Kbodie, you did gat the sales number. I'm not very good at pinning the sales numbers because of the dearth of info. But I can still be pretty strong forecasting the bottom line, though.
Tesla isn't interested in profits simply because the company is totally inept at making a buck. The heat is most certainly on the sales function as Musk continually churns the waters. That's why I initially said Tesla was having sales problems. Musk kept firing every sales chief. Now, if sales really were great and demand off the charts, what possible reason would Musk have to jettison people? He wouldn't have one. But since he appears to play this shell game with the media, no one seems to mind his micro-managing. Really, though, it's easy to dissect how Tesla operates. It appears it's done by intimidation. No grounded business leader operates like this. If Tesla had a BOD with half a brain, Musk would be in serious trouble. But his BOD is weak and all self-appointed. He's not going anywhere until the media grows a set of balls and pins him down with pointed questions.
Temi, I've only known this:
1. Vehicle is ordered.
2. Production # is supplied.
3. Vin is provided once the vehicle actually proceeds into production.
4. VIN stays with the vehicle from shipment from factory, to shipment to the country, Vehicle Prep Center, and finally the carrier.
Communicating a VIN by Tesla means nothing to me as I believe VINs have regularly changed. Why? I don't know. But my guess is it's all a sham.
Demand? For quite some time there has been little demand. That's why over 2,000 unsold vehicles were built in Q3-4, 2014. At this point I'm firmly convinced the bloom is off the rose and orders will continue to trickle in. 55,000 sales is a pipe dream. Just like profits are right around the corner.
Kbodie, what I find really, really amusing is how VINs have suddenly become some sort of measuring stick for sales/orders. Also, how some use VINs to determine shipments, etc.
Well, in the auto business, VINs have no use other than to gauge when a car is built and/or shipped! In all my years in the business, VINs have been tied directly to the pipeline of production AFTER the fact, not before or during it. I'm telling everyone here Tesla KNOWS this little game of intrigue diverts attention away from the reality of business by injecting mystery in production when there isn't any mystery.
This whole thing could easily be cleared up immediately IF Musk became transparent, which he will not. He has made what is a very small piece of the business, production, into this veiled, secretive Netherworld. It's not that difficult, Kbodie. I don't speak about thie hardly at all because I spent almost three years in the distribution departments of two different auto companies. And I swear to you it never once had mystery attached to the function.
The Bottom line here is EXACTLY what you said. Sales and profits IS the benchmark. Opining over VINs is a fool's game, IMO. While the end game of VINs does provide some vague direction, cracking the code, so to speak, is pretty petty. I say to stick with what the business is all about, profit/loss.
Farmer, I never said Musk couldn't raise money. YOU just said it!
I said, if you'd read it, the next raise or debt offering will be quite difficult for Musk. The handcuffs will be tight.
Really, don't you even in the slightest, see how Musk seems to have a history of breaking partnerships both personally and in business? I could provide a fairly long list. But if you're not at all open to what seems to be the obvious, then I don't need to mention it.
I'll just say this. The facts are there. The media is already questioning him. You seriously don't see this? I'm shocked!
Whoever said I was rich? I didn't.
US company? Well it IS in the US. 9 of the 10 top Tesla people weren't born here. And, I take it from your comments, you weren't either.
Say what you want about me, Butchy. Call me whatever. But you've already shown your colors here many times. I don't think anyone posting here would call you smart by any means. Unless #$%$ came after it!
Have a nice day, bloke!
Butchy, I don't invest in stocks. It's Las Vegas without the fun. You know, investing in stocks doesn't make you an expert in business as all you zealots think. You just don't realize you're involved in a rigged game.
You have no idea of my finances, Butchy. I've already earned more than you'll ever make in your life. And if you did know my finances, the very last thing you would say about me is I'm some sad crackpot. I can promise you that!
You're right! I did say that 3 years ago. I also said 3 years ago that after the first adopters, Tesla would have no sale infrastructure to increase sales in those markets afterwards.
So what happened, Campained? You tell me?
People are "starting to realize"? Butchy, consumers WILL/HAVE determined the worth of any product. Tesla is less than a pimple. The guy making all the decisions has no need for sales people because he doesn't understand them, nor accepts them. If you remember, he called his OWN Chinese sales force "brain dead". Yet, this guy spent zero dollars researching the Chinese market. Just like Singapore, Europe, and the US. It's a fatal character flaw he carries, IMO.
Be part of the gigafactory? Aside from Panasonic, which has a tenuous arm's length relationship, there are no other partners. Toyota's gone. Mercedes is gone. Why? My guess is neither of them saw Musk as a viable partner long term. BMW? Those folks didn't walk away. BMW RAN away!
Yep! You bet on a sure thing, Butchy. If it wasn't for the money-hungary Wall Street houses, Tesla would already be BK.
Butchy, you're correct about one thing, it's NOT about money. Without another debt raise or a miracle stock raise, Tesla will NOT have any money very soon. That's a fact!
What you need to have sinking into your thick head is to recognize Tesla builds a big ticket consumer durable. Amazon and Netflix DO NOT! Therefore, the enormous capital needed to expand much less the need to make money is crushing Tesla. If you don't understand this, you need to go back and repeat 7th grade.
b1tbyjill, a few weeks ago I supplied a breakdown of Tesla what i see as the Q1 losses. Some weeks before I mentioned that Tesla would be virtually out of money by the end of the year. I haven't changed my position.
That said, I just read an article stating Tesla has spent $34 million on the Gigafactory to date. The message I take away from it is Tesla is slow-walking the process. $34 million so far on a $5 billion investment? That makes no sense. Then again, Musk can't afford to stop work as certainly the vultures would be circling. Instead, he moves, IMO, at a snail's pace moving along.
IMO, people need to begin asking hard questions Musk needs to answer. Something's going on here and I'll wager Tesla is quickly running out of money and Musk can't find a partner to fund the cash needs. The minute a cash raise hits the wires, the terms will be onerous. Musk will have his hands tied even though he'll tout the move to raise cash as un-necessary.
There are probably 60-70 Tesla stores throughout the world. How many X demo vehicles do you think they will need? 3 per store? 5? Either way, if this is what you think will "disrupt the flow of 4dr VINS", you're sadly mistaken.
You folks REALLY don't know how small Tesla is, do you?
Tesla loves to disrupt speculation simply because, IMO, Musk refuses to address any news that can be marked as bad.
Donobrand, if one of the zealots answers you with the following: "Idiot", is that considered a true response? Or is it another indication of the brainpower you go up against with them?
If I responded, you should consider yourself lucky. It isn't often when clowns like you receive attention.
You hit the number on orders? Well, it's NOT orders. It's d-e-l-i-v-e-r-i-e-s.
I WAS a car dealer. So what? The numbers I have a handle on are the bottom line numbers. You want to challenge me on them? I was wrong about Q1. Since there is almost zero info coming from Tesla at any time, it's easier to hit the 4 digit daily lotto numbers.
You did your DD, you say? LOL! Did you rip up some grass and throw it into the wind to see which way it was blowing? Yep! You did DD, all right.
I made a mistake. I responded to you. Then again, i have a soft spot for children.
IMO, JMC, this will turn out in far less sales than the 4dr as Tesla made a big push to take order holders out of the X and into the 4dr towards the end of 2014.
The reservation number has always been nebulous with Tesla as it's impossible for any of those folks to be transparent.
A crossover can be a good thing for many auto companies as these sales are usually conquest an not cannibalization. i don't see it that way for Tesla. The X will take away from the 4dr. I simply don't see a whole other segment waiting in the wings. And as usual, the price point is definitely a major barrier.
20,000 orders for the X. Is that so? Phil, that's a fantasy. It's just like the "demand" for the 4dr was off the charts. You folks are continually being played by a guy quite adept at promising the world and filing you heads with idle chatter. The only benchmark is R-E-S-U-L-T-S. Nothing else matters. When will you finally allow it to sink in?
Dino, you simply lied to me. First you said I didn't answer. I did. You again said I didn't answer, so I re-posted the info. You said I couldn't be logical. I provided you logical questions and NOW your excuse is I'm a child? LOL! Dino, I've done more in my life than you'll ever do. I don't boast and then shy away. YOU do! Do yourself a favor. Don't ever respond to me. I don't speak to cowards nor play silly games with them. I'll leave the lies to you, pal.
You're ignoring me only because you can't answer me. Wouldn't it be better for you, as a man, to fess up? Or is this childish ploy of yours supposed to impress me, or wise me up?
After all, it was Y-O-U who initially said I wouldn't answer you properly. When I did (again), you immediately got real quiet. Dino, you're in way, way over your head. Thumping your chest is your only way to react. Once more, nice! Very adult of you.
Nice! Very adult of you, DIno. All bluster. No substance. So much for your self-proclaimed interest in engaging.
Don't ever again try to preach to me. Your words are shallow.
Dino, I have to ask. Are you enjoying your little avoidance game with me? Or are you so embarrassed that you have no answers, you don't know what to say?
Actually, I'm surprised you've become so silent.