I'm beating myself up on closing my short positions on EGO and CDE... As expected hitting the resistance followed with GS downgrading the gold today...
I should have listened the technical signals along with my gut feelings but chickened out.
After what happened today, I'm not sure if I did the right thing on getting out on my puts on both CDE and EGO, looks like I could have made good money on shorting them...
I feel like we have had this in January... Earning season again and market is down 100 and next day 40+ then 100 down again... MMs gives you hope every other day to keep you in the market with small bounces instead of a complete sell off
In the meantime gold and silver rallies... Only difference on Nat Gas instead of rallying it is this time falling like a rock...
It looks like January all over again to me... You guys think we will see another 5% correction from this levels?
it probably will but the question is when?
I play options, I've already had too many options expired worthless on laggards YTD... I'd wait and see a bounce and a confirmation on a trend change, before I get myself into. That's my 2 cents on it.
if 200 day support breaks down, it is a falling rock... but I'm usually on the wrong side on these :)
coal, steel and shippers, basically the laggards were the reason I lost tons YTD, I'd stay away, but your call.
right now my strategy is on laggards only short them when they are overbought. That's why I shorted X have bunch of puts.
hopefully I'll be right on that call
Great call! Like I said before, I played at the resistance level with minimum risk in my opinion. It blow off the resistance so I took the small loss and get out. I think it was worth a try, risk/reward ratio was to my favor and at the end I was wrong. It is not the first time I was wrong and wont be the last time.
I have EGO and AEM puts, I'll sell them when market opens.
Will look for other plays.
I trade options Duy... It's quite possible and happens all the time,
it all depends on the expiration date and strike price...
I already sold CDE puts yesterday with 25% gain. I'd love to make mistakes like that everyday.
And I bought AEM puts today and still have EGO puts
Each new high is lower than the previous one and each low is lower than the previous one. This is a down trend to me.
I was long in may in bunch of silver and gold miners since I found them to be way oversold at the time. As far as CDE is concerned, we are talking about a 40% rally on the underlying stock in 4 weeks. And denied from its trend resistance line as expected.
In my opinion in the short term it has no place to go but south, when I said it will test $8/sh levels, to be honest I was being generous. Along with a 10 Year Treasury Rate possible increase we can observe $6s.
Until the trend changes the trend is down for precious metals and miners... So we had a recent rally like in january since they were technically oversold. And became overbought at $9.30, it is not really a rocket science, CDE should and will pull back to down to $8/sh and probably even further down in the coming weeks.
I have UNG puts, but I'm short on Gold/Silver Miners for the short term... Currently I have short positions on CDE and EGO...
Like I said I don't play that far ahead, there will be tons of rallies and corrections from now till 2015/2016 in all sectors including market and miners and metals in my opinion. I play the current trend.
X is another opportunity that I see and bought some puts like I said...
I know what happens but nobody knows when it happens.. I'm with you on that Duy, it will eventually reverse, to be on the long side though, I need to see higher lows and higher highs... I can't try to catch a falling knife with options.
Like I said, I am not buying underlying stocks and sit on them for 2 years. I buy options, so I gotta be on the right side...
So far metals and miners on downtrend because each high is lower than previous one and each low is lower than previous one, until it changes, this is a bear market for gold and silver...
Sometime in the future, it will change, like everything else, but until then I buy at support and sell at resistance till they break.
We have those numbers, from a conversation we had from the beginning of year. I don't think there is any need to take this personal.
I'm only talking technicals, based on facts and making no assumptions,
Fact # 1 Until the current trend changes the trend for gold and silver is downwards.
Fact # 2 Silver is overbought technically based on 80 Relative Strength Index
Fact # 3 Silver is overbought technically based on 190 Commodity Channel Index
Fact # 4 Silver is almost on its trend line resistance $20.50 /sh
So at this level it is wise to short it and wait in my opinion. And if breaks the resistance, I got not much to lose, I'd take the loss and get out.
But if it reverses, so I make money that is as simple is that.
Again like I said before I don't hold positions for 3 months, 6 months 1 year or 2 years.... I play the current trends... Most of my plays are for less than a month.
Hope we all make money.
Please don't get me wrong, but like you said I play much shorter terms and mostly with options. So mine is not like your investment approach. And I don't have fraction the experience and knowledge of what you have.
When I start a position, it should start going to my direction, and when it does 5-10% on the underlying stock, it is 50-100% on my option positions.
So what I'm trying to say is my trades 1 month trades at max, mostly a week or 2 so I need to see results within that time. I hope I was able to clear the air.