estimates were raised by 28%!
I'm not a good pumper lol.
those questions were answered as well. might want to listen again and listen to Q1.
but since one of these questions is easy to answer I will help,
they sell almost all their Eth in the spot market, although some of the Idaho plant is contracted, it is a small %.
You need to look into Kinergy and you need to realize revs grew 37% not because the price of ethanol.
You also need to realize the profit potential from 3rd party gallons they broker in a rising margin environment.
Think about it peix buys ethanol today and sells tomorrow and pockets the delta.
It helped them in Q1, hurt in Q2, and will help again in Q3 due to the slopes of the margin chart over time.
This will be a very big Q. Madera and less interest on debt=big profits, on top of what I just spoke of.
im sorry $5 eps run rate at current margin, 6+ if corn goes to 3 and eth is just steady. so , you get additional 20 cents per gallonx200mm=40 mm - taxes = just over another $1 per share earnings. at a 12 p/e that gets you a price target in the 70's....and that does not factor in the cash on the balance sheet attributable to shareholders.
I am aware of the analytics you speak of. I was trained by two Wall St pro's one of whom partnered in a bulge bracket firm after leaving GS and the other is a writer for Institutional investor. But that aside,
$3 corn, assuming ethanol steady saves 20 cents (3.60-3.00=60 / 2.8=roughly 20 cents) per gallon on input, but gives up a couple of those margin cents for probable lowered values for coproducts corn oil and wdgs
So while margins are about .92 right now (200mmgy *92 cents =180 mm GP, 120mm after taxes and just under $5 eps run rate vs about $4 eps run rate currently.
Watching cali eth daily I have to tell you, along with sept ethanol contract breakout, that I believe a spike in cali eth is coming very very soon. Those darn rail equipment issues. I worked in rail logistics many years ago, as another aside. I used to talk with the VP at the CN regularly in my capacity.
there are a lot of people here who have just enough info to be dangerous, to themselves and others.
They should be taking classes at IBD or something that way they can get above the masses of mediocre investors
bergy, this is a quote from the SA piece-not me. The warrants are nearly all exercised and the street has adjusted their share counts as has yahoo, so im not sure what you are talking about
easily 30 in a few weeks.
that is the first time I have ever missed the t. He is my hero. My ex is a nurse-she's educated, just annoying and petty like you.
this coming week.
From the author just yesterday in a convo in the comments section.-
'2. If you think REX is undervalue, PEIX is waaaaay undervalued. The current TTM P/E is grossly skewed by a fair value adjustment of its warrants that occurred in Q1, turning a potentially largely positive EPS into a largely negative one (-$0.69). This is a result of a spike in their stock recently. They have since been trying to settle all their outstanding warrants and have significantly reduced them in Q2. As a result, I don't see such an outlier event happening again. Adjusting for the fair value adjustment hit in Q1 then, PEIX's forward P/E is in the mid/high teens, and I believe even lower than REX's! This will be the further research and topic of my next article to be published next week.'
news you can use. raw and unadulterated. Just for my lazy friends
I filed for divorce. Anyways lazy uneducated people love when others spoon feed them. Buffet says the market helps those who help themselves.
You are entitled to your opinion. Have you ever added anything here? I put you in the same category as biff and ray. noise.
where did this ego #$%$ come from?
I never stated I was better. I really could care less what people think.
There is enough great info coming out on peix that no one should feel the need to pump it.
I have been labeled a basher. Whatever. Call me what you want I just post as I see it. Like you mentioned once, and you were correct.
I did get a chuckle about your CHS article that states they are opening a ton of e15 pumps.
When you tied the companies together saying 'bi golly I think it is the same CHS' or whatever.
I laughed. that was very bumpkinish.
and the reason my estimates, as I wrote later, was that I had misunderstood the RIN price.
That 50 cent rin x 36mm gallons for the quarter was the delta you speak of. I was trying to get to the crazy 3.15 est Sidoti had. Just like Kelly, Sidoti threw me a curve that I did not discover immediately.
So I agree with you. When you make as many prognostications as I do you open yourself to criticism. That is fair.
I thought she was great too, until I dd'd the items she posts. She changes and adds to headlines at her whim, misconstrues basic concepts, misinterprets data, lacks a discriminating eye, and her spelling speaks to a poorly educated bumpkin. Then she posts the same items relentlessly.
Then she goes over to twits creates a phony name and spams the same #$%$ day and night.
She does not understand the basic tenants nor the importance of balance sheet and income statement items.
She thinks warrant money is attributable to profits, etc etc.
If you are an average investor who is lazy I am sure she seems fantastical. The issue's are clear as day if you go over her posts with a critical eye and a little investigation.
Then there is her obsession with ray. good grief.
She is what she is....