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Pengrowth Energy Corporation Message Board

aznblue099 15 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 22, 2014 1:31 AM Member since: Jun 12, 2005
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  • Santa rall is on.

  • Reply to

    Tommorow might be the reversal day

    by picker.bottom Dec 10, 2014 4:01 PM
    aznblue099 aznblue099 Dec 20, 2014 7:04 PM Flag

    Picker missed the bottom by only 3 trading sessions. You are really good on technical. Do you still see $9 as the 1st target?

  • Reply to


    by bluemuppet1970 Dec 13, 2014 2:26 AM
    aznblue099 aznblue099 Dec 13, 2014 10:10 AM Flag

    Brazil government is desperate to boost confidence. BG state" The low unit cost of the Santos Basin development is a result of the excellent reservoir characteristics, which deliver high margins and an economic break-even at less than $40/bbl."

    Don't be fooled by ANP,the government agency.

  • Reply to

    FXI will pay a dividend on Dec. 29th....

    by pierce_bollinger Dec 11, 2014 12:32 PM
    aznblue099 aznblue099 Dec 13, 2014 1:36 AM Flag

    FXI is so disappointing. Its price is lower than native value. MM manipulate too much.

  • aznblue099 by aznblue099 Dec 10, 2014 9:54 AM Flag

    There are a couple of legal cases against PBR. Can people join the cases if he has no loss but suffers less gain?

  • Reply to

    well i have to take beating tomorrow..

    by hsangha56 Nov 27, 2014 2:21 PM
    aznblue099 aznblue099 Nov 28, 2014 12:48 AM Flag

    PBR's immediate problem is that they have to borrow money to fund the development, which has been effectively cut off from international debt market due to scandal, unless they scandal issue can be resolved in a few months. They can not reduce investment in short term for its contractual obligations. They mentioned that they will borrow from ENDES, or something I don't quite understand. The second alternative is to issue more shares, which will dilute minority shareholders drastically. PBR management reiterated that they will not resort to share dilution, which has no credibility based on their track record.

    Moving to long term, the book value will be impaired by both scandal and low crude price. The domestic oil price can not stay above international benchmark for long term. With 190B debt and weak real, the interest payment on debt will eat most of earnings if not all.

  • Reply to

    Bleeding to death

    by michaelmcmx Nov 17, 2014 8:01 PM
    aznblue099 aznblue099 Nov 18, 2014 1:55 AM Flag

    It is very difficult to hold PBR nowadays. The company and government seem have no interest to defend the stock prices or company value. The oil is still buried off shore Brazil anyway. Even if PBR bankrupt, the government would never care.

    There are just too many negative news and changes. Oil WTI is ~$75/bbl. I guess PBR can realize crude price about $5 lower. The exchange rate is above 2.6 real/$. If I model, cost $50, 2.2M BB/day, 34% tax rate and $-5B loss on downstream refinery, and 6.7x of PE ratio. The stock price comes $7.5. This has not included the potential high debt cost, dividend payment, cost of new debt. PBR has ~130B debt. If interest rate goes above 6%, they would have to pay ~5B more interest.

  • The U.S. Department of Justice has opened an investigation into Brazilian energy company Petroleo Brasileiro, or Petrobras, the Financial Times reported Sunday, citing people familiar with the matter.
    According to the report, the Securities and Exchange Commission is also conducting a civil investigation of the company.
    The investigations involve possible violations of the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act, the report says.

  • Warren Buffet likes to use total stock market capitalization per GNP to judge stock market value. When the ratio is 80%, it is very good to buy, when it is close to 200% and you are buying the stock is like playing fire. Current US ratio stands at ~130%.

    As of Nov 3rd, Brazil stock market per gdp is 43%. Stock market per gnp is 33%. Historical low for gdp ratio was 1998 20%.

    Based on this yard stick, people should really swap US stock into Brazil stock.

  • aznblue099 aznblue099 Nov 3, 2014 11:19 AM Flag

    If you add $47B for share dilution, 4 year tax (2010-2014) ~ $26B, dividend a few $B dollars and the embezzled money (unknown), it is more than $100B in past 4 years, while PBR has added how much debt?

    To this sense, Jim Canoes is correct. PBR is more like a scheme, not a stock.

  • Reply to

    Dilma 51% Aecio 49%

    by seanintlmom Oct 26, 2014 6:01 PM
    aznblue099 aznblue099 Oct 26, 2014 6:26 PM Flag

    Well, voters selected the road of no pain in short term but great uncertainty in longer term. They will deserve what they will get. International investors will say good bye to Brazil investment. There is always better opportunity somewhere else for investors.

  • Reply to

    PBR is not affected as much by falling crude prices.

    by opusbc1 Oct 13, 2014 10:02 AM
    aznblue099 aznblue099 Oct 13, 2014 5:54 PM Flag

    This is half true. If crude further drops, it will hurt the upstream margin, it's international business, book value, and brazil government will not allow too much higher retail oil prices if Dilma wins, price likely follows international prices if Dilma lost. Neither cases will not make pbr immune from falling crude price.

  • Reply to

    53% counted

    by tsunamidec2004 Oct 5, 2014 5:45 PM
    aznblue099 aznblue099 Oct 5, 2014 6:24 PM Flag

    Now 78% counted, 90+m counted, 3.4m blanket, 5.5m invalid.

  • Reply to

    This is not normal

    by georgia_stock_investor Oct 4, 2014 5:19 PM
    aznblue099 aznblue099 Oct 5, 2014 4:17 PM Flag

    I have no position now and feel sorry for longs on this stock.

    I made some money on this stock long time ago. Did not expect that it can be this cheap. But given the strong dollar, lower oil price and internal mess, the stock price may not be too cheap. Yes ,the P/B is 0.46. But EV/B is close to 0.7. I bought other canroy stocks before. Some gave pretty nice gain. But put all of them in the long time span, the business model seems not a sustainable one. All companies have converted from canroy to company structure, but all have heavy debt load and fund flow in general have problems to support the development, so they keep on issuing more units or shares. With the shale gas and oil glutting the market, it is hard to see a real turn around in sight. For short term, the stock may bounce back. Holding long term for dividend seems not a successful approach.

  • Reply to

    DDDWMD and friends - all Brazilians

    by jillian.scott Oct 4, 2014 2:57 PM
    aznblue099 aznblue099 Oct 4, 2014 4:46 PM Flag

    Latest poll by Folha, Dilma 44%, Aetius 26%, Marina 24% in 1st round.

    Second round: 49%:39% Dilma:Marina, 48%:42% Dilma: Aetius.

    This poll is published about 2.5 hours ago.

3.23-0.04(-1.22%)Dec 26 4:03 PMEST

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