more like wishful HOPING that BTU leaders will give shareholders something new and different as to how they will turn the coal business around. Have heard the 'when coal recovers" for four years.
NRP to pay the regular distribution (35 cents). Means that shareholders will get a 4.25% return on the year even if NRP kills the distribution the rest of the year. Will buy a few more shares tomorrow if I can buy below $8.25.
Next shoe to drop will be Obama's State of The Union address next Tuesday. He will continue to destroy the coal industry.
Let me be the first to announce:
BTU will bankrupt right after WLT, ANR and ACI (in that order). As I said yesterday, BTU management will assure us today that they are positioned to do better when the coal market turns around. They did that today. Today's guidance from BTU management was pathetic. THEY HAVE NO PLAN TO SAVE OUR COMPANY.
1. The Street today kept the "hold" rating on shares of NRP. I expected a cut.
2. After owning 1.6 million shares, Bank of America was completely out of NRP last summer. Latest report shows
that they are back in and now own 619,000 shares. Hope the insiders start to buy again.
1. NRP Corporate Officers have bought large numbers of shares over the past few days (Corbin Robertson111 50,000). Would think that they are confident that 4th qtr numbers (rev., inc., cash flo etc) look okay and that at least the February distribution is safe..
2. Wonder who is trading the abnormally high number of shares (3X average daily volume).
A. Short interest slightly above 1%
B. No significant options transactions
3. Recent acquisition effective mid quarter. Will not hurt entire 4thqtr results.
NRP has moved lower than I thought for 2014. As I have said before, NRP shares will trade between $5 an $10 in 2015. Will trade back to $10 before ex (31 trading days).
Oil and natural gas down 5%. NRP down almost 6%. Goldman Sachs say that crude goes to $40. Only $6 to from here and will probably see that this week. The Street says that crude is going lower. Natural gas headed to $2.50 even with cold weather around the country. And NRP is 77 cents above a record low. Should note that WLL was down almost 13% today. They run the Bakken operation that we just acquired.
Much of CNBC's programming has been about energy since mid December. Most guest analysts put the bottom for crude about 6 months out. Almost total negativity at this time for crude, natural gas and coal.
Look what happened with the forecast of a few warm days! As I said, a warm winter will wipe out most coal companies. Most closed today within pennies of a record low.
Analyst on CNBC this morning can remember when oil companies paid customers to take n/g. Dennis Gartmen on CNBC's Fast Money sees a "2 handle" on n/g. We are going much lower!
Coal shares now tied to crude price. WTI crude has dropped in 50 days from $110 to $49. Many analyst now see crude in the $30s (ie Dennis Gartman). If coal fundamentals do not improve, ACI, ANR, WLT and CLF will bankrupt in 2015. BTU will survive but trade under $5 in much of 2015.
Natural gas has dropped more than 30% over the past few weeks. T. Boone Pickens was interviewed on CNBC this morning. He said that ng out of the Bakkens is already trading below $2. Looks for improvement in 12 to 18 months In the meantime, many coal companies will bankrupt. BTU will trade around $5.
Need Gregory Boyce to tell us AGAIN how much the world needs coal! What we really need is for all coal companies to shut the mines until coal prices move up. The dow has exploded upward over the past two days while BTU and other coal companies have tanked and are headed to record lows. Mr Gregory and other coal company ceos are sitting on their hands HOPING that the coal business will get better. Has not worked,in the past and will not work.in the future. Mr Boyce runs the world's biggest coal company. He needs to take the lead.
Yahoo is probably not wrong. At the time of the "buy" rating. BB&T and their subsidiary Scott & Stringfellow
owned more than 3 million shares of NRP. Believe they sold the last of their shares a few months ago. Would not downgrade while they owned shares. Must say, however, that a "hold" rating is the best that I have seen for a coal
company recently. NRP is going to get more downgrades. No positives in sight for the coal business.