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Nxstage Medical, Inc. Message Board

avramj98 26 posts  |  Last Activity: Aug 28, 2014 8:33 AM Member since: May 19, 1998
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  • avramj98 by avramj98 Jul 29, 2014 11:37 AM Flag

    Just some speculation here, but I've been a student of trading behavior and co. development for years. I have seen co's like ours get the initial boost we saw with the last quarter's numbers, make our run, sell off and settle (like we've done in the last week or so) and then shoot up again for no apparent reason. I wouldn't be surprised if we see a run on no news from the mid $5's to $7 or so.

  • avramj98 by avramj98 Jul 17, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    Hitting on ALL cylinders, the next couple of years will be quite exciting!!

  • Reply to

    As predicted, the march of positive news continues

    by avramj98 Jul 11, 2014 9:13 AM
    avramj98 avramj98 Jul 11, 2014 9:26 AM Flag

    This is classic "old school" mgmt. support of the company's public profile and exposure. Mgmt has been immaculate in their public communication, making sure the market knows EVERYTHING, good and bad about the company's developing business. They are managing this without making any foolish claims or boasts, but also leave no significant news in their pockets when the news is relevant to the business. Well played Bob and Steve!

  • Reply to

    NEO acquired Path Logic Labs.

    by s_gator03 Jul 8, 2014 5:07 PM
    avramj98 avramj98 Jul 8, 2014 11:09 PM Flag

    Love the news, I've wanted to see an acquisition for some time. The cost is nominal and the size is perfect for our co. We get facilities, revenue, Dr.'s and new referrals for a pittance. I'm celebrating the $4.20 close the right way ;)

  • Reply to

    Tested 4.00

    by ou71764 Jul 10, 2014 11:51 AM
    avramj98 avramj98 Jul 10, 2014 3:21 PM Flag

    I like the behavior of the trading I'm seeing. I'm not a trader but have observed this type of behavior in the past. We are generating a head of steam and any upside news during the CC and we will test $5 and above. LOVING this!

  • Reply to

    Good news, but odd timing on the PR

    by ou71764 Jun 23, 2014 8:44 AM
    avramj98 avramj98 Jun 23, 2014 12:48 PM Flag

    And just one small addition to the thought here. The PR appears to be reporting organic growth in clinical services without any contribution from the Covance deal. The CVD alliance is still a potentially BIG upside source of new business and the timing here may be setting the stage for expectations on both the organic growth of the clinical services component of the co. AND the developing CVD alliance. I recall that the CVD alliance would start to bare fruit in the second half of the year, looking forward to what is said about this during the CC.

  • avramj98 avramj98 Jun 25, 2014 2:11 PM Flag

    As I posted elsewhere, I don't give a rat's #$%$ about profitability at this point, so long as they keep at break even. I had a conversation (this was about 5 years ago), with the opportunity to speak with Steve Jones when the co. was much smaller (and he answered the phone himself) , and he was CFO and Investor Relations contact. We talked about his mgmt. philosophy. He told me that he had the approach of growing the co. but not at the cost of negative cash flow/profits. He also said (at the time) that any co. growth over 25% YOY would risk having "the wheels fall off" regarding control and quality of the product, and he wanted to see to it that he kept this from happening. Given the co. track record since then, he has stayed true to this philosophy, with only some bumps along the way, created both internally (those old timers here may recall that the co. hired a sales VP that was a disaster) and externally (the Medicare changes as an example.) Steve has shown that his team can manage growth and innovation and they will continue to carve out more and more market share as they go.

    While I am firmly committed to this investment, I try to remember that we are still tiny, and that scale is necessary before we truly get the bang from our investment buck. The co. is approaching $100 million/yr revenue, which is a good milestone, but we need to triple that before we become a real player in this space. Given that I've been here since the co. was at $8 million/yr, and the share price was 70 cents/share, I am quite satisfied with the co. execution thus far. If the Russell 3000 is dropping us, I see this as a mindless decision (probably computer algorithm generated) and rare buying opportunity.

    Best to all,
    aj

  • Reply to

    Offering

    by pikuspapa Aug 20, 2014 5:34 PM
    avramj98 avramj98 Aug 20, 2014 5:56 PM Flag

    The company has long stated that they were interested in consolidating small private labs into their company. They recently purchased a small lab in Northern CA for a song. My guess is that they have another one in their sites. This is a business sector where the small labs will eventually perish and the larger labs will continue to buy out the mid-sized labs. NEO's goal, from a business standpoint is to grow large enough to become attractive to one of the big players (IMO), or continue to grow until they are a big player in their own right.

  • Reply to

    Is NEO being deleted from Russell 2000 ??

    by amerelhaija Jun 24, 2014 4:10 PM
    avramj98 avramj98 Jun 24, 2014 4:23 PM Flag

    Yup! I just found it on the Russell 3000 deletion list as of 6/20/14. Google "Russell 3000 additions and deletions and find it there. Step forward, step back. I say, not a big deal the business will build the value. Actually, a rare buying opportunity, wishing I had more liquid capital and hoping for a pop elsewhere so I can trade some bigger profits out (both of my other big biotech investments are doing quite well but are in need of more consist good news.)

  • avramj98 avramj98 Jun 23, 2014 11:00 PM Flag

    Yags, I posted on Ihub that I've been in since 2007, DCA of 70cents/share and the co. did $8 million/year. We're now at north of $80 million/yr and share price should grow back to the $5-7/share by year's end. From where I stand, this has been a GREAT investment. Let the short-termers and momo investors come and go, we can sit back, make money, and smile!

  • NEO continues with their development of innovative testing. the NextGen sequencing skillset that they are developing (which is the fastest growing part of their revenue stream) continues to impress and continues to demonstrate their leadership in this space. Here's the headline:

    NeoGenomics Expands Next Generation Sequencing Services and Offers 23 Different Profiles for Various Hematologic and Solid Cancers

    Company Provides Widest Variety of Actionable Next-Gen Cancer Profiles.

  • Reply to

    Welcome to the stock market!!

    by avramj98 Jul 17, 2014 4:38 PM
    avramj98 avramj98 Jul 17, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    Hoping for better than that. Historically, we've risen from $1.50 at the start of 2012 to today's high, a better than 3X return. I'm looking for another 3X return in the next 2 year time frame, and, barring big changes in reimbursement, another 2X return between 2016-18 (so, yes, I want to see a share value of $30/share by 2018.) Mgmt is razor sharp, acquisitions, innovations and organic growth have all been excellent! I've not listened to the CC yet (still at work finishing up with my last patient) but reading that mgmt. has been GIVING their new prostate test away to oncologists in return for data is #$%$ BRILLIANT!! You want to establish a need for your product, GIVE IT AWAY AT FIRST!

  • Reply to

    Is NEO the next Covance (CVD)?

    by zordiac99 Aug 6, 2014 3:14 PM
    avramj98 avramj98 Aug 7, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    Run its course? Its just out of the gaits! Now, let's just see how she runs.

  • avramj98 avramj98 Jul 21, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    Hey Bill! Glad to see you on the board, which probably means you've made some good money here. I see posts from Dflawed every once in a while on the MUX board, but that's it. He was such a rabid anti-Obama guy that I stopped following his posts on FB. Glad to hear from you.

  • Reply to

    Stock is way ahead ot itself

    by nosmrtelks Jul 9, 2014 1:21 PM
    avramj98 avramj98 Jul 9, 2014 11:59 PM Flag

    Only a fool would value this GROWTH company by it's P/E. This is a growth and innovation tech co., plain and simple.

  • Reply to

    As predicted, the march of positive news continues

    by avramj98 Jul 11, 2014 9:13 AM
    avramj98 avramj98 Jul 11, 2014 12:31 PM Flag

    In fact, if the new products were related to HDVY, I think that NEO mgmt. would have to disclose this.

  • Reply to

    What trade at the bell

    by db20091951 Jun 27, 2014 4:08 PM
    avramj98 avramj98 Jun 27, 2014 7:47 PM Flag

    Yup, something's definitely up. Another million or so after the bell including several blocks over 100K shares. It is a good time for striking business development (unless NeoScore or their genetics evaluation program has gained a license), if so, I hope that it is an acquisition or merger rather than a buyout.

  • avramj98 avramj98 Jul 17, 2014 10:40 PM Flag

    Funny, 2 posts from me have been removed today, a reply to this idiot was one of them, but the other was reasonable. This gut showing up today is a 100% indicator that we have made a splash.

  • We are due for some news, either drilling results or other business development. Anything good and we are bound to go up. I am also waiting to see what Argentina does to solve their bond debt problem. They will either come up with something drastic and ugly for business (which I doubt) or will decide on something that is more business friendly. If that happens, all those sideliners will jump in and we will see a nice pop in price.

  • Missed this announcement from 8/26. This may explain the public offering and raised funds. Termination of a credit facility means that the co. no longer has to pay for credit services. In the evolution of the co., I would imagine that some type of credit services will need to be available (the co.'s revenues are dependent on a cash flow model that is similar to retail businesses, with a wide spectrum of income sources and uncertain payment timing), but the co. is now better to negotiate terms that favor them (i.e. we park our cash with you and you give US interest on our deposits rather than having to pay for our credit).
    Read on,
    "On August 26, 2014, that certain Amended and Restated Revolving Credit and Security Agreement, dated April 26, 2010 (as amended, the "Credit Agreement"), by and between NeoGenomics Laboratories, Inc., Path Labs, LLC ("Path Labs"), NeoGenomics, Inc., a Nevada corporation (the "Registrant," and collectively with NeoGenomics Laboratories, Inc. and Path Labs, the "Company") and CapitalSource Finance, LLC was terminated at the option of the Company. The Credit Agreement set forth the terms of a credit facility whereby NeoGenomics Laboratories, Inc. and Path Labs were borrowers and the Registrant served as guarantor thereunder. All amounts owed by the Company under such credit facility were paid in full prior to the termination of the Credit Agreement."

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