as per Iowa St CARD dept., does NOT include,
West Coast premium, net of trans.
The third to last number is margin per gallon.
In January and October margins dipped to exactly .39 after big moves, now our dip was .99
People were kvetching about how ethanol had retraced some of its enormous move of Jan-March and for that reason they were selling pixie.
Remember $1/g margins gets 200MM annual cash flow with Madera open. A 6x multiple would be very conservative.
So pick your average margin and model the time frame you are looking for and see what you get.
sounds like sour grapes.
analysts will come around.
great contrarian play dummy.
tells me there are people who don't like the propagation of the bull case.\
write a post...BOOM...2 minutes later a thumbs down/
thems be accumulators and or stubborn bears.
that's how yahoo works.
1. 0 insider selling
2. flexible feedstock, including higher margin sugar, essential for the possibility that they cant get all the corn they would need to stay in full production.
3. more corn oil separation
4 WDG's up last 10 weeks in a row.
5 softening nat gas prices.
6. weak corn. small dead cat bounce fading. Weak this week again. not softening ethanol prices AT ALL.
7. Record ethanol prices everywhere
8. some advanced milling tech installed
9. the entire Q will be 91% ownership vs mostly 85% Q4.
10. RIN's up the entire quarter. Free money to the refiner. Currently close to an additional 60 cents per gallon to the refiner. Plus they can unload any RIN's held for sale on their balance sheet.
11. Incredibly strong WDG and ethanol demand in the region and pacific rim.
12 I'm sure I forgot other ones, but again margins are close to 2$/g and ethanol up again Friday. Absolutely incredible.
At current margins they make $1/share in only 20 days (400k+gpd x$2 margin x 20 days). $2/share earnings for the quarter seem a probability. Roughly triple the estimate. Also revenues will show ginourmous increase YoY due to massive ethanol gains since Jan 1. up close to 70% on the left coast.
That's how I see it, and you are welcome to comment either way.
you may notice is the generally wont engage in a thoughtful discussion nor analysis.
IOW, they are just tools and fools who rarely offer anything of value in a debate.
you done good.
The guy cites 21 different works that he referenced in the voluminous dissertation on all things REGI.
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I'm still reading it. may take another 1/2 hour.
is that as the stock broke into 1-2 year highs not one insider sold a share. Ruminate
you have to be really stuck in the past to go into earnings flat.
Ask yourself, if insiders who know exactly what is going on with the biz, do not sell a single share on the rather large % move, then what possible reason, using currently available info, would one go flat into earnings.
OTOH, if they had been selling, I would pare some off too.
This company, with warrant $ and cash flow to the nines, is in a major de-risking evolution.
current ratios, debt per gallon, overall debt and interest carry will be significantly in flux, and known to the street in a few days.
I will be there. No equivocation necessary.
I bot Friday and will buy more before earnings.
risk is a 1.50 down and there really is no upside cap, esp if BTC is passed and/or the glycerin value added products pan out in any way.
I posted all the data. I realize you are strong with numbers. have a look and see for yourself.
There has not been a real turning point in the fundamentals-anything but.
This is just a needed correction for ethanol.
and you will see ethanol on West Coast is still above the elevated levels of just 10 days ago when pixie management said margins were so big and unsustainable.
their cost of production is 1.8/g so at 3.20 margins are 1.40
and 2.80 is a mouth watering 1.00/share
so let us just keep things in perspective, and realize that frozenomics is not what has driven the cash flow for 3 quarters to be very positive, but it did create a spike of insane margins that is just gravy for a spot player like pixie.
I believe the week will end over 15/sh
REGI n PIXIE screaming knucklehead buys for those who like a margin of safety.
Argo, California Spot Ethanol Prices Rally on Shipment Delays
Spot ethanol prices rose in early trade, with the biggest rally seen for product in Chicago and on the West Coast, where there's talk of train delays in making deliveries to terminals in those regional hubs. Energy Information Administration data released Wednesday showed supply in both regions flat last week at 6.4 million barrels (bbl) in the Midwest and 1.8 million bbl along the West Coast. Domestic implied demand inched up 0.2% at 852,000 barrels per day (bpd), with demand for both ethanol and gasoline expected to climb ahead of the ...
as to regi, look at balance sheet. NAV, or shareholder equity, net of goodwill, goes ffrom 35MM 2 yrs ago, to over 500MM at last report. Meanwhile the stock went nowhere. Amazing. No matter what happens with congress and windfall tax credits possibly looming, their newly formed life sciences division will be further vetted (upcoming products from their waste glycerin stream(listen to the last 2 conf calls) later in April. They will hold an investor c/c then, which will blow the lid off how their patent portfolio and mindshare gained by the ls9 acquisition will utilize their 'waste' glycerin (byproduct from biodiesel production) will add a new layer of incremental profits to add to their profitable diesel biz.
The beauty of having so much cash and cash flow is that they can leverage their liquidity to have the best of breed plants, efficiency, and make pretty much whatever acquisitions they believe will fit their existing models and enhance them.
They literally can buy earnings. Which they did with the LS( and SYNM buyouts, although synm is still pending awaiting synm s/h approval.
The ceo, west point grad, Japanese American, mba, chemistry degree, bulletproof resume and no wonder they will turn this into a 1BB plus company by the end of next yr.
Screaming m/f buy.
for the record.
at $4 margins are 2.25
so eth on west coast is 340ish
margins are still 1.65 roughly on west coast.
eth drops a dollar from here and the stock is fairly valued, but that wont happen anytime soon.
demand will really pick up, ie exports, if eth falls.
Type messageThey have stated on the record that they want to grow the company if the opportunity makes sense.
They had about 7mm cash the last few years as the scraped by with refi's, offerings, etc.
We will see where they are in a couple weeks. We can all prognosticate(I sure do), but the proof will be in the pudding sort of speak.
If someone opposes the way they operate, or their plans, or some combination thereof then they can sell, short, buy puts sell naked calls, whatever.
When you put all the puzzle pieces together, the risk factors, and the known, you say is 200mmg of production worth
the market cap of 300mm.
When margins are close to 1.50/g with RIN's, I would say that paying 1.50 per gallon vis a vis the current market cap
is a decent proposition.
Maybe I will be wrong, but that is the risk I enjoy taking.
this pullback reminds me of that move. Those that bot in the 6's would see the 15-16 range a month later.
My guess is that those that buy in the low teens will be looking at similar gains rather soon.
Fundamentals always prevail. Eventually they will pound the table for pixie but it will be much higher by then.