A quick review of the numbers indicates that we continue to have robust growth despite the FISH reimbursement problems. The numbers are not outstanding (I would have hoped for a better Pathlogic contribution) but the core business in genetics testing, driven by the NextGen sequencing is exciting.
"Our volume of molecular testing, fueled by Next Generation Sequencing, increased by about 52% over last year and now is our largest testing category by volume. Our approach to molecular testing of using targeted profiles by disease category is becoming more widely accepted as a cost effective way to identify the key genetic drivers of cancer. Momentum was also strong in clinical trials testing. In fact, we were awarded more studies in the first quarter than in all of last year."
This speaks volumes.
I am neutral on the outlook for this. I have been around long enough to see this type of prospective new product either fail to meet expectations or fail to gain attention in the marketplace even if it does meet expectations. It will be an excellent additional arrow in NEO's quiver, but I want to see both good data AND a marketing plan that gets it into urologists' and pathologists' hands.
Revenues are too small at this point for management to consider any buyout. I am looking for more expansion through organic growth and acquisition. They just started a strategic partnership with Northwestern Univ. and my guess is that is a foot in the door in the Chicagoland area and a new independent lab will eventually open there. We need a presence in TX and greater exposure in the Northeast as well. If these come to pass, we will be much bigger, have revenues in the $250-350 million/yr range and THEN will be a buyout target.
Looks like there is still no real interest in this company even thought they are growing faster than expected. Happened last earnings announcement as well.
All things considered, we're still pretty thinly traded. Yahoo charting now shows buy side and sell side trades and the sell side trades are small. Looks like retail investors selling and the bigger chunks are buy side. I don't think in terms of mounting buy pressure but any good news on the business development will generate buy side pressure.
BRLI is a modestly bigger genetics testing lab in the same space. I thought the buyout price was low, only 2X trailing revenues for BRLI despite their healthy profitability. I hope we get a better price if/when a suitor comes along.
NeoGenomics Launches Twelve NeoLAB™ "Liquid Biopsy" Tests for Hematologic Diseases.
This looks like a very good suite of tests, targeted for a large at risk population (acute leukemia and related disorders) and has the market qualities that are attractive including convenience for patients, pricing (versus an invasive procedure), and follow-up monitoring uses. I will be very interested in hearing from mgmt about adoption over the next 4 quarters. This could easily become a $25 million/year level suite of tests. Too bad there is no surveillance akin to prescription writing that can give us an outside count of the number of tests ordered.
New board members, new stock options. Both of these look good, IMO. The new board members have bona fides and the CRC specialist looks to be a real addition to the line up of experts guiding the co. The vote on approval of new stock options looks reasonable with regard to the number of shares allowed and may be a good sign for employee incentives.
If $1100/oz gold is "the darkest before the storm" I would be quite happy. There is no model that I know of that provides an alternative to "the inflationary cycle" that has ALWAYS happened and will happen again, bringing gold to new highs. The QE process has generated a new trajectory of the inflationary cycle, lengthening it and mitigating the slope of inflation, but the cycle will eventually play out. $5 loaves of bread, $6/gallon gas and ground beef at $5/lb is in everyone's future,
Friday's volume was a reflection of NEO being added to the Russell 3000. The volume was well-managed by the market makers, otherwise such a huge buy would have meant a skyrocketing price.