM Flag

    I've been long for years and exited this morning. There are too many promising co's that deserve my attention and investment.

  • avramj98 by avramj98 Oct 23, 2015 9:59 AM Flag

    Just wish I had more money.

  • Reply to

    The next earnings report means nothing

    by cyrussv Oct 21, 2015 4:07 PM
    avramj98 avramj98 Oct 21, 2015 5:15 PM Flag

    I wouldn't be so sure. A pro forma results would mean nothing, but if they surprise on the upside and/or give any info on the Premiere deal like how fast the referrals are coming, it will grease the wheels and this rocket ship will start lifting off. Looking forward to next week!

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