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First Niagara Financial Group Inc. Message Board

b_hesford2000 51 posts  |  Last Activity: Sep 8, 2014 10:44 PM Member since: Jan 3, 2008
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  • b_hesford2000 by b_hesford2000 Sep 8, 2014 10:44 PM Flag

    Well, looks like support has held up though some seriously interesting news. The next week will be telling.

  • b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Sep 3, 2014 10:09 PM Flag

    Oh, I hear you. I'm not to concerned about JANA and their stake which wasn't even close to a whole percent...but....they sold none the less. The price has held stronger than I would have thought....but again, JANA's stake wasn't the whale I was thinking of when I first brought the comment to the board. Great input, thank you Keebon. B

  • Reply to

    One more nail in the coffin!

    by ayscuew Aug 28, 2014 5:48 PM
    b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Aug 28, 2014 11:24 PM Flag

    I agree...steel won't be a part of the world in the next century. ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR MIND??? It is a temporary low...only to see a rebound be followed by another's love when its hate and sell the love.

  • However, JANA isn't exactly all that big a holder in the grander picture. They sold there position off though so I am paying attention b/c nobody sells anything unless they think it is topped out. So, at 67/sh I thought it was rich, only b/c it went so quick but I am sort of happy b/c I am hoping to see if the support holds and where it holds at.....if it doesn't hold....I'm gonna be gone too. Will I have lost on 10/sh, yes, but if it holds....those who sold will be supporting the ride back to 67 (no harm no foul). I do think GLNG sees 70 sooner than 56...but I've said things like that before. lol. GL all, B

  • Reply to

    Amaing Stock

    by racehorse9 Aug 26, 2014 9:52 AM
    b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Aug 26, 2014 9:08 PM Flag

    With respect, if you don't understand how their plan differs from those of DRYS or DSX than you don't belong investing in equities. While I understand that the price action has been quick, more so than I ever thought, it is justified based on the World shift to NG and the need of it from the West. GLNG has a realitively unique strategy that is backed by BIG MONEY CLEARLY!!! The question I have is, "Why can't you see that?" The market cap isn't all that stretched that this point....the market has already made up its mind that it likes the company's plan, its management, and the likelihood of success. If you are still doubting but want in I would personally say not to buy here, hope for a pullback to the upper-50s (which will likely occur at some point), if it holds support it up. Or you do what I did with X.....don't buy and just watch it continue to go up and up and up and up and up and get what I mean. But for the love, if you missed it....let it go! Go to X board, you won't see me crying over missed opportunity. Go find the next one and be patient in doing so. Best of luck, B

  • Reply to

    Is it crazy to say this is at least a

    by nyfakf Aug 25, 2014 2:03 PM
    b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Aug 25, 2014 8:47 PM Flag

    Hopefully they do an offering the day after the 23% Short Float is done getting squeezed out....the dilution will be muted at that point I would think. GL, B

  • Reply to

    I bought WLT today @5.96

    by tech8767 Aug 20, 2014 7:02 PM
    b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Aug 22, 2014 11:03 AM Flag

    Yet you supply news that the prices are expected to go up? Even the news that you searched for shows Met Coal recovering. The Moody's report calls the current situation in pricing "unsustainable" as in... Price for coal is going up, not down. I still haven't seen any outlet that is actually neutral project prices getting softer. Obviously, if India is in the market to buy and stockpile they are going to try and negotiate contracts that allow them to buy at low prices over time. They did it with Potash...they are smart, they buy low and try to get contracts at that price so that they can continue to get it as prices recover. This is the same script as what they did about a year or so ago with Potash. This statement by the Indians actually may be the 'bottom' in coal prices.

  • Reply to

    I bought WLT today @5.96

    by tech8767 Aug 20, 2014 7:02 PM
    b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Aug 21, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    Where are you getting your news? I would like to read it as well. I haven't seen much of anything current that projects Met Coal going downward in 2015. Actually, Cramer is the only one who I've heard (on CNBC Tuesday morning) who is expecting coal to continue to spiral as a result of cheap NG prices. Well, thanks in advance, B

  • Reply to

    This is what is really bothering me...

    by b_hesford2000 Aug 18, 2014 10:26 PM
    b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Aug 20, 2014 12:42 PM Flag

    Ditto....I need to start doing my DD on this company. I got long after buying for a trade (a big no-no according to the talking heads). I did so b/c the company is so darn cheap and my children like the products and I think they are appropriate for them in that they are the perfect balance of fun and educational. But the truth be told, I am breaking many of my own rules with this position, 1st being that I didn't listen to the call but rather just read all the analysis reports 2nd hand. Well, the price action seems good, perhaps another repeat of a quarter ago. Thanks again Warren, B

  • Reply to

    I don't get it -

    by rogers2308 Jul 31, 2014 7:53 PM
    b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Aug 19, 2014 5:34 PM Flag

    You have to remember that the downside risk is going to be 'footed' in the mid-50s....I would even say the upper 50s because that is where the stock opened trading the day after the issuance. I'm not sure what you are considering 'huge' but I think you are saying back to the 40s....not likely to happen. I wouldn't say not gonna happen because anything can happen BUT....extremely unlikely unless a major backer steps out of their position and since this is a future growth story, why would that happen?

  • Reply to

    This is what is really bothering me...

    by b_hesford2000 Aug 18, 2014 10:26 PM
    b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Aug 19, 2014 4:56 PM Flag

    I'm gonna have to do some digging...this is from the annual report so the next question that begs answering is how much buying they've done, what is the average cost per share, and do they plan to increase the buyback b/c I'd be willing to wager that if they still had the capability to buy up 7% of the float the pps wouldn't be stuck in the low 6s. There is something wrong with this picture....Well, Warren, thank you for your post, B

  • I'm long the stock for now but I've only owned it for 4 months or so. I'm in the red at 7/sh and it was a stake bought with the intention of adding to it b/c my children like their products and to be honest, they are products that I don't mind them playing with. That said, I want to buy more at the current level. I think the EV is more than 230M. Notice that I didn't say 'should be', I said the Enterprise Value is more than 230M!!!! There's no doubt about it. So with all this said, people may think that I am taking out personal loans to buy long....but I'm not even buying with the cash that I have....and why??? Well, I keep coming back to this....if they aren't buying their own stock, why should I add any? Can anyone here tell me if I'm wrong about this? Is there a buyback and I missed reading about it? If anyone can give me some clarity, I would greatly appreciate it. Thanks, B

  • Reply to


    by tivoaddict Aug 14, 2014 11:55 AM
    b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Aug 16, 2014 10:48 AM Flag

    If you are basing current the current situation regarding the change in strategy to growth with 2007 then your comps are going to always be skewed. That's like saying that they are the same company when in fact the company has changed dramatically over the last 2 years. Also, if you have been holding all that time, I hope that you were in a DRIP program because you have gotten your initial investment back....esp. if it's been since the early 2000s as you imply. Either way, the stock has been down and digesting 75% move over the last year and change...I can handle it....also, thanks for the divy ERF. I personally like this conversation because it means people think it's cheap...and it's in the 20s, nice!

  • Reply to

    Why? Why? Why.........?

    by leougene72895 Aug 14, 2014 7:14 AM
    b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Aug 14, 2014 10:31 AM Flag

    It's actually all 1 article with 9 parts....but I hear you, why post 1 part per day???

  • Reply to

    PPS Question.....

    by b_hesford2000 Aug 13, 2014 9:24 AM
    b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Aug 13, 2014 1:17 PM Flag

    Well, obviously it sounds good but who's to say that the demand for Met Coal increases to the point where the PPT goes any higher than $140-150? That is the thing that is irking me at the moment. Thankfully, the Australian production has been dropped which will help those producers on NA but there has been millions of tons bought at these cheap prices which makes me think demand could be a long time coming. I've gotta believe that those buying the Met Coal behave somewhat similarly to me when I go shopping at the market....I see a really good bargain on say oatmeal which sometimes costs twice as much and I buy enough to not need any for a good long while, say till the next time it goes on sale. I get that it isn't quite that simple but wouldn't you agree that the problem isn't quite as beguine as your post makes it seem. But then again, I did preface the question with the conclusion that the company is not going to go BK. Well, thank you all for your input and keep it coming. GL, B

  • b_hesford2000 by b_hesford2000 Aug 13, 2014 9:24 AM Flag

    So I have read many articles on WLT and the state of Met Coal on the global level. I feeling is that demand will come back and that the best time to buy is when there is "blood on the sidewalk" (please excuse the tired saying). That said, I started buying WAY to soon. Fortunately, I have got my average down to levels that aren't 'year ruining'. But what I am wondering is with all the dilution that has just taken place, is it possible in 'you all's' opinion that WLT makes a run at the 200-Day MA based purely on technicals, or is there a fundamental story here also? it capped out now??? Does this dilution make a run to 9-10/sh just to difficult based on the supply? I can't think of a time that I have every been so unsure but that also makes me think that I should probably sit tight based on how cheap the stock is 'minus debt'. I say 'minus debt' b/c I am long based on the belief that in the market for Met Coal firms up and they will be able to make appropriate payments on LT debt now and more easily in the future. Thoughts?

  • Reply to

    WLT converted debt

    by javierbenedi Aug 12, 2014 6:25 AM
    b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Aug 13, 2014 9:13 AM Flag

    Well said.....

  • Reply to

    6.50 close today

    by poundsb27 Aug 8, 2014 11:35 AM
    b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Aug 9, 2014 9:37 PM Flag

    I personally would like a close above 7, or even 10 for that matter. Looks like the curve on the 50 day is moving up for another test of the 200day which is still around $10. The longer it takes for the test the lower the test level.....which could be argued from either view point (bullish or bearish) quite well. Time will tell.

  • Reply to

    Who would buy AKAM above $60?

    by stockwatcher4u13 Aug 1, 2014 2:13 PM
    b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Aug 9, 2014 12:22 AM Flag

    Well, I've read all the posts here and while I have been very fortunate with my timing in this name, I have shed half my position...first at 48 and then at 62. If I write the sales off as even money, my buy price stands at 12/sh. The reason why I mention all that is that I feel compelled to hold for a few different reasons but would not buy b/c I see opportunity elsewhere as well. The long facts are that AKAM is a name I want to own b/c of their internet security arm which will become more and more the focus in the future, also, looking at long term charts...some would say that AKAM is scary close to going over 100/sh....on the flip side....stockwatcher, you said it's tough buying a stock that is at multi-year highs, especially one that you may not understand all that much. People had no problem buying AAPL for years at multi-year highs and people are pumping it know as it is back at those highs...why, b/c they can look around their room and see AAPL everywhere. People don't see AKAM...even though we understand that they DO SEE AKAM, they don't!!! Not like
    AAPL. In the end, it sounds like we all have done well with the company and should be grateful, I know I am. This stock has erased quite a few other stupid choices. GL, B

  • Reply to


    by ak762x Aug 8, 2014 11:01 AM
    b_hesford2000 b_hesford2000 Aug 8, 2014 11:20 AM Flag

    Good question. They bought a bunch in the teens...perhaps they too are sitting tight to see how the markets respond to the cuts and the upcoming election cycle. Who knows? But a good question non-the-less.

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