See HPQ results /action
Lot of my friends are on BBM as well
Has to outbid Lenovo
Instead of $9 in cash, offer 1 share of Fairfax for every 40 shares of BBRY or $10.50/bbry share. Fairfax is trading at 420. Make it all shares. offer means deal needs no financing because it is all share offer.
9 (Fairfax) - 9.70 (Lenovo) - 10 (Qualcom/Cerb/Mike*Doug ..bidding process at work?
Then you have the big guys Google, Apple, Microsoft, FB, Orcl, Intc, IBM, Samsung etc..with 250B+ in collective cash and they can come in in the last minute and scoop the whole thing for 500M more than the highest bidder. So there is chance this thing can finally go for 10 to 11. What do you think?
Long overdue that this trades above 9
Some time in 2014 they could be setting the next 5 to 10 year EPS goal.
The price behavior says market is convinced about Fairfax deal as well. It has rallied from the lows steadily to 8.40 and I wouldn't be surprised to see it end the week closer to 9. Next Monday after the def. 9 dollar deal, it could hover around 9 for a few hours/days and then could jump above 9 as activists or other suitors come in. Interesting action could happen between def deal and shareholder vote, that is when hedge funds, activists, etc.. could come in.
I am just stating what Mr. Watsa has said..."If we didn't think we didn't have the financing, we wouldn't enter into an offer"..something like that he said ...
5. John Scully
10. Canada Pension/banks
Other possible: Microsoft, Samsung, Intel
$260 in 2014: IBM could trade again at 13X forward earnings next year or $20 in 2015 * 13 = 260
Other possibility is all these guys join together with Pension funds and banks and become part of the consortium. Mike Laz could become the executive chairman of the new private co. With Doug F in a key role.. may be CEO..don't know. Wild card.. Microsoft.. don't rule out yet...
The stock is currently languishing during the transition period. Could this be acquired?
There is a chance that Cerberus or Mike Laz could make a higher than 9 offer. Though I think Mike will join Fairfax. Cerberus is different. Eventually Fairfax may increase their bid if Cerb. makes higher bid because Fairfax's cost is $17 and knows the true potential of BBRY with 2.3B less in expenses next year and the value of BBM Inc.
I expect MiKe Laz, Doug F, CPPB, Canada banks to join Fairfax. Cerberus may surprise with a higher bid.
Here is how I think it will play out...
Between Fairfax, Mike Laz, DougF they own 18%. They will team together. Canada pension funds will increase their equity stake so that between all of the above parties they will own at least 1/3rd. The remaining 2/3rd of the shares will be bought back at $9/share. Fairfax already has the commitment for the $3B needed... so I think it is a done deal... I find it a great work-out opportunity to buy here at 8.10ish level for a 11% return opportunity in three weeks. That is an annualized return of 180%...The risk is there is no definitive offer but Fairfax has repeatedly said they are putting their 28 year reputation on the line on the $9 offer.
Next three weeks could see lots of activity. By end of November this could be all over. By Dec/January after being taken private everyone will forget all the noise that is going on now. This thread is likely shutdown.
We will see.