Dow up 41. Crude and ng moving up. Big move up for most coal
stocks EXCEPT NRP. NRP opened up 7 cents but now dropping.
Thought we might see $3 before ex (15 trading days). Doesn't
look like we will get there.
You are ALWAYS correct jrad. Have INVESTED in NRP for almost five years. Will also
tell you that I have been in the market since 1965 and have never shorted one stock.
My only problem with the elimination of the distribution is that the next step is bankruptcy.
The coal, crude and ng producers who lease from NRP are losing money. If the dollar
continues to strengthen, it will hurt the soda ssh business too. Seems like ALL of the coal,
crude and ng producers are doing nothing but waiting and hoping that their markets will improve.
My solution for years (as you know) has been to produce less. Do admit that I am not "the sharpest
knife in the drawer". Will stay with NRP, however,, and wait and hope. Hope you will hang
around too jrad.
Better question is how much coal price has dropped. Do know that BTU
has lost more than half a billion dollars last 12 months and are projected'
to lose as much over the next 12 months ($150 million in quarter'
just ended). NEED NEW MANAGEMENT!
Morgan Stanley today said that US thermal coal consumption will be
constant at 774 million tons 2015 through 2020. Two years ago,
US coal consumption was 1.1 TRILLION tons. BTU cannot
survive with. Morgan Stanley's estimate. Also, our crack
weather forecasters are forecasting a very mild winter.
With present management, BTU is going down.
For years, NRP management pointed up each quarter the ll million acres
of land with which they have mineral rights. Have seen no mention
recently/ I emailed the company for comment but have had NO response
to my email. Have had prompt response to other recent emails. Have
to assume that the 11 million acre investment with International Paper
is now a dead issue.
1. Window is closed for insider buying until November 11th (two trading days after
3rd quarter results are reported).
2. Wyatt Hogan, President and Chief Operating Officer made more than $800,000
last year. He owns less than $30,000 worth of units. To me, that means that
he sees unit price going much lower. Furthermore Corbin Robertson is running NRP.
He doesn't need Hogan and Hogan should be fired. I have no quarrel with
the unit ownership of other NRP officers but it does seem that they would be
buying at the $2.50 level.
Here's when you can buy NRP units:
1. When met coal reaches $150 per ton
2. When crude trades above $75
3. When ng trades significantly above $3.
In short, until fundamentals improve NRP units will continue
to crash. If there is NEVER improvement from present prices
of met coal, ng, and or crude NRP WILL BANKRUPT.
Just mauled BTU again (Mad Money - CNBC). Cramer has been right about
coal for 4 years. BTU IS GOING BANKRUPT. DuPont fired their CEO today
after their share price dropped 33%. BTU shares have dropped more than 95%
and ALL management is still in place and still drawing big salaries (and even
Dow up 186. Big move up fro crude ng and some coal stocks. NRP was
the ONLY stock in the universe that did not open up (opened flat). NRP
now up on extremely low volume. If volume picks up, NRP shares will crash.
Appreciate your comments jrad. You ar the best.
Believe ANR plans to come out of chapter 11
and continue with their coal business. Good news
for NRP I would think. Hard to find a positive with
any of the fossil fuel businesses (coal, ng and crude). Most are losing
money but continue to "protect market share".
My big issue with NRP right now is that Hogan (Pres. & COO)
is not buying shares (units) Means to me that he does not
see a turnaround coming for NRP.
NRP's recent performance is really ugly. Note:
1 Dow up 200 points today.
2 ALL coal stocks up today EXCEPT NRP.
3. NRP shares down 10 of last 11 trading days (almost 25%) with only 20 trading
days till ex.
3. NRP shares trading 23 cents above historic record low.
4..10 year fed funds below 2% while NRP shares yield more than 14%.
Obviously sellers of NRP shares believe that the distribution is
AS I HAVE POINTED OUT SEVERAL TIMES, NRP MANAGEMENT IS NO
LONGER BUYING NRP SHARES. The President and Chief Operating
Officer owns only $27,000 of NRP shares while he made more than
$800,000 last year. He obviously has no hope that NRP can survive and
he should be fired. Share price has dropped 85% since he took over
Moody's said today that 2015 EBITDA for coal shares are down 25% and will
be down another 10% in 2016.. Don't know what coal companies they are
using but these numbers will break most coal companies not already
More bad news: The BTU reverse split was effective today. Stock
spit 1 for 15 and dropped 15%.