"SELL, SELL, SELL!!! Jim Cramer said that again tonight on Mad Money. He has
held that position since December 2011. He has been right. "The world is going to
live with less coal". Seeking Alpha contributor said that tonight. He also said that
BTU has gone from $10 to $8 to $5.50 and now he says we're going to $3. Seeking Alpha
contributor is correct. THE COAL BUSINESS IS CHANGING AND BTU LEADERS
HAVE NO PLAN TO DEAL WITH THE CHANGE.
Should add, jrad, "cost" me means "fully loaded".. Just can't get a handle
on when the ng drillers will stop drilling. Thank you anyway.
NOT ONE COAL COMPANY IN THE UNITED STATES WILL SURVIVE WITH COAL
PRICES AT THIS LEVEL. BTU will follow ACI, ANR and WLT into the gutter.
Need someone to do some research for me!. How many shares of BTU was
our leader, Boyce Gregory, picking up this week as our shares crashed to new
lows day after day after day????
Dow down 23. Crude up but natural gas dropping. Coal stocks mixed but BTU at record low after
reporting big misses for the quarter on income and revenue. They believe that thermal coal
usage in the US in 2015 will be down 80 to 100 million tons. No improvement until 2017. Seems
like all of the coal companies are trying to borrow enough money to get them through 2017. BTU
believes natural gas prices will be up by then. Don't know why they believe that. NRP shares
up slightly in early trading.
One final word, jrad. You know that I look at things much more simplistically
than you. NRP had $50 million in cash on 12/31/2014. They need $450 million
over three years to meet the $500 million (2015, 2016 1nd 2017). DCF in
2014 was about $217 million. They need $150 million per year to come up
with the $500 million ($50 on hand plus $150 per year). Will say again that
if there is no improvement in the price of the energy commodities (coal, crude
and ng) NRP is history anyway. In my opinion, there is a 50% chance that
NRP will bankrupt. The US coal business seems to bee going the way
that the US textile industry went.
Would remind you, jrad that NRP's dcf guidance is $175 to 200 million. At $200 million
they would have enough to cover the $500 million (200 X 2.8). If the coal business doesn't
get better, NRP will bankrupt by the end of 2017 as will most other US coal companies.
Noticed that BTU made a new record low today. Seems like all of the coal companies
are trying to borrow enough money to get them through 2017.
Don't know why we didn't get along for such a long time, donna. Believe
you are a sharp lady.
About the $300 million revolving bank credit facility. Am assuming that
NRP is not likely to ever use this. Do you agree??
Thank you donna. Wonder why they would not use 100% of the "money saved"
to pay down debt???
Seriously, I do like Kathy Roberts. Have never spoken to her but she has responded
promptly to my emails. Also, she bought NRP shares in December.
Dow down 12. Crude down but holding above $55. Natural gas up
slightly. Coal stocks mixed EXCEPT NRP which is of course crashing.
Will buy again when insiders start buying. Don't believe that insiders
can trade until a couple of days after 1st qtr results are announced (mid May).
In the last 24 hours, we found out that Patriot Coal will bankrupt again, RNO is downgraded to a "sell",
BTU management will take a cut in salary and NRP is slashing the distribution. Still, most coal companies
are losing hundreds of millions of dollars each quarter and THERE IS NO IMPROVEMENT IN FUNDAMENTALS
IN SIGHT. Just a matter of time till NRP eliminates distribution and bankrupts if coal prices do not
This morning Patriot Coal is said to be going through another restructuring (bankruptcy)
and RNO is downgraded to a "sell". Patriot leases from NRP and RNO mines in Appalachia.
Gregory Boyce and his cronies are taking a pay cut through the next eight months. Only solid idea
that Gregory has ever had BUT IT WILL NOT SAVE THE COAL INDUSTRY.. Massive inventories of
thermal and met coal! THAT IS THE PROBLEM, GREGORY. We need a leader with fresh new
ideas. We need to replace Gregory Boyce.