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CHINACAST EDUCATION Message Board

baked421 5 posts  |  Last Activity: May 7, 2016 4:38 PM Member since: Aug 18, 2003
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  • Reply to

    CLF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

    by baked421 May 7, 2016 12:37 PM
    baked421 baked421 May 7, 2016 4:38 PM Flag

    These answers actually scare me. Has anyone actually spent 5 minutes to go through the earnings release? WS values companies based on sustainable operating earnings and cash flow. 1 time gains don't enter into the equation. I was wondering if any long-term shareholders had a sense of operating EPS at $80 or $100 IO.

  • Has anyone done a sensitivity analysis for CLF at iron ore at $80 or $100? JPM has CLF posting $1.22 EPS at $63.74/mt. Wondering if anyone has run the #'s for higher IO prices? TIA

    "Cliffs Natural Resources’ EPS and FCF improve dramatically at spot iron ore prices. While our iron ore team has not changed their iron ore price forecast of $40/mt for 2016 and $42/mt for 2017, the spot price of $63.74/mt is 59% above our 2016 forecast. At the current spot price, Cliffs Natural Resources’ 2016E and 2017E EPS would increase to $0.84 and $1.22 from ($0.99) and ($0.59), respectively."

  • Reply to

    THIS IS HOW SHARES WILL BE TENDERED

    by baked421 Mar 28, 2016 9:43 AM
    baked421 baked421 Mar 28, 2016 10:17 AM Flag

    I'd also look for the stock to settle at approximately a 5% discount to the deal price.

  • Reply to

    THIS IS HOW SHARES WILL BE TENDERED

    by baked421 Mar 28, 2016 9:43 AM
    baked421 baked421 Mar 28, 2016 10:14 AM Flag

    There are literally 1,000's of illegal activities up and down Wall Street everyday. There are 10-100 times that in unethical activities. Legal or illegal makes no difference. How many times does the SEC prosecute an executive each year? Twice?

    You can steal a $50 car stereo and end up in jail for a couple years.
    On Wall Street you can literally steal hundreds of millions from shareholders and if you are the unluckiest man in the world and somehow get caught by the SEC, you'll get exposed, fined, and told to clean up your act.

    Welcome to Wall Street.

  • On the last call, Eric spoke about how he "scubbed" the backlog numbers. Any revenue that isn't 100% guaranteed can be dropped from backlog. To get everyone to tender their shares, watch for a sudden unexpected drop in backlog to be reported in a couple days. This will get everyone to think the growth story is over and they'll tender shares and move on to greener pastures.

    Easy as pie for Eric and the rest of the boys.

    Everyone does know why this deal is being done right?

    2-3x pay increase for Eric and the other top executives post merger.

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