Oh gosh. I'm regretting to inform you this but,
That book value is total nonsense to the 9th power.
Just do this, have any financial advisor or CPA look at the books with you.
Mjna is just a shell game of non performing assets.
And if that doesn't faze you,
Their revenue isd dropping, despite the so called book value of the 'assets',
They printed a billion shares last year(at least they are forthright there )
Outstanding is at least 2.8 billion
And they have 20mm in debt.
Their assets are total nonsense.
They just wrote doiwn one phony entry,
The 100mm asset foir kannaway to 15mm,
Its worth maybe 1mm
2mm with Blake in charge now.
But hge is a sort of company jumping phony.
And then add Back the R+D spend, now approaching .50/quarter.
That is would Be profit that is ensuring an even brighter future.
There is a tax benefit to the reinvestment, so net of that effect , the company earnings power is closer to $5/share in current year.
Given the 85% gross margins and 50% rev growth this is a 150$ stock masquerading as a 118$ stock.
Wall Street is infatuated with growth leaders.
Its a non event to the professional on wall street. You are wasting bandwidth.
Only a low info investor would buy because of a split.
Lol, yes they are dying to own a company in contraction mode with a dubious leader. Plenty of company that aren't losing revenue pay 2.5% divy. Aapl had its day. It was really good until Jobs died and his ideas have now matured. The company has nothing special anymore
Actually I understated R/D. It was 5bb in 2015 equating to 1.70$/share. So we earned about 3.00 I. Actual operations in 2015, after taxes, just backing out R+D .
Those would be GAAP figures.
Adjusted gaap would be over 4$/share
Looking forward, as money managers tend to do....FB easily looking at generating $5 in 2016 ....(r/d being 2$/share this year), and maybe 6-7 in 2017, all told.
We are growing 52% currently, but just a 25*6 is 150$ share. 35 p/e gets you 180$ . I expect 150+ to be a pretty easy target, this year.
In a stampede, maybe 175 by EOY.
That's my opinion.
Just flip the aapk chart upside down and there you have it, FB's week. Polar opposite to a Tee.
Well thanks Captain Obvious. :)
Hmm, let's see, -13% rev contraction vs 52% revenue growth and better margins up and down the P+L...by a wide margin.....
Aapl had the last big thing and they have passed the torch. Google will continue to lose to FB (advertising $$$) and when others were selling last week I was buying OTM calls. Some are ITM now and the rest are darn close.
I'll rotate into long term calls this week. Already got some for monthly expiry in MaY.
Every dollar it went down I bought more after that monumental ER.
Just look at the last 4 sequential Q's.
All beats , sequentially, 6%, 9% 16% and 24% .
Shut the front door, my bear friends.
A tidal wave of money flow will ensue, especially now that PM's can digest the landscape of what is working in this environment. FB is arguably recession proof.
4BB in R/D this year, maybe more. investing 1.35+/share eps in favor of a class leading investment in the future success of the firm.
Well, most of their stock based compensation goes to R/D...A huge % really.
They are aligned, very well, with the future growth of the company valuation/stock price.
They are not given huge salaries and sent off on their way. Exact opposite. Results equal compensation.
I rather like that.
What else does the R/D for the company?
Other than providing employment for some of the most talented folks on earth, it provides a large tax benefit,
enhancing cash flow.
So some of the R/D spending is offset with a tax allowance for the company.
Still, you need to add 1.00/eps to all your figures , with the associated 30-70 p/e, based on growth, to get a clearer picture of the facebook model.
one of the fastest, if not the fastest, growth rate of any large 'tech' is the fact that we are not currently adjusting EPS for the 1.35/year EPS that we forego for future domination. For those of you who have done their research and know how AMZN is valued (on sales growth, dominance, CEO, and figuring out what earnings would be like with their massive investment in their future put back into earnings. Doing that gives you a real world idea of what operations is generating. So while AMZN really has minuscule earnings (you know currently 1.00 per quarter), like FB, Wall St realizes that they can pull several different levers to goose reported earnings, if need be. So their p/e is 5-8x FB's, or thereabouts.
So, my point is, you are getting way more value than the current reported GAAP, or even adjusted GAAP would indicate. If we to value on the AMZN valuation model to some degree(why not, as I have argued) and look at the FANG/class leader in revenue growth, and we add the solid GAAP earnings, one can come to a very lofty valuation.
I am not saying it gets there overnight. It wont. Too many shares/profittakers to chew through on a daily basis.
Then there is the technical triple top breakout. You can see on the 5 year, the big uptrend is jumping to a new level, and my eyes see the chart possibly starting a steeper ascent as it pivots upward.
When you have so many billions of money flow on a daily basis, and it is even getting very close to AAPL's daily money flow(and they have a 2x + valuation) maybe you can see where I am going on this.
Once the 5ema on the daily catches up to the bottom of these candles, after the jump, I expect a big, sustained move.
The weekly and daily MACD history and position currently are rather indicative , and confirming of my entire thesis.
Large volume allows for large, sustained moves.
Watch the daily volume for confirmation.
no other company can touch FB's combo of REV growth, margins, and investment for the future (massiveness) of the company. The money they are investing in R+D is staggering. Is this helping the current earnings?
Probably not. In fact, it is diminishing earnings by about 4BB/year, or about a 1.35 EPS. Beside the dominant, unassailable business (with a moat that would make WB blush), arguably one of the best visionaries/managers in the world at the helm, one
The Company has also begun preparing an application for a Florida client to advise and assist with the preparation and submission of a completed application under the Florida Compassionate Care Program. The Florida law is focused on providing a legal framework for the accessibility of prescription medicinal cannabis oil to patients suffering from cancer or medical conditions that chronically produce symptoms of seizures or severe and persistent muscle spasms. The Company's engagement is underway, and the Company expects to timely file its client's application prior to the deadline of July 6, 2015. The State of Florida plans on issuing five licenses for establishing facilities to cultivate and process medicinal cannabis oils. Successful applicants will be eligible to open an unlimited number of retail medicinal dispensaries. Subject to Florida granting the Company's client a license, the Company will consult and advise with regard to the facility design, deployment, employee training, and on-going operations of the cultivation and oil processing facility and medicinal retail outlets.
look at the dip from Q4 2014 to Q1 2015 vs. this years delta.
from .52 to .42 last year,
then after a crushing earnings report in Q4 2015,
we actually almost matched it in a seasonally slowest quarter,
.79 to .77 ...
logical progession and monetization momentum should send the analyst estimates to the moon.
Guess the Q2 will be a lot of fun.
cheers longs. I bot some 115's today on the dip. I know a lot of you guys did too (judging by volume)
I disagree. I think derivatives, like oils for pen capes and edibles/drinkables are where the consumers will want to be.
Smoking anything will soon be passe.
Thank you for your input. I think my purchase implies and belies my belief that the stock will go way past 120 in the next 2 weeks.
As each other had from day 1. These guys are 100% aligned as common shareholders.
No oreferreds outstanding, no warrants to speak of(I think there is 250k at .61 for the CFO, which is also good)
Tight SGA spend. Impressive for a public company, and an 80% growth in gross profits.
Loss was 1/10th of a penny in Q4.
That's why I'm in with Corey and Ellis.
Deep in the money, to me, just means more risk capital at risk. Options, to me, are for outlier company's.
Since last quarters beat the stock has gone nowhere and the market has risen a ton.
I believe this week will unwind that contradiction, for what is one of the worlds greatest businesses.
If Zuck continues to play his cards right this will be the largest company on earth. I believe he is in the 3rd inning of that process.
All bias is up after this google nonsense.
I stated I bought at 1$, and am going to mitigate risk b4 earnings. This a spec directional bet on Zuck. I think he is a vicious biz man and the 4 sequential ever increasing beats over expectations is not an anomaly. They will beat, just by how much is in question.
If it goes to 120 Thursday, am. They will sell for 2-3$. If 130, well within last quarters % move, it goes to 13$. It it stays or goes down , then I was wrong.
I'm in for the 120 strike. I not at a dollar yesterday. I'll guess an up move into Wed, on balance, will allow me to sell half and ride the others for free.
I should probably go more long than that plan dictates, but options are so inherently risky, I'd rather not be 100% wrong.