That Bake guy, if it was not that @#$@#% who clouded my judgement on Nat Gas, I'd probably be sitting on my UNG April calls which I dumped end of December, thinking I made a killing...
YTD I lost it all and some unfortunately...
Until the trend changes the trend is down for precious metals and miners... So we had a recent rally like in january since they were technically oversold. And became overbought at $9.30, it is not really a rocket science, CDE should and will pull back to down to $8/sh and probably even further down in the coming weeks.
Each new high is lower than the previous one and each low is lower than the previous one. This is a down trend to me.
I was long in may in bunch of silver and gold miners since I found them to be way oversold at the time. As far as CDE is concerned, we are talking about a 40% rally on the underlying stock in 4 weeks. And denied from its trend resistance line as expected.
In my opinion in the short term it has no place to go but south, when I said it will test $8/sh levels, to be honest I was being generous. Along with a 10 Year Treasury Rate possible increase we can observe $6s.
wow... YTD has been brutal for me, I've done my first trade with somewhat of a substantial gain, maybe got out too early but last time around, I regretted that I didn't sell it and it dropped on me big time... Still holding a chunk of TSL, hope one more rally so I can exit from that
Bought some SLV today, I see it as oversold and market is way up, mm s might use another russia excuse to drop it on us... who knows
No intention to short them... My SLV position is at %116 gain right now,
As it just crossed 200 day avg, with almost 80 RSI and 200 CCI my logic tells me it will hit against some resistance sometime very soon, in the meantime it can extend a little bit further for sure... But I think it is wise to consider taking some profits, that's all.
Last week I got out off FB and TSL... What a timing on TSL btw... This tariff thing killed it, if goes back to 10s, I probably would consider buying again... Currently I have C and JPM, JDSU, and I see what you are saying that is why other than a small position of EBAY, started to buy USLV, NUGT and a gold miner that I've picked GG
What're your thoughts on those?
I have UNG puts, but I'm short on Gold/Silver Miners for the short term... Currently I have short positions on CDE and EGO...
Like I said I don't play that far ahead, there will be tons of rallies and corrections from now till 2015/2016 in all sectors including market and miners and metals in my opinion. I play the current trend.
X is another opportunity that I see and bought some puts like I said...
my newest longs DNKN, EBAY, SFUN, CXDC
I'm short on SUNE as of yesterday
any thoughts on them?
it probably will but the question is when?
I play options, I've already had too many options expired worthless on laggards YTD... I'd wait and see a bounce and a confirmation on a trend change, before I get myself into. That's my 2 cents on it.
In 2014, I got killed till May, I am just glad to see things turning around.... My goal is to make as much as possible to get close to Jan 2014 level...
Anybody remembers these calls from last week?
DNKN got out with Sept 45 calls - cost 1.50 sold at 2.40
SFUN still holding Aug 8 calls - cost 1.50 current 2.75
EBAY still holding Oct 42.50 calls - cost 1.40 current 1.90
UNG still holding Oct 24 puts - cost 1.00 current 1.50
SUNE still holding Oct 22 puts - cost 2.33 current 2.30
I noticed in the recent history, any rally on gold & silver miners are the early signal for actual metals rally especially when they are oversold. Therefore I have positioned myself at GG and SLV. I've sold GG options with 187% gain, and it's continuing its movement up, maybe I sold early but, I've been burnt by not taking the profits especially YTD.
SLV has been very kind recenty, I'm well up on my position, I see it rallying up to 19.70 level, will consider start taking profits at some point.
After what happened today, I'm not sure if I did the right thing on getting out on my puts on both CDE and EGO, looks like I could have made good money on shorting them...
Great call! Like I said before, I played at the resistance level with minimum risk in my opinion. It blow off the resistance so I took the small loss and get out. I think it was worth a try, risk/reward ratio was to my favor and at the end I was wrong. It is not the first time I was wrong and wont be the last time.
I have EGO and AEM puts, I'll sell them when market opens.
Will look for other plays.
coal, steel and shippers, basically the laggards were the reason I lost tons YTD, I'd stay away, but your call.
right now my strategy is on laggards only short them when they are overbought. That's why I shorted X have bunch of puts.
hopefully I'll be right on that call
I think it is a little bit too early for major airlines, if you will go for one, I see JBLU is your best chance to short....
Solars are more likely to be on overbought category in my opinion, I did 2 rounds of TSL on the long side in may and june, they had a great run...