With only two trading days left till ex (11 1/2 % payout) NRP was down almost four percent today. The very worst of all other coal stocks (BTU, ACI, ANR, WLT etc) NRP short interest is up 42% over the past 30 days. Short term traders are getting out NOW!. NRP will trade between $5 and $10 over the next few months. Those companies that lease from NRP are shutting mines.
The coal business (thermal and met) gets worse each day.
Every few days coal stocks get a bounce. Yesterday, it was short covering. Today the crash continues.. No improvement in sight for coal business fundamentals. BTU SHARE PRICE WILL CONTINUE TO CRASH. All other company shares too..
Would think that the $6 billion write off in Clf's 3rd quarter results writes the met coal inventories down to zero.
Walter Industries reported this morning. Lost slightly less than street expected. Revenue was slightly less than street expected. WLT is considered a pure play on met coal. Like others in the coal industry, WLT is trying to cut costs and survive until the coal business improves. Believe WLT's share price will drop below $1 over the next few days.
Dow up 52 (back above 17.000). Coal stocks mostly down. NRP continues to tank on very heavy volume. Need to get out today or tomorrow to avoid the crash after ex date. Good move up the past three days for natural gas. Don't know why. Watch NG inventories to be reported at 10:30.
The coal fundamentals get worse each day. Yesterday WLT moved up after reporting and then crashed. ANR crashed today. The objective of most coal companies seems to be to borrow enough money to get them into 2018 (highlighted in WLT's post 3rd quarter reporting comments). Somehow they think that big improvement in the coal market is coming. NRP is going down also. Just hope they can keep a good percentage of the current distribution (would be happy with a dollar.
Was happy to see NRP's VP of human resources buy a few shares of NRP recently. The officers who replaced Nick Carter might have been coerced, but don't believe the same about the young lady who runs the personnel department.
WLT reported results yesterday (better than street expected). Shares moved up and then CRASHED.. ANR reported today. Stock crashed. Goal of all coal company CEOs is to borrow enough money to get then to 2018.
BTU IS TRADING TWENTY FIVE CENTS ABOVE A RECORD LOW. THE LOW FOR BTU IS NOT NOW IN SIGHT. Like all other coal company CEOs, Boyce is sitting on his thumbs waiting for things to get better.
Dow up 139 to record high. ALL COAL STOCKS CRASHING. BTU (largest US coal company) at record low.
NRP continues to crash on above average volume. Will go ex next Monday. Natural gas still moving up and near $4. Good news for the thermal coal business.
If you owned NRP shares at the close today, you will get the distribution November 14th. Stock price will start the big move down next week. After ex last quarter, NRP shares dropped more than 35%. Will see a big drop this quarter also. Coal fundamentals get worse every day.. Several coal stocks trading pennies from a record low (BTU, ACI, ANR etc). All will continue to see more new lows.
NRP will report 3rd quarter results after the close on Tuesday (11/4). Whether they make or miss, shares will trade below $10 before year end.
For what ir's worth.
1. I believe that coal stocks will get a short term bounce IF the Republicans gain control of the Senate (and keep the House).
2 ! also believe that coal stocks will crash if Democrats keep the Senate.
3. In the long run, coal fundamentals (met and thermal) must improve if coal stocks are to get an extended move up. If fundamentals do not improve coal stocks like ACI, BTU, ANR and WLT will bankrupt.. Don't know if NRP would survive but they WILL kill the payout. I see NO improvement in fundamentals in sight at this time. Coal company CEOs are trying to borrow enough money to carry their company a couple of years when they HOPE that the coal business will improve.
4. Hope you get it right with your trade (if you make one) jrad. Do believe that you are one of the "sharper knives in the drawer" (learned that term from my 12 year old grandsone)
The elections and NRP earnings. Earnings is the more important number. Through the second quarter NRP had revenue of $170 million, earnings of 57 cents and DCF od $104 million. When NRP announced the recent acquisition they said that for the year 2014 revenue will be between $370 and $390 million and DCF between $205 and $230 million. Did not mention earnings. Have no idea what the numbers will be tomorrow but a miss with earnings or revenue will be very bad for share price.
NRP results will be announced after the close tomorrow night,. Election results too.
3rd quarter numbers okay. What's next?
NRP shares went ex yesterday. Shares have now lost more than 2 times payout. If history repeats ill continue to tank. Share price below $10 soon.
NRP's third quarter results beat the street and the Republicans won the Senate. Can't get much better for the coal business. Yesterday, ACI and ANR had big moves up while NRP crashed on very big volume. Hope NRP does better today. Do not believe that we have yet seen the low share price for the year. All of the good news overnight has not changed coal fundamentals. Appalachian coal mines will shut if the price of met and thermal coal does not move up.
Continue to appreciate your analysis of the coal businesses, jrad. Also the other contributors to this board.
Dow up 39 to new record high. Good move up for some coal stocks (ANR up 9%). NRP has regained half yesterday's loss on very big volume. Going lower. That's what NRP has done each quarter for the past four years. Natural gas continues to move up.