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NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Message Board

bacio95 34 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 22, 2016 3:29 PM Member since: Aug 4, 2005
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  • Reply to

    Yield Plunges To 25%

    by mattmateuchi Jan 22, 2016 3:00 PM
    bacio95 bacio95 Jan 22, 2016 3:29 PM Flag

    Yes, astonishing. I had to clean my glasses to make sure I wasn't seeing things! Now, the big question, have we seen the bottom??? Anxious to add to a position that is DEEPLY under water but hesitant in front of earnings in a few weeks.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Interesting divergence today

    by bioimmunomabman Jan 20, 2016 11:50 AM
    bacio95 bacio95 Jan 22, 2016 2:00 AM Flag

    Hey, Rivvir - This India fund you reference, this is the India ETF? If so, what is the symbol? Thanks! BTW, what's your prognosis with MEMP? If, and that's a major if, oil stabilizes, you think Memp can hang on and make a go of it? Like you I believe, I've lost about 80% in this stock, sadly, in my retirement account. Obviously, not worth selling at this point. Thanks, again, for all your intelligent commentary!!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bacio95 bacio95 Jan 21, 2016 6:44 PM Flag

    Ok, Octo-Man, you have any brilliant ideas of some other reits that have investor-friendly managements? I've noticed, much to my chagrin, that Realty Income (O) is sitting practically at a new high!

  • Really pretty incredible. I think over the thirty plus years of investing I've never seen a stock drop so steadily day after day for over six months now. Make a man take up the bottle.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bacio95 bacio95 Jan 15, 2016 8:23 PM Flag

    Already own NSAM, so no need to double my pain. A good alternative is Hercules Technology Growth Capital, a BDC based here in Silicone Valley. Doing very well & pays over 11% distribution. Digital Realty Trust (DLR) is a technology Reit based in SF and doing well. In this Reit carnage we've experienced this company is just a few points off their high which is pretty remarkable.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    24% Yield!

    by mattmateuchi Jan 14, 2016 2:34 PM
    bacio95 bacio95 Jan 14, 2016 6:15 PM Flag

    Hey, Octo, I, too, enjoy your posts and intelligent insights, however, have a question for you. Why do you not capitalize the first letter of a new sentence? Just curious, kinda hard to read sometimes, Again, many thanks for your observations. I must say, unlike the vast majority of message boards, we actually have some pretty intelligent people posting. Now for your next trick, get the damn price up (lol).

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    We Hit Bottom Today!!

    by parsonsrod Jan 14, 2016 3:27 PM
    bacio95 bacio95 Jan 14, 2016 3:41 PM Flag

    Let's see if today's low of $12.69 holds. Wouldn't touch it until we actually have a higher low.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Yield now 23%

    by mattmateuchi Jan 13, 2016 3:19 PM
    bacio95 bacio95 Jan 13, 2016 9:06 PM Flag

    Not really, certainly not like NRF. Give me a list of mReits that are down 23% YEAR TO DATE, like NRF.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Yield now 23%

    by mattmateuchi Jan 13, 2016 3:19 PM
    bacio95 bacio95 Jan 13, 2016 5:18 PM Flag

    I'm not so sure your premise is correct. By broad market I would assume you're referring to the S&P (SPX). That is down 11% since June. As for similar 'risk' assets I also question what examples you're citing? I own several Reits, none of which is down anything comparable to NRF. As for analysts defending this stock, which names?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    Yield now 23%

    by mattmateuchi Jan 13, 2016 3:19 PM
    bacio95 bacio95 Jan 13, 2016 4:44 PM Flag

    Contrast NRF management with ABBV whose management just came out & defended the stock & their earnings going forward. Result, a 5% move up, at least for the moment.

  • Reply to

    Yield now 23%

    by mattmateuchi Jan 13, 2016 3:19 PM
    bacio95 bacio95 Jan 13, 2016 4:17 PM Flag

    Somehow your reasoning, correct as it may be, is not all that reassuring, To me a 56% drop since June signals something more sinister. Usually in this case either management or some analyst will come out and defend the stock. A declaration that the distribution will remain the same would go a long way in stabilizing the price, as voiced by Dar as well. In the meantime, as this macro environment persists, I just don't see what's going to propel this thing higher outside of something dramatic. Adding to positions has proven to a losing proposition. See if todays' low of $12.91 can hold tomorrow.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • bacio95 bacio95 Jan 12, 2016 7:13 PM Flag

    "NRF is selling off on par with its risk asset peers." Really, 'on par' with them? So you're saying similar mReits are off over 60% in the past 6 months? Not a facetious question, just asking.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    How low can it go?

    by krunktech Jan 12, 2016 12:52 PM
    bacio95 bacio95 Jan 12, 2016 2:31 PM Flag

    I think that's just where it's headed. $10, next level. Obviously a cut in the distribution is in the cards at this point, otherwise, what else would account for this utter annihilation. I wouldn't touch it here!

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    New low for NRF

    by mattmateuchi Jan 7, 2016 4:11 PM
    bacio95 bacio95 Jan 8, 2016 4:55 PM Flag

    Got it, however, due to the cavernous disparity in price between the NAV & suggested underlying asset value would you not grant me the very possibility that the underlying asset value is somehow faulty?Otherwise, how do you account for the glaring difference in the two? Lastly, if you believe all this, are you buying more at this price at the stock continues to crumble?

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    New low for NRF

    by mattmateuchi Jan 7, 2016 4:11 PM
    bacio95 bacio95 Jan 8, 2016 3:37 PM Flag

    That's exactly my point. This guy has such unflagging confidence that this stock is on it's way back to managements $29 price target. Nothing that has happened over the past year gives me any confidence that this is in the cards. I just don't blindly accept any pronouncements, especially from this team in power.

  • Reply to

    New low for NRF

    by mattmateuchi Jan 7, 2016 4:11 PM
    bacio95 bacio95 Jan 8, 2016 2:24 PM Flag

    I must say I admire your unshakable faith in this company, not sure it's totally justifiable. I understand that markets are not always rational but I can't stop thinking that there's more to this story than simply a mispricing of an asset. Fortunately I'm not used to experiencing 50% drops in stocks I own. You obviously have more experience in that arena. In any case, I appreciate your intelligent discourse and, hopefully, you'll be proven correct in time.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    New low for NRF

    by mattmateuchi Jan 7, 2016 4:11 PM
    bacio95 bacio95 Jan 8, 2016 1:48 PM Flag

    So, I guess I'm simply not justified in your words in "freaking out" because the stock has tumbled by 50%+ over the past year and continues to hit new lows. You continue to cite this great presentation and take it for gospel. If that is indeed the case then explain to me the dismal price action. And, using your logic since you so believe wholeheartedly in their target you should then be buying here hand over fist.

  • Reply to

    New low for NRF

    by mattmateuchi Jan 7, 2016 4:11 PM
    bacio95 bacio95 Jan 8, 2016 1:08 PM Flag

    All the more reason for them to explain in detail what has transpired since they last issued this target price and why the extreme disconnect. The fact that the stock would have to essentially double in order to meet this arbitrary figure demands, in my mind, an explanation to stockholders as to what the heck is happening. I don't think that's unreasonable and, frankly, would go a long way in appeasing concerned stockholders. I know you think that's unnecessary, I don't.

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    New low for NRF

    by mattmateuchi Jan 7, 2016 4:11 PM
    bacio95 bacio95 Jan 8, 2016 12:01 PM Flag

    You call a 50%+ haircut "a dip"? All I'm asking, since theoretically we are OWNERS of this company, is for them to be more transparent and, like many other companies I've invested in for over thirty years, occasionally submit some supporting evidence when their stock craters, or, in this case, reinforce the idea of their $29 target price which, in retrospect, seems utterly ridiculous

    Sentiment: Hold

  • Reply to

    New low for NRF

    by mattmateuchi Jan 7, 2016 4:11 PM
    bacio95 bacio95 Jan 7, 2016 9:02 PM Flag

    Wow, you have such faith that to me is totally unjustified! You think management really cares about us, especially given their track record over the past year? That seemingly great distribution of 19% is not only a flagrant red flag but unsustainable. And, by the way, the stock has already cratered to the tune of over 50% in one year. What makes you think it can't drop another 50%?? Your investment is based on hope and hope is NEVER a good strategy.

NRF
9.58+1.01(+11.79%)Feb 10 4:02 PMEST