It ain't a "drug'" It's an exact copy of the most potent growth hormone in the human body. Who do you think you're fooling? Who do you work for so diligently? You are failing in your mission because you are an idiot. Moron is a compliment for you.
IMO, rights for ROP were "gifted" to Shire for a mere $11M because now Shire will bear the cost of manufacturing and bringing a new supply of iPlex/Premiplex to market.
Talking up iPlex is like shoving a crucifix in a vampire's face, terry's face. It makes his blood boil. iPlex works for short stature and ROP and its associated complications and the vampire knows it is at the heart of regulation of cell division and growth. Why else would their be such a clamor for its ownership and control?
So right, blue. The strategic review (remember that?) produced a reverse merger with Transave and a shot at nearer term revenue with Arikayce. I hardly think that the brain trust behind Transave was merely interested in Insmed's $130M dollars at the time of te merger. They saw the possibilities of iPlex farther down the road when the settlement agreement expired.
They treat CF, INSM treats Pseudomonas infections. You think there will be no more Pseudomonas infections?
Well, the point I was trying to make was that new cases alone could support a $30 handle on a sustained basis. Obviously, a greater number of legacy cases will be treated during the first few years the drug is on the market. That was the first part of my post. $2.47 billion revenue for legacy cases might be spread over those first few years.
Here's a very conservative estimate based on published figures: 110,000 cases of NTM worldwide. In the US, 45% of cases were treated with drugs so you can assume that that percentage is seeking treatment and has access to insurance. So assume 49,500 worldwide would be treated. Use Lewis' most conservative treatment cost ($50,000) and you get $2.47 billion revenue. If you google "NTM cost of treatment" you will find several studies that show mean cost with existing drugs is around $5k ranging up to $36k. An approved, effective treatment should be able fetch a premium.
If the number of cases is growing at 10%, then that' s 11k /year. If 45% of those are treated, that's 4,950 new patients/yr x $50k = $247.5 million. Put a 6x multiplier on revenue and assume dilution of another 10M shares, then you get a share price of around $30, just from new cases. That's pretty darn close to the average analyst target price.
You never know what tidbits he may unleash in the presentation or in Q & A, sort of like the off-hand disclosure that several entities have made overtures to the company. Those tidbits are not in the official "Investor Presentation" but they are out there as public pronouncements. We shall see.
Au contraire. We are witnessing a pennant. Converging trendlines during a consolidation period following a huge breakout with diminishing volume. Look for a breakout above the descending top line of the pennant. Especially apparent on a 2 hr chart.
My bet is there's a second punch coming (news of deals) that will send the shorts reeling like Sonny Liston when he was KO'd by Cassius Clay 50 years ago.
We traded over $22 earlier this year just on anticipation of what was just announced.
Every requirement of Breakthrough Therapy Designation has been achieved and with a drug that acts more quickly and has fewer side effects than existing treatments, and is simpler to administer requiring no hospitalization. SELL!!!!!!
A different way of viewing the results in the Arikayce arm alone is:
25% conversion after 84 days
36.4% conversion after 168 days