company is 'purposefully' pushing stock down.
the last time I heard that the stock went from 10.50 to 19.50 in 11 weeks.
Then the company did 5 investor conferences.
Anyways now some gomer on stocktwits is starting the runor mill once again.
anyone seen wpbhouston after he went to seek legal advice?
Some people just should keep their money in another asset class.
This must be a reflection of popular culture, although no one has claimed that the corporate headquarters has experienced a zombie apocalypse. So I guess we still have a ways to go down this path of ridiculousness.
there's some political firepower for ethanol progress.
ethanol up over 5 cents and corn basically flat.
which was in spite of a solid down day for corn and rbob.
ethanol chart has filled the gap and looking at a macd xover soon.
stupid dumb easy buy here.
from Platts survey. came out AFTER the close yesterday.
92 cent margin currently off of Midwestern pricing.
up 9 cents wed
up 4 cents thurs
down 1 cent Friday (corn was down over 8 cents)
cali premium currently 26 cents.
WDG vs DDG premium ...? but it is significant.
i cant believe you and biff still entertain him. He's here because idiots talk to him
our plants are worth 700MM alone. Nearly impossible to build new plants unless they are advanced biofules and low carbon. hmmm. Must listen.
loading another strike on the next dip.
I am literally buying everything I can. I practice what I preach.
I'd rather not disclose my intended strike purchase, but
I will say it will be a very bullish bet on PEIX.
I'm sure those who did their DD are doing the same.
consecutive 'bullish engulfing candles', or outside days as some say
the body of Thursdays candle fully engulfed the body of the previous day's candle, and the part that makes it rare, is that Fridays candle engulfed both Thursday's and Wednesday's candle.
what I really like is the positive macd position on the ethanol futures chart, the daily and weekly peix charts, and the nascent breakout on heavy volume, with continuous up days, and closing higher than the open on 10 consecutive days now.
The indication is that due to the investor conferences, financial metrics, and the lone analyst's revision this week, along with the epic fundamentals of ethanol, our WDG's, enhanced yield, LCFS credits(which along with RIN values have been on the move...
and the EPA RVO's will be out very soon.
Oh yea, and that earnings thingy.
OMG have you seen the price of CORN?
3.70 a bushel, less in cash markets.
pricing power and efficiencies and scale the multiple for future cash flows is really cheap.
they could pay a nice premium (;)) and do very well.
It's pretty clear pixie alone will generate 6-8 dollars of cash per share in the next 6 quarters.
The 10Q says the capex in 2nd half will return a million dollars per month in extra profit.
as a benchmark
last quarter, Q1-
38mm + gross profit (vs. less than 1 mm in 2013, as an aside)
so gross profit was 95 cents per gallon
however, the iowa state margin model was an average of just .72 per gallon for the entire Q1,
for Q2 the iowa model averaged 84.7 cents per gallon, a large increase from last quarter
with madera 1/2 the quarter of Q2,
45MM gallons sold for Q2.
goss profit equals 1.08 cents per gallon (margins went up 13 cents quarter to quarter, so .95 becomes 1.08 per gallon)
48.6 MM gross profit for Q2
44.6MM operating income
-3mm early debt extinguishment
+1mm FVA (stock closed 30 cents less than Q1)
-2mm for interest and preferred div
40.6MM income BEFORE taxes and 91% ownership adjustment
8MM provision for income taxes(that should be generous given NOL carry forwards)
32.6MM*91%= 29.6MM net income attributable pixie shareholders
share count is about 21MM
=1.41/per share EPS
** note I ran some adjustments and the maximum range I can foresee given the info that is public
is from $1/sh -1.59/sh for the quarter.
1.41 is not 'my guess' per se, but it is the best number I have given the data available.
they even beat on revs even though revs are like 'meh' to the astute ethanol investor.
Good morning bears.
peix neutral in Dec 13 at 4$, now 21.41
downgrades rex last week and lowered their estimate to about 2.00 for the quarter.
REX killed it during a 3 month period that did not include a spike in margins. Honestly looking at things, I thought they might do as high as 2.20
Very surprised as I'm guessing others are too.
I read their quantitative analysis. As usual their figures are somewhat lagging the current figures. This is normal for outfits like TheStreet since human hands and editing are not a big part of the report.
IBD has now digested the numbers and as such is starting to reflect and publish ratios and numbers more inline with the current financials.
So, if you are keeping track at home
6 to 1 institutional adds at last report. New reporting complete in 12 days, by the way.
Gregg Engles took a 5%+ stake (read his bio)
Sidoti just updated their estimates and sees Q3 bigger than Q2 and 3.50/sh earnings in 2014.
IBD just starting to publish the latest ratings with NEW financials available now.
TheStreet (remember the bearish articles the last few months,,, 'PEIX, todays dead cat bounce...' ,'Why peix is down after hours' (I mean really???)....
.....has now changed their tune even though the nubers they use are still not up to date with the solid numbers last week.
So...the recognition, like the weekly MACD, is in its nascent stages of a formidable move and revaluation.
Thus the multi year breakout Friday.
have put the ethanol chart into 'blast-off' mode.
incredible for bulls, not so good for our frenemies
I would not be surprised if they attract SEC attention.
a dozen red flags and a scheister as ceo.
way worse than my perception, which was not good.
inventory shortage in cali was noted in EIA report, 4 days ago.
corn macd just had negative xover, and ethanol just had positive xover, so the trend is just beginning on both fronts.
as always, follow the fundamentals.
also wait til someone contradicts the oil propaganda fallacy that ethanol is inflating corn and food costs.
as corn sees multi yr lows even though corn use for ethanol is at record high...
dk, you are correct in your analysis. even more telling is the extremely nascent daily MACD xover (the value is .001 positive.(it doesn't get much lower than that!
The weekly macd is the one that I have been really smitten on. It has all the trappings of telegraphing that a big move is beginning.
Honestly REX and GPRE are way overbot and will underperform peix in the near term.
However, GPRE's strength will sling shot us higher as the earnings are to be stronger in second half.
This will be a powerful and sometimes violent move.
Another catalyst is market participants absorbing the institutional adds which are starting to be reported now and will be all reported in 13 days.
Like ive said the PM's will consume the bears. Just look at money flow on the rise.
The last time there was a pocket pivot to 14.41 3 weeks ago, within 8 days the stock was over 18.
This pocket pivot to 17.17 will provide the foundation to the chart to send this much higher before a rest is in order. The daily BB is up near 20 and rising. I expect the stock to rocket out of the BB this week.
Be careful trying to flip shares until the RSI gets above 80, well above 80.
tells me 19 should be an easy close. 19.50 if the dow closes +100
does this mean peix went up after earnings this go-around?
Never look backwards, especially when 2 quarters ago it did 65% in one day.
Must be gen y traders.
bet you might have forgot the company, unlike gpre, has a ton of net cash.
1.5mm more warrants is 11mm more dollars coming.
20-30MM in free cash flow per
by end of year company will have 100mm+ cash if no acquisitions.
dwell on that for a moment.