do not trust your charts so much
the fundamentals are too stretched
it is not webtech you know;
there is only so much injections you can sell
I made good $$$ :)))
Will short more and make more $$$
AMAG will take a big hit sometime in the future
But there is nothing wrong trading in and out while waiting
I had a short position at average $70 which I covered at an average of $66 last Monday. Thinking of shorting again.
yeah the article claimed that Makena had patent protection until 2023, a total lie
Makena does not have ANY patent protection
it is a simple generic injectable progesterone that has been marketed since 1956
it is only protected for one orphan indication, protection for preterm labor, until end of 2017
the orphan protection does not even prevent against generic entry for other indications
investopedia probably realized that the article was full of false claims and took it off air
1. Hydroxyprogesterone caproate (active drug in Makena) was approved for amenorrhea and abnormal uterine bleeding in 1956. It was sold by BMS under the brand name Delalutin until it was taken off the market in 1999.
In 2010 FDA announced:
"DELALUTIN (hydroxyprogesterone caproate) injection, 125 mg)/mL and 250 mg/mL, was not withdrawn from sale for reasons of safety or effectiveness. This determination will allow FDA to approve abbreviated new drug applications (ANDAs) for hydroxyprogesterone caproate injection, 125 mg/mL and 250 mg/mL, if all other legal and regulatory requirements are met."
So a generic Delalutin, which is the same drug as Makena, can be brought into the market any day for indications other than prevention of preterm labor. And once a generic version is available, doctors are free to prescribe the cheaper version off-label for prevention of preterm labor, and pharmacies are also allowed to fill Makena prescriptions with the generic version. Although in theory Makena has orphan act protection until 2018 for one indication, it is practically completely vulnerable to generic competition at any time. If a generics company announces that it is working on a generic Delalutin/Makena on Monday, imagine what will happen to AMAG's share price and "upward momentum". That is why I claim that a "generic announcement risk" is not built into the current share price of AMAG.
2. Any pharmacy with a compounding license can compound hydroxyprogesterone caproate; not just a few. That is why over 50% of the preterm labor market is held by the compounded form (Makena has only 25% market share).
Keep it coming, I am enjoying this....
I truly believe that Makena deal is a zero net present value deal for AMAG (esp. if you count the $200m milestone payments). So the share price should have stayed where it was before the deal. However momentum took it from $20 to $70, showing indeed how important momentum is for stocks. But no upward momentum goes forever. As value at risk grows higher, contrarians start having a closer look at the fundamentals. The music will stop at some point, as it always does.
ANDA review takes 36 months, so it is not a super fast process. McGuff can be a bit incompetent, or perhaps they are working on some GMP improvements.... That is not the point.... The point is anybody can bring a generic hydroxyprogestrerone caproate into the market at any time.... And Makena's success is going to make it faster, not the other way around....
it just gets to my nerves when billions are created out of thin air through financial engineering.... always ends bad though
run when insiders are cashing out
you are full of half truths
they are trying to get fda approve a preservative free version of makena
to match compounded hydroxyprogesterone produced by pharmacies in small batches
some doctors prefer the preservative free form
so it is not to have a distinct advantage over generics, but actually to catch-up with them
my advice is never make investment decisions with second hand accounting data
there was a piece on benzinga yesterday which put AMAG on top 5 most profitable nasdaq healthcare stocks
they used gross profit which really does not mean anything
AMAG made a gross profit of $69m in 1Q, but only a net income of $12m
net income of $12m/Q
only two more years of market exclusivity for lead product (with luck)
market cap of $2.1B
it is not a surprise that the insiders have been cashing out like no tomorrow
1Q earnings per share was $0.34. If we extrapolate that to a full year, current P/E stands at 50x. Now you are telling me that with sales growth, P/E will become 8x within a year. Dream on.
So far investing based on news articles seems to have benefited you. But do not think that will be the case going forward. You are sitting on a bomb.
I will write about the big risks in my next post.
You are reading press articles and posts regarding AMAG's profitability and P/E ratio.
They say AMAG is one of the most profitable and highest P/E ratio company among biotechs.
This is disinformation.
Acording to AMAG 2014 annual report, AMAG had earnings of $5 per share. However this earnings number is a non-cash earnings number. In fact AMAG made a cash loss of $10 million in 2014. They take into account a non-cash item, income tax benefit, which was $150 million. As a result AMAG looks as if they made $140 million of profits, In fact they did not make a single dollar of profit.
AMAG was a loss making company in 2014 . Neither profitable nor with a high P/E ratio.
because Makena is not Acthar...
superficially they may look alike...
both historic drugs repurposed for an orphan indication...
and skyrocketing price tag...
however Acthar is a biologic extract which is almost impossible to copy.
whereas Makena is a synthetic drug and even small pharmacies compound it in their labs...
and worse, the historic NDA for Makena (hydroxyprogesterone caproate) is still valid, which means that any generic company can start selling generic HC any time (after filing a generics license with the FDA)
long story short, AMAG will never be a Questcor; noone will acquire it...
I am a biotech expert. I only short companies pretending to be biotechs.
Can you please enlighten us re non-existing AMAG pipeline?
Last week 4 AMAG insiders sold major part of their stock holdings:
CEO William Heiden sold 11,378 shares on June 2nd and then sold another 66,875 shares on 5th
SVP Scott Holmes sold 22,516 shares on June 3rd
SVP Kenneth Wilson sold 5,388 shares on June 3rd
President and COO Frank Thomas sold 20,000 shares on June 4th