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Federal National Mortgage Association Message Board

baldingcontrarian 1010 posts  |  Last Activity: 1 hour 0 minutes ago Member since: Jul 24, 2003
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  • Reply to

    the funny and ironic thing is

    by baldingcontrarian 1 hour 15 minutes ago
    baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian 1 hour 0 minutes ago Flag

    actually WMB went from 72 cents to 50 and reinstituted massive divvy over years.
    so in total return that is at least 100 fold in 10 years

  • Reply to

    the funny and ironic thing is

    by baldingcontrarian 1 hour 15 minutes ago
    baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian 1 hour 4 minutes ago Flag

    peix is like a walk in the park in the value/turnaround investing genre.
    Anyone who was buying the merchant energy producers right after Enron knows exactly what I am talking about.
    there must have been 50 articles a week declariK for the whole sector....TheStreet.comme was head bear number one. Moody's and their ilk were downgrading their debt weekly., tripping over each other in the process. FERC was going to shut down the whole industry. That 's the FED's people. They were going to fine them into oblivion for their allegedlty gaming the entire western energy markets.

    Then the 30 baggers came. WMB, AES. RRI, even the ones that did eventually succumb to their debt
    DYN, MIR, CPN were 10+ baggers, the BK came much much later.

  • baldingcontrarian by baldingcontrarian 1 hour 15 minutes ago Flag

    we all love to debate and such.
    It really doesn't matter
    the stock does 2mm x15$ or about 30mm in transactions and money flow per day.
    that is a lot of cabbage.
    We are such minor players here.
    Yes all the acrimony and unnecessary foul chatter (ray/Kelly) clogs up the board.
    I've seen enough yahoo boards to know that crowding out intellectual convos is a primary tactic, along with attacking the board 'leaders' incessantly is a tried and true tactic of the interweb misfits.
    There was one little grat bio called RNAI a few years back. It made this board seem like MIT honors society.
    Based on the board chatter, one would probably rather find a vein than take part in that cyber-garbage....but alas, then the buyout came, and I believe it was about a 100% premium!
    You see a lot after 14 years of active investing and being on these boards.

  • Reply to

    100% ownership and PEHOLDCO

    by ethanolgogo 4 hours ago
    baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian 1 hour 32 minutes ago Flag

    that's not how I read it. those are different exhibits because they represent the boundaries between counter parties in the 91% transaction.
    each other 'owner' gets their own filing because they are distinct entities.
    When they go 100% im sure it will be plastered on the interweb by neil.
    So this is much ado about nothing.
    Sorry....

  • baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian 1 hour 38 minutes ago Flag

    wow, it went right back up after finally dipping below $3. Wed it was about 2.75 after being above 3 and 4 for weeks. The fundamentals of margins is top shelf stuff. We are very blessed. Not smart, blessed. Lucky too,.

  • baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian 1 hour 41 minutes ago Flag

    my ex wife is meaner. I'm not proud of that. Well I hope mine is worse, cause you wouldn't want worse than her. Ok, enough of that. Sorry.

  • Reply to

    peix is in the catbirds seat

    by baldingcontrarian 2 hours 33 minutes ago
    baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian 1 hour 44 minutes ago Flag

    it will gap down. The weekly chart (MACD/trendlines/volume) is extremely bullish(macd low tight and trending sideways. coiled off the 2 year flatline...

    We want a gap down . then buyers will rush in and the weekly tone will be positive as people spend nearly the entire week positioning ahead of earnings...

    if it closes the week above 15.40 , which seems easily achievable, the chartists will interpret that as the resumption of the up trend and it will build from there.

    The 14 area was tested under what I call the crucible, nasdaq 10% correction, ethanol correction to more rational levels, and the secondary. Like I said the money flow of 40mm shares traded in that area over the last 7 weeks overwhelmed the bears. the bottom and cupping formation above the 50 sma is technically very attractive.

  • interesting article in ethanol producer. fyi. enjoy. came out today

  • baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian 2 hours 31 minutes ago Flag

    you need a new hobby. or a GF or something blow up in nature.
    I dunno but something...

  • baldingcontrarian by baldingcontrarian 2 hours 33 minutes ago Flag

    no parent level debt
    tons of cash
    generating 500k to 1mm/day!
    only large refiner out WEST, proximity to ddg and eth export markets.

    I can guarantee you Neil has had a few phone calls from PE/oil refiners/other companies in the space.
    Neil was already very confident at the inv conf in early December.

    The dude pulled off a minor miracle saving the old peix, and now we shall earn the fruits of our persistence and profits.

  • baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian 2 hours 37 minutes ago Flag

    kel,
    the vlo buy was not running and may take months and $$$ to get up to speed.
    so the price they paid is at a discount, of course.

  • Reply to

    Monday morning she'll open @

    by imkellysgwart 6 hours ago
    baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian 2 hours 48 minutes ago Flag

    don't hold your breath

  • baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian 2 hours 50 minutes ago Flag

    their not there.

  • add these figures and they come to 28mm. they were 4.xmm short to complete the offering recently announced. Here is the language to get them to 28mm. Therefore there 2012 S3 was kaput.

    2) As of the date of this registration statement, the maximum aggregate offering price of securities which remain to be offered pursuant to the Prior Registration Statement is $23,438,826. The maximum aggregate offering price of the additional securities being registered hereby pursuant to Rule 462(b) under the Securities Act is $4,561,174, which represents approximately 20% of the maximum aggregate offering price of securities remaining on the Prior Registration Statement.

  • baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian 2 hours 59 minutes ago Flag

    thanks. respect that you read more sec mumbo jumbo than I do apparently.

  • baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian 3 hours ago Flag

    kel I think it would fetch closer to 1.8/g or 100mm.
    amtx has too much debt to give it up for much less.
    at 1.00 per g, it would take 1.75 years to recoup, maybe over 2 years with some capex in the mix.
    ok investment, but id rather wait til there is a low margin period, I think that would be safer.
    we'll hear from neil soon. why don't you ask the question

  • baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian 3 hours ago Flag

    they said they were trying to buy shares from the owners of the plants they have partial interests in, but in this environment they were not having much luck. Obviously that is paraphrased.

  • baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian 3 hours ago Flag

    I apologize but it is the 5% that you are unsure. When I read the offering it stated the previous shelf was nearly gone. I remember reading there was either 5mm or 18mm left, I cant remember the figure offhand. In fact I didn't understand how the offering could be effective, therefore. But I believe the figures I quoted must be for AFTER the offering was subtracted from the previous shelf.

    In this case there really is just a replacement shelf in the mix.
    I wish it was more dilution but it is not. Dilution does not scare me.
    I hope they sell another million shares at 30 or 40. That would be fine with me as I have stated.
    There is only one reason they are bolstering their cash, and it aint for ops.

  • baldingcontrarian baldingcontrarian 3 hours ago Flag

    ran out of room...

    Insiders have sold no shares despite a 500% recent return. Obviously they know something, being insiders, that we may not. Plenty of longs, conversely, have sold their shares. Now everyday, all day, we learn how gifted they are and how stupid longs are, even though they admit they are making nothing here.
    My old pal TX recovered a big loss and made a nice profit, but does not want to go through it again.
    That is what I call psychological investing, versus rational investing. The market doesn't care what the stock did and who felt pain or gain.
    The market only cares about future prospects. I too was down for 15 months on this stock.
    I took a different course though. Obviously the metrics were improving over the last 12 months before the run up. When the stock broke the tech. down trend in Dec, by breaking the wedge top line and closing above the 200sma consistently, a first in two years roughly. I posted here screaming from the top of my longs to buy all you could by Dec 4. I even went to other boards to get others looking into the nascent up trend.

    The technical and fundamentals are a screaming buy. The stock is just delayed in its ultimate journey, which is healthy. The base at 14-15 is on 30-50mm shares. Rock solid.

    The company will report on things soon. I expect massive cash flow. 19mm last quarter was great, but this will be double that. 37mm gallons for the Q times at least a dollar per gallon. lol, just RIN's averaged 50m cents for the quarter plus record eth prices, record ddg prices vs cost of corn, corn oil now and beet sugar.
    plus more ownership since December.

    The investment bankers bot the shares and paid 400% more than they would of just 4 months ago.
    Forget all I just said and think about that. They may not be as keen as the bears here, but for some reason they just plunked down 26mm. Follow the money.

  • they made a dollar per share in Q4 cash flow, almost certainly will be double that this quarter.
    that's 60mm in cash generated in 6 mos.
    that's a return on assets of nearly 100% on annualized basis.
    if your assets are returning even 15% it might be a good asset to have.
    I worked for an integrated refiner/marketer and 15% was their target. We got very large bonuses if we hit the target.
    So, if you have not noticed, eth companies are in a massive secular bull market.
    GPRE and REX are buying assets and or trying to get more equity in the plants they own partially(listen to REX c/c last month)
    PEIX is obviously flush with cash(15mm warrants, 25mm offering, 60mm cash flow last 6 months), and down to 48mm debt, all at the sub level.
    The S3 ensures flexibility to acquire more cash generating assets when the time is right(not now, but later on)
    It also supplies stock for a poison pill if a weak offer goes hostile and the board gives the suitor the finger.

    Shareholders are ultimately limited in their return by a limited asset base. If we had more assets now(ie why madera is opening)we would simply be generating more cash. If the additional gallons bring X amount of normalized cash flow and that amount is offset by Y new shares, depending on the ratio, will likely be accretive to shareholders despite a higher share count.

    For instance, after Q1 was over the company issued 1.75mm more shares which added 26mm to the company.
    But with Madera opening there will be an annualized 40mmg add to output which raises production by 25% and op income and cash flow above 25%. Why? Because the fixed overhead is well, fixed. SGA you know.
    Opening madera adds little to no incremental cost for the parent. The incremental cash flow gains would be more like 30% because of scalability and leverage.
    So the dilution added 9.5% dilution but concurrent to that is a 30% growth of cash flows. And the parent company debt is bye bye, while givingpeix opp for growth at the right time and price.

FNMA
3.82+0.01(+0.26%)Apr 17 3:59 PMEDT

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