Dow down 15. Most coal stocks up. Big news today for coal is the sell by Consol Energy of 5 West Virginia coal mines. Got more money than I would have expected for mines in Appalachia.
NRP trading above $21.
Big move down for natural gas. Warm weather forecast.
Dow up 61. Most coal stocks down (WLT, CLF and NRP up). NRP is now up five consecutive days. Average move up is 11 cents per share per day. No big deal considering the big distribution coming up (going ex in just 4 trading days). Good move up today for natural gas.
I could be wrong but believe that Oak Grove production is less than 5% of NRP lessee's total
production (about 1 million tons annually). At the beginning of 2013 NRP management stated in their guidance that they expected mine closures by some of their lessees. I wonder at what price coal has to get before we see closures. Believe most lessees have overproduced in the first two quarters.
That probably will not continue. MY guess is that most of the met and thermal coal coming from NRP mines has been contracted at higher than current spot prices. Like CLF, other NRP lessees will soon cut production till coal prices move up.
CLF missed on income but beat on revenue. Positive comments about China's steel industry. CLF leases
mines from NRP. Only lessee making money. Not on coal but on iron ore. CLF share trading up in aftermarket.
Big up day for the dow and some coal stocks (WLT and ANR up more than 5%). After trading down most of the day, NRP finally closed up 10 cents. Disappointing for a stock going ex in 5 trading days
At 3 pm note
1. The dow is up 110
2. Most coal stocks are up
3. PVR is up (after a weak report)
4 CAT is up more than a dollar (after a weak report earlier)
5 Motley Fools and "The Street" like NRP
6. Five trading days till ex
ALL OF THE ABOVE AND NRP IS TRADING IN THE RED AND NEAR THE LOW OF THE DAY. Traders are pricing in the elimination of the distribution (next year).
Now you know that I don't look at the details like you do, jrad. Still, a 2% drop in volume isn't good considering the awful 2012 numbers. Also, the news from Australia was very bad for US coal
exports. Overall, I thought that the comments from NSC were negative for coal stocks.
Did a little better today than yesterday. Six trading days till ex. Some other coal stocks recovered and had reasonably good days even with the VERY negative news from Caterpillar and Norfolk Southern. Natural
gas was up slightly.
Today, NSC reported excellent 3rd quarter results. Coal comments from the chairman were very negative as follows:
1. "Even in the face of continued weakness in coal markets...."
2. Coal business was 9% lower than in the 3rd quarter last year.
3. Australian repeal of the carbon tax will put additional pressure on US coal.
You can read the full report by pulling up NSC
Dow down 100. ALL coal stocks except NRP are down significantly. Believe Caterpillar Chairman's comments have hurt coal stocks. NRP moved up to same level as yesterday ($20.49). Now dropping. Natural gas is up 3 cents.
NRP was at $20.49 when the distribution announcement came this morning. It then dropped to a breakeven
and finally closed up 9 cents, And ex date is just 7 trading days away. All other coal stocks that I follow were up 2 to 10 times a much as NRP (percentage) even though they pay little or no dividend.
The ex announcement is the second most important day of the quarter for NRP shareholders. THE MOST
IMPORTANT DAY IS THE DAY THAT EARNINGS WILL BE REPORTED. NRP will meet with revenue, income
and cash flow when 3rd quarter results are reported on November 5th. Guidance will not be good. Stock will fall below $15 this quarter.
Most coal stocks were up today (WLT was down). Natural gas took a hit. NRP was up. Will probably announce ex and payment dates for the distribution Wednesday before the market opens (10/23/2013)
Stock should trade up over the next few days. Eight trading days till ex.
Today CNBC carried a segment on oil and gas drilling. We apparently have enough oil and gas in the ground in the USA to last forever. Natural gas and oil prices dropped significantly. The drop might have been contributed to by the CNBC report.
I do read every word that you post. Believe you are a very knowledgeable investor. I follow OCIR very closely. Could you tell me exactly what a one point move in OCIR means to NRP? Believe thatithe ipo was 20 million shares that were sold for less than $20. As you can tell, finance is not one of my strengths. I follow closely about 35 stocks but NRP is my only energy related stock. Also only mlp. Am about 75% cash right now which
has been a mistake recently. I do research each stock that you mention.
Just a few weeks ago Barron's had a positive coal article. Motley Fools and Seeking Alpha contributors were forecasting turnaround dates for coal shares. They also picked coal companies that they were buying and or recommending. I don't see any of that anymore. Examples of coal related headlines this weekend:
1. "EPA rule devastates coal industry".
2. "The destruction of US coal industry".
Analysts are looking out to 2015 and beyond for recovery. Hard to say what will happen that far out.
Coal news continues to be very bad.
Someone dropped 40,000 shares right at the close and pushed NRP to close at the low of the day.
Only nine trading days till ex. Usually shares climb a couple of points going into ex date Hasn't
happened this time (yet). Also usually drops like a rock after ex. Will certainly do that this time.
Going below $15 after ex.