I already figured in the delay at Madera, vs the start of the quarter. I gave it credit for only 5mm gallons vs 10mm in a full quarter.
The west cst premium was most pronounced in march and april, giving equal weight to Q1 and Q2.
for example, april 1st was a margin of 2.04!
cali ethanol took weeks from there to drop below 3.00, so I basically disagree with the assertion you made.
Distillers grains went down in proportion to lower corn prices, so the same rough proportion of coproduct return vs the cost of corn should be seen. if corn goes down 30 and WDG's go down the same %, there is no loss to the company. However, Peix's WDG's sell at a premium, A. because everything in Cali sells for a premium and B. It's high moisturecontent saves farmers money on water, and therefore the price of WET distillers grains has actually held up better. Advantage PEIX.
Their model is working.
as a benchmark
last quarter, Q1-
38mm + gross profit (vs. less than 1 mm in 2013, as an aside)
so gross profit was 95 cents per gallon
however, the iowa state margin model was an average of just .72 per gallon for the entire Q1,
for Q2 the iowa model averaged 84.7 cents per gallon, a large increase from last quarter
with madera 1/2 the quarter of Q2,
45MM gallons sold for Q2.
goss profit equals 1.08 cents per gallon (margins went up 13 cents quarter to quarter, so .95 becomes 1.08 per gallon)
48.6 MM gross profit for Q2
44.6MM operating income
-3mm early debt extinguishment
+1mm FVA (stock closed 30 cents less than Q1)
-2mm for interest and preferred div
40.6MM income BEFORE taxes and 91% ownership adjustment
8MM provision for income taxes(that should be generous given NOL carry forwards)
32.6MM*91%= 29.6MM net income attributable pixie shareholders
share count is about 21MM
=1.41/per share EPS
** note I ran some adjustments and the maximum range I can foresee given the info that is public
is from $1/sh -1.59/sh for the quarter.
1.41 is not 'my guess' per se, but it is the best number I have given the data available.
I have not signed up for twits yet. i will buy puts on peix when the time is right. The weekly chart and macd position dovetails nicely with my overall thoughts on the name.
It looks like it has set up for the possibility of a gigantic move, once over 19.
neither yahoo or twits is close to perfect, but twits might keep me saner and provide more timely info and user analysis (most of which i ignore)
I have my finger directly on the info that keeps me abreast of the overall direction and quantity of contribution margins etc.
I believe the perfect storm of events is about to unfold and become more widely understood and discounted by the street.
I'm long 150 calls going into earnings.
That is where i stand.
PEIX is still the most undervalued.
blowout earnings this week
corn at 4 year lows.
great margins for as far as the eye can see.
or get your price.
corn is hitting new lows, down big overnight.
I'm going to stocktwits and I hope you guys will come say hi and share your thoughts.
It's a good platform and yahoo has more disadvantages.
Tha lot of nice people on this board, but it is time to emigrate. I am a man of principle and do what I say-in this case I hand the floor over to the attention seekers and bickerers.
9 out of 10 posters are infatuated with the board tool.
They play right into his sociopathic tendencies.
Peace out and have fun playing with Ray.
It seems most normal people will have nothing to do with this board, and I will happily join them.
loading another strike on the next dip.
I am literally buying everything I can. I practice what I preach.
I'd rather not disclose my intended strike purchase, but
I will say it will be a very bullish bet on PEIX.
I'm sure those who did their DD are doing the same.
from Platts survey. came out AFTER the close yesterday.
92 cent margin currently off of Midwestern pricing.
up 9 cents wed
up 4 cents thurs
down 1 cent Friday (corn was down over 8 cents)
cali premium currently 26 cents.
WDG vs DDG premium ...? but it is significant.
consecutive 'bullish engulfing candles', or outside days as some say
the body of Thursdays candle fully engulfed the body of the previous day's candle, and the part that makes it rare, is that Fridays candle engulfed both Thursday's and Wednesday's candle.
what I really like is the positive macd position on the ethanol futures chart, the daily and weekly peix charts, and the nascent breakout on heavy volume, with continuous up days, and closing higher than the open on 10 consecutive days now.
The indication is that due to the investor conferences, financial metrics, and the lone analyst's revision this week, along with the epic fundamentals of ethanol, our WDG's, enhanced yield, LCFS credits(which along with RIN values have been on the move...
and the EPA RVO's will be out very soon.
Oh yea, and that earnings thingy.
OMG have you seen the price of CORN?
3.70 a bushel, less in cash markets.
charts confirm. we know the margins. we know the FVA is a plus this time. analyst sees .97
I see 1.00-1.55
Weekly MACD crossover this week. Technicals scream buy. We have all the ingredients here.
Buying more Monday. Just wired in more cabbage.
I am heavy into the Aug 17's. (been buying for 2 weeks) and some 18's for good measure.
cali ethanol up 13 cents wed and thurs since EIA report.
sometimes it's not complicated.
Cali ethanol added another 4 cents to yest's 9 cents. now at 2.44.
corn was flat.
this is driving exports off the West Coast. That, along with Cali comprising 25% of the domestic ethanol market, is keepin a strong floor on margins.
even the LCFS credits have been in rally mode along with RIN's
Converged bullish indicators and cheap valuations (REX and GPRE has seen profit taking, but not PEIX) make this such a great safety play and value proposition.