slow distro growth, plus 2 to 3 drop downs requiring 2nds...this isn't going anywhere for a while. However, by the end of 2014 it might start showing some growth. JMHO
From Merrill Lynch
"A full quarter of results from the acquired assets should help DCF coverage to recover to ~1.36x in 4Q13 and set MEMP up for a strong F2014. Management reiterated its 2014 guidance of $298-306mm adjusted EBITDA and 1.15x-1.25x DCF coverage. We model no distribution growth through 2Q14 and expect distributions per unit to increase ~5% in 2014 (YoY), even taking into account IDRs."
Merrill believes EROC won't cut distro...2H13 resolves many of 1H issues, and expects 2014 and 2015 to support 1.0 coverage and modest distro growth. Take it with as many grains of salt as you wish.
Fear. You know they want/need to get their credit metrics in line, but people are afraid to invest and get slammed with a 2nd...me included. With a 2nd out of the way, I think this could fly...I'd be back in for a couple thousand shares. The only other option is to hold on until the next earning cycle and hope for really strong cash flow coverage to drive the price up. But, until the 2nd hits there's a cap on the price people are willing to pay. JMHO
No cash and limited available borrowing. CS hurt them with the downgrade...maybe they won't be an underwriter. However, at the right price I'm a buyer...although the .95x coverage is an issue.
At 18.74, I.'m think of jumping back in before the EX-D. My reason is that with the shares at $18 tomorrow, they won't do a 2nd below $18 with the discount...so the shares will need to run up. It might be worth another 4-5% on the price. I realize you Have to be watchful, but the risk reward seems fair. Any thoughts on the logic / illogic of this?
MMLP. Recent acquisition should boast dcf coverage to 1.44 from 1.06. Could add $2 to current $22 price target. current Yld 10.35% on $2.05 distro. And thank you GS for the LINE upgrade!
Why has Line turned up and VNR still down. Cooperman going after the shorts? Regardless. bought Line at $22.12 today...and added 500 more shares of VNR at $24.80. I guess we'll see who's right here. GLTA.
$.80...they need to get ahead of the 2nd guessing every quarter. Pay a special out at YE with any extra. MITT pays $3.20...just declared for this quarter...and it trades at $22.75. Hate it or not, that's my guess.