each share would be 1900.00 at current valuations....(the power of cash!)
SSS 6.4% so far in Q1.
Gl to da Bears.
the shorts are getting squeezed on a 30 p/e stock with just the prospects of double digit earnings growth in 17 and only single digit growth for 16. The ceo states 2-5% for 16 in fact.
now unlike mnst, pnra has $20/share debt and is using most of its cash for buybacks and capex to upgrade stores,
also, margins are still contracting slightly, although that should change over the next 4-5 quarters there.
Meanwhile our MNST franchise has no debt and about 17$ cash per share and no debt.
Margins are rising, there is very little capex but a big buyback too.
Earnings growth, there is the rub.....
I believe it will be better than PNRA's in every quarter for the eye to see.
MNST is exposed to the increasing pressures of minimum wages like Panera, but does get the tailwind of lower commodities, some at 10 year lows, lower trans from copackers and LA.
Ex cash MNST sells for about the same p/e, but panera doesnt have a KO with skin in the game, and looking for 'bolt on ' earnings as the CEO stated this week in the CC there.
Now we know KO beat and mentioned MNST as a growth driver, even though we are a small portion of their sales base, especially with only a 20% equity stake. KO needs MNST, it need the other 80%. That would give their 42BB in annual sales a decent bump. Complimentary margins too.
I dont know it Rod and Hilton would get the value they would want for an early exit situation, but I know that KO needs us more than we need them, although it helps :)
BTW, the consumer discretionary spending figure out yesterday didnt hurt either.
I have seen so many waves of bears get their face annihilated here over the last 11+ years, and i believe the next few weeks will be classic Monster.
I own March calls and will extend them if im correct. Reg FD stuff
when i first got into Hansen it was about 38$ but had only 11MM O/s
i think their earnings were about 4MM that Q lol
well, the 3BB is partly coming back to shareholders per Rod and Hilt.
That is likely to be announced next week.
They have several new catagories they are about to announce(using the energy complex) over this year,
and a 1H release regarding shanghai and beijing, etc entry.
Redbull already sells 200MM cases there per year. They are currently the only player in town,
Meanwhile operating margins are approaching 40%!
That is pretax net income people because that is the only deduction after operating income.
The company will generate over 1BB in cash in 2016. (So they are top heavy in cash...a lite to non existant asset base requires de minimus capex.
Any accounting hack can see that...
Citron is out of their league and their minions in over their head here.
This will trade 130's this week.
200 and a split in 2016.
The bear case is lacking, and likely no one will debate the figures and outlook but i am game.
incredibly brilliant and humble managers. rod and hilt are worth 50$/share on their own merit.
almost zero mistakes that i can remember.
Price target 220
25% after tax margins
1.25 bb net
250+ target once 2017 numbers to be are digested.
Options up 300% in 2 weeks
Going for 3000%
You,re seeing the power of tccc and low commodities and trans costs. But the full benefits are still being realized in the income statements.
What has not been heretofore realized is the power of tccc, and of course the China (and other countries where monster is currently hitting the go button).
Its a big undertaking even for tccc to distribute billions of monster.
Just think of the warehouse space and extra trucks needed, for example.
My sense is that the reward will be huge.
I'm sad to see the Hansen soda line go to tccc though, although I know its better monetized by them.
5* more accretive than using 690mm for buybacks.
Putting aside other benefits,
60mm after tax gain
Equates to a positive impact of about 10$/share
On purely a static basis.
This will drive gross margins closer to 65% plus with no other tailwinds, of which there are still several,
Wealth effect at the pump from chgeap gas. Helps cs channel.
I have seen a headline cross subsequent to my post, that EPs revisions from this deal alone will adjust +8%...☺ not cents , but PERCENTaGes
Search it out. Totally amusing he is. Its great to see his pan of monster a day ahead of the conference call.
I know Rodney is going to be classic Rodney.
In 2004 Hansen actually withdrew its ticker from the German bourses because of the much talked about naked shorting emminating from that neck of the woods.
I ran into that release while investigating the German issue and thus began my DD back then that led me to buying some way back when.
Its not in a downtrend. You said it would see threes if not twos.
It is still forming a flag off the move from 1 to 8.
In fact you will notice higher loiws and lower highs.
On the can it says something else as far as year.
I have panned Chris for almost 2 years here, but the stock is still consolidating. Eventually will break either way though. Getting closer to that day.
I like your schtick.
Management is sending a message about future earnings.
That is enough to buy nearly 10% of all shares
Add the 8% accretion from the buyout and that is a combined earnings boost of close to 20%.
So when ko gets harmonized with their logistics earnings growth will be further boosted.
Profits grew from 125 to 138 mm this q.
And previous price increases
Muted the numbers a bit but more than anything it is the transition.
Rodney thinks its temporary, otherwise you don't spend 80% of your cash on company shares.
Huge statement, but lame Q
1 conservative management. No debt no bs guidance.
2 ko deal. Epic dist, and lowering costs
3 rapidly ascending margins
4 cash and cash flow for endless material buybacks
5 Nielson data indicative of growing market share and category
7 higher earnings with AFC deal
The so called premium val is 100% warranted and will stay premium until earnings accelerat
Lumpy quarters still averaging solid growth despite
Taxes higher this q
Extra SGA legal
Price increase shift