LF, as I mentioned prior, I made a mistake and said so. I changed the numbers to reflect the mistake corrections. I'd be interested to see what you have to say.
As a lark, look up how many store manager positions are available with Tesla. Aside from sales chiefs, Tesla goes through those folks like water. Boston, DC, Orlando, Dallas, Miami, Dania, West Palm, they all are needing managers.
If Tesla business is so very good, I wonder why it's happening? Then again, I don't, really.
You "had" a close to break even? Really? Come on. What could you have possibly been looking at to come up with that statement? Did you not look at COS, SG&A, X build opportunities, gross profit? What in God's name could you see? I'm being serious and I'd appreciate you being honest in your assessment.
Mazdaki, he can't help himself. It's okay, though. I refuse to directly communicate with him. Instead of actually understanding the numbers, some look for mistakes. I've already said I made an error by using 13,000 sales for Q3. That number would have pretty much equated with published Sales revs. But the true number was 11,000 and change.
But like with all of these folks, when correct numbers are presented, they have zero ability to argue them.....just insults, or foul mouths.
LOL! That's pretty funny!
On a happier note, isn't it wonderful not having to sift from the idiotic insults from the few delusional, emotionally-challenged here? As long as numbers are posted, those folks will stay away like running from the plague.
JMC, I was merely trying to placate the zealots by using 17,000. I tried in every way to be gentle about it. We'll see how it plays out. I mean, Tesla does nothing at all to keep people informed, do they?
2 hours and 7 minutes ago I posted here the revised numbers. I initially made a mistake. I corrected it and re-calculated to ASP @$86,000.
Check out my changes.
Jc, the easy answer is, and ha always been, Tesla, the business, isn't all it's cracked up to me. Never has been. I remember when I spoke to John Walker. Nice guy, but clearly petrified at my questions. I'm pretty sure he agreed with me but was quite diplomatic. He left the company not too long afterwards.
Gator, I'll admit I went way out on a limb regarding SG&A as the numbers, at $308 million, greatly exceeded Q3. If Tesla holds the expense, it will easily result in lower losses by another $30-40 million. But as I learned many years ago: "You can't expense your way to profits."
Then again, the Tesla people might not be smart enough to figure it out. Maybe the new sales chief, who obviously has experience with controlling costs based on his prior Body Shops, will intervene before they get carried away. Who knows?
I know I sound like a broken record, but Tesla isn't built to make a profit. I submit it never will. The costs necessary to continue developing product will be too much to bear. The scope is infinitely larger than anything Musk can deal with, IMO.
Investor_Gator, I posted my Q4 forecast. I made a mistake and re-calculated. I'd be interested in reading your comments.
JMC, I already revised the numbers. I originally used 13,000 sales in Q3. It was 11,000 and change. I revised the ASP to $86,000 and re-calcualted the numbers. I used a 9% overall discount.
Okay. I originally used, from memory, 13,000 sales for Q3. I was wrong. It was 11,000+. So I re-calculated. These are the numbers:
1. 17,000 sales @ $86,000 per sale
2. $1.462 billion in auto revs
3. $83.234 million in Other Services revs
4. $1.255302 in Cost of auto revs (83.81%)
5. $70 million cost of Other Services (same as Q3)
6. $280.933 million in GP (19.2% - big reduction from Q3 as I mentioned some weeks ago which could happen)
7. $150 million in R&D (down $25 million from Q3)
8. $308 million in SG&A (big increase over Q3)
9. ZEV impact ???????
10. Revised losses of $211 million NOT counting a potential $45 million in Interest expense, etc.
Like I said many times, I'm NOT an accountant. Nit-picking by a few is pretty meaningless, IMO. Regardless, Q4 will be almost as ugly as Q3 based on a total blow-out of unsold inventory and massive pre-owned losses. The final 2015 losses will exceed $750 million just as I mentioned more than 8 months ago. What do I know about the EV business? And how can I be correct so many times?
Okay, I've run the numbers numerous times and I REALLY tried to provide the benefit of doubt to Tesla AND used 17,000 sales for Q4. It still comes up very, very bad. here's my breakdown:
1. $1.071 billion in auto revs
2. $84.2 million in other services
3. $832.167 million in Cost of Auto Revs - 77.7% ( Big problem! Average selling price will be lower than Q3)
4. Average selling price of $63,000
5. $70 million in Other Services cost of Rev
6. $253 million of GP - 27.7%
7. $150 million in R&D (Reduction versus Q3)
8. $296 SG&A - 27.7%
9. $45 million (Same Interest expense, etc as Q3)
10. And the number is..........A Q4 loss of $238,773,000. It's a big one, folks. Of course, the wildcard is ZEV credits which could lower the loss down to less than $200 million.
I'll say again. I'm not an accountant, nor a genius. But I feel comfortable with the numbers. I understand the business. AND I've given Tesla great leeway.
Let the thumbs down begin.
WHAT I said was I was interested to learn about what they did. I had zero interest in Tesla after meeting with Walker. I've said this the same way to you numerous, numerous times. Yet, you refuse to accept it. You really want to make it something else. You want to make it like I was somehow shunned or rejected. I really don't give a damn what you "think" you think. You've been wrong since Day One and you're still chasing that delusion, Mag-Ham-Omi.
Chas, I can say Montana was right. Staying away from direct contact with that other lunatic IS the way to go. That said, the people I quoted were the ones who wrote those articles. They don't understand the auto business much less the Tesla business. They only thing Dolev of Jefferies knows is how to prepare a DCF spread sheet. Most college sophomores can do it. Big deal. After all, it's all pie-in-the-sky stuff.
I know lots of people NOT in the auto business who have cursory knowledge about the auto business. Go beneath the 1st level and they are lost. Having been in the auto business, I'm pretty sure I could walk into any Tesla store and operate it right now. I'm likewise certain I could walk into the Palo Alto offices and take over the world-wide sales function right now. But of course my head would explode because I'd be surrounded by amateurs! And that's not the point because operating a store or the Tesla business isn't something I'd ever be interested in doing. Being here on the sidelines is much more fun! LOL!