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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

ballen2123 10 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 23, 2016 10:42 PM Member since: Aug 21, 2010
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  • Reply to

    The Padilla Clown

    by vascular08 Jan 23, 2016 5:36 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Jan 23, 2016 10:42 PM Flag

    That is what i'm thinking it will be resolved by Feb. 12. Prepa has the best deal they can get if the legislature doesn't pass the Prepa revitalization act that will stop investment into the new gas terminal and new gas power plants. Even if Prepa gets bankruptcy there is already a restructuring agreement on the table.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Padilla Clown

    by vascular08 Jan 23, 2016 5:36 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Jan 23, 2016 9:03 PM Flag

    A deadline is a deadline, the legislature is stalling they want bankruptcy but they will never get it maybe going forward but not on existing contracts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ballen2123 by ballen2123 Jan 23, 2016 11:54 AM Flag

    New stock buyback of a 100 million is the works as money is being moved to the holding company this month. Shares outstanding should be at 138 million next buyback could bring it down to 123 million.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Market Cap

    by vascular08 Dec 8, 2015 7:03 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Dec 8, 2015 9:24 PM Flag

    The total exposure across puerto rico is down to 3.865 billion after the 155 million cancellation from HTA and the 267 million payment from the GDB. If you use the 15% haircut that the adhoc group already agreed to and apply it to all of MBIA exposure in Puerto rico you come up with 580 million in losses That still leaves us with 3.2 billion in book value. The losses will come in at a lot less than that and mbia will probably end up insuring more bonds at a very profitable rate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey dell-stk!

    by fredmundi Dec 3, 2015 2:32 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Dec 5, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    Puerto rico will not need bankruptcy protection for prepa it needs it for all the other authorities Mbi is in the clear prepa deal goes through puerto rico needs the new power plants and the bond insurers are going to save prepa by providing the insurance on bonds needed to keep prepa's recovery going. Mbi exposure is down to roughly 550 million for HTA with only 11% due in the next 5 years. Prepa and GO are what matter for mbi. The governor is solving that problem by signing Puerto rico revitalization act just needs to pass legislature on Monday special session and the claw back of revenues to pay GO bonds.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Good news / Bad news

    by byebyecash Dec 3, 2015 12:40 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Dec 5, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    It looks like the governor is looking for the legislature to pass the Puerto rico revitalization act Monday. As long as no big changes are made the prepa deal will go through before Thursday. Puerto rico needs outside capital and without the monolines that is impossible.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SCOTUS will hear the PR restructuring law case.

    by byebyecash Dec 4, 2015 3:34 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Dec 4, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    I would agree dell if you look through the exposure over the next 5 years AGO is worse off by far in terms of possible losses because of the claw backs from various government agencies

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ballen2123 by ballen2123 Nov 22, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

    Top 30 holders hold 139.5 million shares and 7 million held by insiders as of September 30 Only 153 million outstanding and 13 million possibly bought back at 7 dollars a share things could get squeezed here soon with fewer and fewer holders Large put volume being bought as a hedge to long stock holdings as institutional investors bet on a spike in the price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Puerto Rico default

    by byebyecash Nov 13, 2015 11:44 AM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Nov 14, 2015 1:12 AM Flag

    Round that is fine but im not worried on transportation bonds page 15 shows that only 11.4% are coming due in the next five years and for the GDB bonds due december 1 Mbia exposure is 267 million but the payment due is 354 million like moodys stated GDB is likly to default on some of that Mbia is hold the more secure GO bonds They will pay the 267 and default on the rest

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Puerto Rico default

    by byebyecash Nov 13, 2015 11:44 AM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Nov 13, 2015 8:54 PM Flag

    900 million for highway bonds 300 million GDB bonds you might want to read the report on mbia's home page called puerto rico perspective has insured exposure accurate numbers

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

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