I agree with everything you say... I made my first serious gain with your JVA call a while back.. Ever since I follow your calls and read your topics.
And I do appreciate the fact that you are sharing your expertise with us here. I just developed my own ways of following you calls though, we have discussed this last year, what I found is you pick winners for sure, the only thing is you initiate a little bit too early, which is fine, cuz I've learnt to follow them and make my buyings few weeks after you initiate them...
You make the calls right but MMs do not make it easy for people like me to benefit from them so they bottom it most of the time to steal more shares for winner stocks prior a rally...
Experienced guys like you double down on those dips but most of the rookies like me just freak out and gave away their shares to MMs...
So it is all good, I've learnt a lot from you and from my own experiences over the past 2 years. And I do appreciate that...
Hopefully we will make a lot more money together going forward.
Looking back, shorting ARO before earnings evidently was the best thing anybody could have done. And as of tomorrow it'd also create a great buying opportunity.
I wish I had deep pockets like you here... You are absolutely right when you have the time, money and patience. This strategy works out.
- First of all I don't have the time I play mostly options, so there is an expiration date mostly 6 months that I need to care about.
- Secondly I don't have that kind of buying power, I can add on after each sell offs.
Some of the stocks we talk about it here are my biggest losses of all time,
- DRYS (shipper example)
I only made money on JCP from what we mentioned here because I bought it 3 months after your initial initiation. And it is also far from its 13-14/share levels of last fall.
So if I could effort to sit on a stock for a year and keep adding as it falls, you are 100% right. But unfortunately that strategy doesn't work out for me.
JCP beating earnings had also something to do with the stock was beaten down 20/sh to 5/sh where all the other apparel stores were soaring in 2013. So let's say it was either that or going bankrupt.
ANN is tomorrow before market I'll also have my eyes on it... I may play short on GES, NWY or PSUN earnings next week.
Always a pleasure reading your posts man,
After my EXPR experience the other day, I came to the realization that do NOT buy before earnings on any Apparel Store this quarter.
We had a brutal winter, people didn't go to malls, they shoveled snow instead. Especially teenager stores, they go to malls via bus etc, if their parents don't drop them. I don't think that was the case this winter.
I bet 8 out 10 earnings will miss big...
If you play only earnings I say go short... And after it creates a good buying opportunity...
I don't even turn heating on for a week here in New York metro area... I'd think I live in most densely populated region. So not sure about the storage numbers on Thursday... You could be right, but I already took my position in it. The volume left commodities, especially nat gas in my opinion and money is back into stocks. Any glimpse of bearish weather forecast, they will bring down UNG to 24 and as we know how fast it moves, I just don't want to miss it.
Year to date we have seen a big jump on pretty much in most commodities, especially in Natural Gas, Oil, Gold & Silver... As I don't believe in coincidences, the money pulled out from market during correction had to go somewhere...
In my opinion the biggest reason for this jump in those above mentioned commodities was this. If the correction is really over and market pointing towards to its new highs, we could see the same money being pulled out from commodities and put back into equities again. We have seen crazy swings in Natural Gas, that can not be just explained by arctic cold...
Of course I'm biased by holding UNG puts, but there could be a big drop in above mentioned commodities.
That's my justification of shorting Natural Gas other than Winter is almost coming to an end.
I read a comment about it couple weeks ago. The guy, I dunno how he predicted but, claimed no matter what the outcome is going to be with earnings they will bring it down to 9...
Having a position in it, didn't want to believe but also after speaking with Danny yesterday, decided to sell 1/3 of my holdings pre earnings...
I will see how it will play out, probably will put it back in it to reduce my avg. It would have been ok to just miss and go down, they beat earnings, beat revs went up 17% then found an excuse that the acquisitions and the marketing expenses weighs on the stock??!!
This is theft in my opinion
You were spot on with the miners and now gold and silver is following as you predicted. But in my opinion gold miners are already made their run and that was the sign of gold and silver rally since stocks always position themselves prior the commodity move.
Currently I don't see any gold miner that isn't already overbought... And I'm aware of the fact where these guys came down from over the years, but they won't go back to where they were few years ago, even if they go up in the long run, I see a pull back technically in the short term sometime soon.
On the other hand I don't think gold going back to 1900s again either... We are not in that recession era anymore and the interest rates will rise...
Unfortunately I don't have the means of making an entry and take the abuse for months and keep averaging down and make a killing on the rally eventually like big guys. So I'll pass on the miners at this point.
I have some Silver position may add on after this and have some SCO position as well, probably will close it and move it something with more potential after this talk :)
Always a pleasure,
Everything that you say makes perfect sense. In the meantime, where do u see the independent oil & gas companies, drilling and refining companies under the light of everything u said above. I hold few of them with good fundamentals, and so far they been beaten up lately already.
Please share your thoughts,