The last question is the show-stopper. Noble Partners is Pixie's unsung hero. Make no mistake, the question, and answers, were instrumental in the reversal and cadence of the move.
I am a little shocked that it is so quiet here. I think in 72 hours it will be an absolute zoo.
I'm not ashamed to say that I have been a 'big' buyer here the last 10 days. Will keep on buying before Tuesday.
Are you kidding me?
dewd, the bottom for margins was oct 1. in a rising margin environment KINERGY does well. Both facts.
Look at this way, GPRE gave up 10's of millions of profits earlier this year because of their narrow margin forward hedging. Anything is possible, so someone can ask the question. YMB vs. call in? Just call in...
I think it is (or should be ) widely known that because KINERGY is reselling others ethanol, in quarters that feature more decline in margin than expansion, it is a DRAG on ops. However in quarters like Q1, rising margins(and this quarter) will contribute more than normal. In steady environments(almost never) it would be neutral to positive.
It is 3% of daily vol. And....low info investor is a term I trademarked , but that's OK too.
only thing that held in back was the GS call on oil on Monday. Off to the races. Love that call action! Hope you guys got a couple!
you have a keen sense for the underlying matters of importance. Plus, we think alike, but more importantly are seeing the fruits of that understanding. Coming to a theatre near you!
that is correct dk. just remember, last Q GPRE did .84 iirc and PEIX did .67.
now we see 1.00+ for GPRE and PEIX, we are told to believe, will be .21.
I think any person who knows the models and what % GPRE was locked in (about 75% Q3), can surmise that
PEIX will do well over .21.
More importantly the fundamentals are going in the right direction!
The inverted head and shoulders chart patter on G, P. and R also are on the ethanol chart and even the margin per bushel chart I view daily from a certain source.
when I think of the remaining bear case for PEIX, I do not see a lotta of reward left for them. Maybe 1-2 down vs 10 up.
Only time will tell....
Those margins are for Iowa plant. Also their corn is locally sourced, not railed in . Cali is special with a 26 cent premium for ethanol. Margins are rising faster for Cali as the premium outpaces corn premiu m.
line 6 of my model should read '25 cent margins...' not 20.
and the current stock price assumes an ultra-bearish(read impossibly low) .25 margins. That's why this is poised for a gap to 15-land.
52MM cash 9/14
net cash to the shareholder is 35MM or 1.40 per share
stock at 11.73
net of cash sells for 10.33 or about an adjusted 258MM
20 cent margins on 200MM g=50MM gross profits
35MM pre tax
25MM after tax(that's conservative)
1.00 per share earnings on 25MM shares
so the market cap, net of NET cash on BS,
is 258MM/25MM annual earnings 10.5 P/E
my model would predict 25 cents per quarter. What is the est 21 or 22 cents?
Since my model assumes a modest 25 cent margins, and they were closer to 40-50 over the Q3 timeframe,
I don't see exactly how this wont be a huge beat.
Also the FVA is a net positive adjustment so that cant hurt, but wont help much since the OW are pretty slim.
Maybe this is why management has not sold during the downturn and they are reporting a week ahead of last year.
Now we have the start of a West Coast shortage of sorts, with Brazil inbetween crops and the Winter not even yet upon us. I imagine the rail issues will snowball. Having worked with the railroads in the intermodal biz, I don't put a lot of faith in them to right the ship once things get taxed.
There is no technical breakdown. I'm sure they are responsible for whatever weakness you see. Macd is starting a long bull trend. Gpre had too fills gap. Again weak commitment to the downside. Up almost 6% last week.