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EZCORP, Inc. Message Board

axpkocop 111 posts  |  Last Activity: 23 hours ago Member since: Aug 24, 2008
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  • Reply to

    Is anyone going to buy at $9

    by smithts777 Jul 21, 2014 12:54 PM
    axpkocop axpkocop 23 hours ago Flag

    Yes, I bought more here but sold call options against those new shares. Cost about 9.6/share plus the option premium of .65/share.

    Also sold cash secured put options against it today in my IRAs.

    Grandma also owns some shares but she was already short covered call options.

    This is a cigar butt company which hopefully has a few puffs left.

  • Reply to

    Grandma's back in RAI

    by axpkocop Jul 18, 2014 11:47 AM
    axpkocop axpkocop Jul 21, 2014 9:12 AM Flag

    Talk about your poor timing-RAI lost a $26 billion lawsuit because a smoker died.

    Grandma may have to start smoking so she too can sue.

    In other news-hop picking starts in about one month.

  • Reply to

    Grandma's back in RAI

    by axpkocop Jul 18, 2014 11:47 AM
    axpkocop axpkocop Jul 18, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    I checked her RAI history and she sold in in April of 2012 in the low 40s.

    That's why she was only up 17% last year and about 8% this year because of trades like that.

  • Reply to

    Grandma Sold 90% of her COP shares

    by axpkocop Jul 18, 2014 11:15 AM
    axpkocop axpkocop Jul 18, 2014 12:51 PM Flag

    She's also long BX and short some January 35 call options against half her shares. BX traded over 35 now and I bought her more shares to help replace the shares I assume will be called away next year. Selling call options can be very frustrating.

    She does have an IBM July 195 call option that expires worthless today so she occasionally makes $$.

  • Reply to

    Grandma Sold 90% of her COP shares

    by axpkocop Jul 18, 2014 11:15 AM
    axpkocop axpkocop Jul 18, 2014 11:57 AM Flag

    I kind of dropped the ball. I was selling put options against it in other accounts but COP just kept running.

    Most of her gains are long term this year so buying back the call options for a loss wouldn't have helped her much.

  • She took a 1.25% position in RAI today at 58.2/share. She likes the LO deal.

    She sold some COP shares to fund the purchase. She's currently only 4% cash. She's now has over 22% of her assets invested in tobacco-PM, LO, RAI, MO and IMPERIAL TOB.

  • It was called away for the dividend yesterday because she was short the July 72.5 call options-certainly not her best move. The remaining shares are all more than paid for via profits.

    Cash now makes up more than 5% of her assets with potential WW3 brewing.

  • axpkocop axpkocop Jul 18, 2014 9:45 AM Flag

    If you like their E-cigs perhaps you should look at Imperial as I have.

    As far as LO goes- in my opinion it's a wonderful place to wait out the next correction in the market which may have already started.

  • Reply to

    RAI NEEDS to Raise about $11 Billion for LO Deal

    by axpkocop Jul 16, 2014 11:58 AM
    axpkocop axpkocop Jul 17, 2014 2:04 AM Flag

    It's not as bad as I originally thought with regards to debt because the British are coming-"RAI also announced today that it has reached an agreement with Imperial, the fourth-largest international tobacco company, under which Imperial has agreed to purchase the KOOL, Salem, Winston, Maverick and blu eCigs brands and other assets and liabilities for a total consideration of $7.1 billion in cash. RAI expects to receive net cash proceeds of approximately $4.4 billion after taxes. The addition of these brands to Imperial's U.S. operations will more than triple its share of the U.S. cigarette market, position it for long-term success in traditional tobacco products and the growing e-cigarette category, and elevate it to the status of a major U.S. competitor for the first time.

    As part of the divestiture, Imperial will acquire certain assets owned by Lorillard including its manufacturing and R&D facilities in Greensboro, N.C., and approximately 2,900 employees, including a national sales force. The closing of the sale of these assets to Imperial is conditioned upon, among other things, RAI's completion of the acquisition of Lorillard.

    BAT, RAI's largest shareholder, has reiterated its strong confidence in the prospects of RAI and is fully supportive of, and has agreed to vote its shares in favor of, the transaction. As part of the transaction, BAT will maintain its 42 percent ownership in RAI through an investment of approximately $4.7 billion (based on RAI's closing share price of $60.16 as of July 2, 2014, the same share price used to determine the stock component of Lorillard shareholders' consideration."

    After issuing new shares to BAT and netting $4.4 billion selling assets to Imperial they'll only need around $8 billion.

    There's money to be made in these three stocks especially if they're able to raise cheap money. Buy on any weakness.

  • Reply to

    sold LO @ $62.39 for a 55.38% long term gain...

    by cbranche63 Jul 15, 2014 3:50 PM
    axpkocop axpkocop Jul 16, 2014 3:57 PM Flag

    I'm in DE as well and I bought more LO today at 60 in two of my IRAs.

    LO is a great place to park money until we see a correction in the market.

  • Reply to

    LO and RAI Deal

    by axpkocop Jul 15, 2014 3:17 PM
    axpkocop axpkocop Jul 16, 2014 3:54 PM Flag

    Good luck with ROC--K in the USA. LOL

    I did buy more LO at 60 in both IRA #2 and the Roth portion of IRA #4 today. Both accounts are over 9% LO now. If it trades under 60 I'll buy more next week after the expiration of options this Friday.

    In this market with it trading at all time highs, I'll settle for the 4% dividend until the deal is concluded which should give me another 10% plus gain in the form of RAI shares which I'd also love to own.

  • Remember to stock up on See's Gift Certificates before Christmas. Buffett raises prices ever year shortly after in early January.

  • How much will all that new debt cost them?

    The deal will cost them $17 billion plus the issuance of about 105 million in new RAI shares or about $6 billion in new capital. They're selling off assets that equal $7 billion but I'm sure there are some taxes due, so I'm estimating they'll need at least $11 billion but perhaps it could be more.

    If they're able to issue debt with a 4-5% coupon then RAI is a buy. If it cost them over 8% it's a sell and anything in between I'd give it a hold.

    Buy RAI-LO is my new motto and sell it high when it's bought out by Sunprance.

  • Reply to

    sold LO @ $62.39 for a 55.38% long term gain...

    by cbranche63 Jul 15, 2014 3:50 PM
    axpkocop axpkocop Jul 15, 2014 4:30 PM Flag

    Good move.

    LO should prove to be an excellent place to park cash for the next 10-12 months.

  • axpkocop by axpkocop Jul 15, 2014 3:17 PM Flag

    LO is 60.6 now giving it a 4% dividend yield.

    Owners of it have about a 70% chance of seeing the deal completed due to possible antitrust issues.

    They'll receive 50.5 per share in cash and 29.29% of a RAI share for each of their LO shares.

    This is my kind of deal-meaning there's $$$ to be made.

  • Reply to

    Life After the LO/RAI Merger

    by axpkocop Jul 14, 2014 3:12 PM
    axpkocop axpkocop Jul 15, 2014 11:33 AM Flag

    Agreed, I'll go with next May and there's a 30% chance the deal may not get done due to anti trust issues.

    Note- The ITYBY shares I bought yesterday are also down about $3 per share to around 91.

  • Reply to

    Life After the LO/RAI Merger

    by axpkocop Jul 14, 2014 3:12 PM
    axpkocop axpkocop Jul 15, 2014 9:06 AM Flag

    NEW YORK (MarketWatch) --" Reynolds American Inc. RAI -2.50% will buy Lorillard Inc. LO -5.03% in a $27.4 billion deal that includes assumption of net debt, the tobacco companies said on Tuesday. The transaction, which is currently valued at $68.88 per Lorillard share, had been on expected after the two companies confirmed that they were in merger talks. For each share of Lorillard, investors will receive $50.50 in cash and 0.2929 shares of Reynolds stock."

    Good times for tobacco investors.

    Is it time to buy more RAI?

  • Deal should be finalized soon thus giving me lots of new cash to work with.

    Today I bought more--Imperial Tobacco Group plc--ITYBY, in two of my accounts because I believe they'll be one of the main benefactors of the LO and RAI marriage.

    I now own ITYBY in three of my accounts with more buys to follow soon.

  • Reply to

    Any final merger guesses?

    by boar292hog Jul 11, 2014 9:57 AM
    axpkocop axpkocop Jul 11, 2014 10:44 AM Flag

    I'll go with 71.50 consisting of half stock-RAI and the balance in cash. They may also give investors the option to take a higher ratio of stock rather than $$.

  • Reply to

    Anyone follow or own CMI--CUMMINS INC?

    by axpkocop Jul 8, 2014 4:25 PM
    axpkocop axpkocop Jul 8, 2014 9:16 PM Flag

    I may add it to my portfolio.

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