Yesterday is a textbook demonstration of why playing with weekly calls is risky. The big boys can manipulate the price any way they want. Weekly calls are the options equivalent of reverse leveraged ETF's - a surefire way to lose money fast.
From a longer term standpoint, things look perfect. Double bottom, golden cross, consolidation and then breakout.
In the big 10% runup, RSI has now gotten too high and the Bollinger bands have widened. Would be nice to see RSI around 40 and Bollinger bands narrow before another breakout.
The fundamentals all support the technicals. Huge iPad Air Black Friday, Japan is now iPhone country, customers moving from Samsung to iPhone 5C (the moat around the high end of the market), iRadio taking customers from Pandora, Kinect and Topsy brilliant purchases with iTV in mind. ven the Mac is predicted to do well as it is the most sought after PC on the market.
People forget that the CM deal is still not official and we won't see the effects into 2014. Expect EPS guidance for Q2 (spring) to be outstanding relative to lower YoY comps and effect of buybacks.
AAPL has all the potential to head for $1000 or higher by the end of 2014. The technicals and fundamentals augur a bright future for those patient enough to buy shares instead of weekly calls.
MM's, hedge funds, and even Icahn are going to attack AAPL relentlessly today in a bid to load up at the cheapest price possible. They did in the spring as the stock double bottomed; they did it in September when the 5S was released. They'll do their best to shake out the call buyers and weak hands so they can load up. AAPL is on its way to $1000 for those patient enough and willing to sit back and collect a 2% dividend while AAPL makes them rich.
AAPL has just had a monster Thanksgiving weekend. It's dominated the smartphone market in Japan. It's taking customers away from Samsung. It's purchased Kinect and Topsy, signalling it's move into both the TV arena and mobile advertising. It's just launched iRadio, another revenue driver which is taking customers from Pandora. It's buying back it's own shares at an incredible rate. It's yielding 2% for a dividend (better than most banks). It has a new year with new products on the way that will further cement its status as THE industry leader. Technically, it has doubled bottomed, passed the golden cross, and consolidated before moving higher - textbook pattern for a stock heading higher.
This isn't about CM at all. The CM news when it comes out will be icing on the cake.
That's right. AAPL is going to have blow out earnings for the December quarter without the CM deal. That only means another blowout Q1 as lower YoY comps set in. Combined with the iWatch large screen iPhone, not to mention progress on the iTV and growth in iRadio, you'd be a fool to short this stock. By the way, did I mention the continued buyback that is lowering the share count as I type this? Or the steady dividend AAPL generates?
The question isn't "Why are AAPL shares up?", but rather "How did they ever get so low in the first place?"
Are you okay? I mean that. Are you psychologically well? Because it seems hard to believe that you have been here for hours and hours trying to talk this stock down a few bucks. All for what? It's a $550 stock and it's barely moving a percent either way. There is nothing to get excited about. Relax.
Agreed. The blowout performance this weekend was an unexpected bonus. Combined with CM deal, AAPL should be over $600 in short order. Based on its 14% expected growth rate (not far off GOOG's 16%) and its extreme undervaluation combined with continued buybacks, there is no reason in the world AAPL shouldn't get to $1000 in the next year or so.
Thinking we might pop 25-40 points on CM news on December 18th. Any other guesses?
Curious to see how AAPL moves after that.
I use it practically every day. I live in South Korea and can't get Pandora for some reason. Not that I'd want or need Pandora. iTunes is perfect. Easy to use and attractive interface. Complete selection of music. Limited advertisements (compared to Pandora). Acess to the iTunes store and easy purchases (should you be so inclined).
If you own AAPL stock, you should make every effort to use iTunes regularly. Every time an ad comes up, it adds to AAPL's bottom line.
Strictly TA response...
From a relative strength standpoint, we'll probably skate along the top end (80's) for a bit and land somewhere around $610-$620. It will probably retrace and bounce around $600 as the RSI comes down and the Bollinger Bands tighten up again. This period of consolidation will probably carry us into earnings. There wil probably be an MM induced selloff (they love to play games) going into earnings. AAPL will blow the roof off the the numbers and then it will sail to $700 in short order. After that, easy YoY comparisons and (hopefully) stronger evidence of a large screen iPhone6 and an iWatch will lead up to $1000. Any progress on iTV will be gravy.
AAPL is extremely undervalued at this price. To be in line with the market, it should be at $700/share as I type this.
Late 2014 or early 2015. Buybacks will have lowered the share count and EPS will benefit. When the large screen iPhone 6 and the iWatch come out. There will also be serious progress on the TV. The market has already recognized AAPL's moves into the TV arena when it purchased Kinect a few days ago. An AAPL TV will do things no TV before it has ever done and will warrant the premium buyers pay for it.
Shorts are basing their entire thesis on the iPhone, assuming AAPL has no other more products to create or markets to tap into. This is a big mistake. SA had an article today by this tool Michael Blair arguing just that point. These are the same clowns that were shorting AAPL in the iPod days saying AAPL had no more products in the pipeline. They don't realize Steve Jobs was so smart he left behind innovation for a generation.
TC may be goofy at times but he was right in what he said last year. Don't bet against AAPL.
...is the pathetic fool that listened to creepskinner/skippy/frankcapra and sold his shares at $400. Got to feel bad for anyone that would let themselves get shaken out of the bying opportunity of a lifetime by Internet trolls posting out of their momma's basement.
I completely understand why that person would jump. Oh, well! Hope the water is nice and the fall a pleasant.
Those handjobs better come with a fingerprint ID and Retina display.
Watch and Learn (how to take it up the keester to pay off margin calls).
Um... yeah... that's great....
So what exactly do you do in your mom's basement when she brings strange men over? I imagine you turn up the music real loud so you don't have to hear her as she does whatever it takes to keep a roof over your head.
An?re you taking it up the financial tooker yet agan?
We all respected you more when you posted under the sheepskinner handle and admitted to having a photoshopped pic of Tim Cook wearing nothing but speedos hanging on the wall. LOL.
Good crunching of the numbers. I was doing a lot of rounding to get the point across. Gad to see someone here took it a step further. While I do agree on your points, I see that 10% of the customers being high end and willing to pay up for the 5S. Not saying 4S won't be sold, but the gold 5S with fingerprint is very tempting to the Chinese. Beyond that, we still haven't calculated the ugly stepchild in the room - the 5C. if AAPL cuts the price just a bit, then the 5C could become the belle of the ball.
Overall, it will be a slow and steady climb to $1000 in the next couple of years. I'll keep playing that iTunes Radio to help add to the bottom line.
Fair enough. AAPL may not sell as many phones without a subsidy.
But even if no agreement is reached, the very presence of 4G (not old 2G unlocked) iPhones (5S and 5C) being advertised in the stores will be good for at least 50 million iPhones sold in the next two years (out of a market of 700 million). At about $250 margin per phone that's about $12.5 billion over the next two years. That's 6 billion each year, or about 15% EPS share growth when the buybacks fully take effect.
All of this is without an agreement. With an agreement the numbers would be much better.
Hate to break it to you, but there is a portion of the Chinese market that is wealthy, and that market is clamoring for iPhones. That is why, agreement or no agreement, being available on the CM network is a win for AAPL.
What the hell are you talking about? Points 1,2, and 3 above are facts. They naturally lead to point four.
There is no need to reach a deal on subsidies for AAPL. If one is needed, then it has already been reached. Again, it would make no sense for CM to give AAPL a carrier license, put up banners at its stores, and start displaying AAPL products on its website if it isn't going to carry them.
What part of common sense are you allergic to?