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Federated National Holding Company Message Board

ballen2123 208 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 23, 2016 10:42 PM Member since: Aug 21, 2010
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  • Reply to

    The Padilla Clown

    by vascular08 Jan 23, 2016 5:36 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Jan 23, 2016 10:42 PM Flag

    That is what i'm thinking it will be resolved by Feb. 12. Prepa has the best deal they can get if the legislature doesn't pass the Prepa revitalization act that will stop investment into the new gas terminal and new gas power plants. Even if Prepa gets bankruptcy there is already a restructuring agreement on the table.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    The Padilla Clown

    by vascular08 Jan 23, 2016 5:36 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Jan 23, 2016 9:03 PM Flag

    A deadline is a deadline, the legislature is stalling they want bankruptcy but they will never get it maybe going forward but not on existing contracts.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ballen2123 by ballen2123 Jan 23, 2016 11:54 AM Flag

    New stock buyback of a 100 million is the works as money is being moved to the holding company this month. Shares outstanding should be at 138 million next buyback could bring it down to 123 million.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Market Cap

    by vascular08 Dec 8, 2015 7:03 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Dec 8, 2015 9:24 PM Flag

    The total exposure across puerto rico is down to 3.865 billion after the 155 million cancellation from HTA and the 267 million payment from the GDB. If you use the 15% haircut that the adhoc group already agreed to and apply it to all of MBIA exposure in Puerto rico you come up with 580 million in losses That still leaves us with 3.2 billion in book value. The losses will come in at a lot less than that and mbia will probably end up insuring more bonds at a very profitable rate.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Hey dell-stk!

    by fredmundi Dec 3, 2015 2:32 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Dec 5, 2015 5:24 PM Flag

    Puerto rico will not need bankruptcy protection for prepa it needs it for all the other authorities Mbi is in the clear prepa deal goes through puerto rico needs the new power plants and the bond insurers are going to save prepa by providing the insurance on bonds needed to keep prepa's recovery going. Mbi exposure is down to roughly 550 million for HTA with only 11% due in the next 5 years. Prepa and GO are what matter for mbi. The governor is solving that problem by signing Puerto rico revitalization act just needs to pass legislature on Monday special session and the claw back of revenues to pay GO bonds.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Good news / Bad news

    by byebyecash Dec 3, 2015 12:40 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Dec 5, 2015 1:40 PM Flag

    It looks like the governor is looking for the legislature to pass the Puerto rico revitalization act Monday. As long as no big changes are made the prepa deal will go through before Thursday. Puerto rico needs outside capital and without the monolines that is impossible.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    SCOTUS will hear the PR restructuring law case.

    by byebyecash Dec 4, 2015 3:34 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Dec 4, 2015 4:10 PM Flag

    I would agree dell if you look through the exposure over the next 5 years AGO is worse off by far in terms of possible losses because of the claw backs from various government agencies

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ballen2123 by ballen2123 Nov 22, 2015 5:52 PM Flag

    Top 30 holders hold 139.5 million shares and 7 million held by insiders as of September 30 Only 153 million outstanding and 13 million possibly bought back at 7 dollars a share things could get squeezed here soon with fewer and fewer holders Large put volume being bought as a hedge to long stock holdings as institutional investors bet on a spike in the price.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Puerto Rico default

    by byebyecash Nov 13, 2015 11:44 AM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Nov 14, 2015 1:12 AM Flag

    Round that is fine but im not worried on transportation bonds page 15 shows that only 11.4% are coming due in the next five years and for the GDB bonds due december 1 Mbia exposure is 267 million but the payment due is 354 million like moodys stated GDB is likly to default on some of that Mbia is hold the more secure GO bonds They will pay the 267 and default on the rest

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Puerto Rico default

    by byebyecash Nov 13, 2015 11:44 AM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Nov 13, 2015 8:54 PM Flag

    900 million for highway bonds 300 million GDB bonds you might want to read the report on mbia's home page called puerto rico perspective has insured exposure accurate numbers

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Stock buyback?

    by ballen2123 Sep 12, 2015 1:33 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Oct 28, 2015 7:06 PM Flag

    Ok Moron Centrica once they finish this 100 million stock buyback they will issue another 100 million as more money gets moved from the tax escrow account in January to the holding company I know you can't do the math idiot

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • 22.3 million

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Stock buyback?

    by ballen2123 Sep 12, 2015 1:33 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Sep 15, 2015 7:54 PM Flag

    Is there a timeline or date on a resolution?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Stock buyback?

    by ballen2123 Sep 12, 2015 1:33 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Sep 15, 2015 5:03 PM Flag

    I would be shocked if they told me anything of substance.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ballen2123 by ballen2123 Sep 12, 2015 1:33 PM Flag

    Can management implement a 200 million stock buyback? At $7 it would buyback 28 million bring the share count down to 125 million this would be the best investment for management making book value increase to a level that would have to drive price. The management team stands to gain big. How can they come up with the capital to buyback the shares?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ballen2123 ballen2123 Sep 11, 2015 11:21 AM Flag

    Why haven't we seen a new buyback put in place?

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ballen2123 ballen2123 Sep 5, 2015 6:40 PM Flag

    I would have to agree tommiegun shorts are going to be in trouble as we break 8. I still think a new buyback needs to be put into place to really show investors that this management team is confident in the long term.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ballen2123 by ballen2123 Sep 2, 2015 4:21 PM Flag

    Can management come up with the cash to implement a new stock buyback? $100 million would be nice

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • ballen2123 by ballen2123 Aug 16, 2015 2:03 PM Flag

    Can the company come up with more cash to buy more shares back? Management owes it to long term investors after the years of bad buybacks. At these prices they need to have two missions expand national at good margin rates (wait for rate increase at fed level) and buying as much stock back as possible.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

  • Reply to

    Conflict of interst

    by ballen2123 Jul 26, 2015 4:20 PM
    ballen2123 ballen2123 Aug 2, 2015 8:00 PM Flag

    How can management stand back and do nothing to ensure shareholders of the kind of operation they are running here. I find it funny Warburg's proxy director leaves as they pull off a possible manipulation game on the price of the stock. Someones pockets are being filled full but its not the small time investor out there. Where is the SEC and the lawyers that could step in. My words to management is to stop the good old boy system and answer to all shareholders equally. The reason I say this is because the repurchase of the stock at 8.73 doesn't add up. Things could be on up and up and this is just market forces but the timing of share repurchases seems odd. I'm still long the stock but it seems there is something big being played out and I would warn brokers and short investors that a massive move in the stock price to the upside is very possible.

    Sentiment: Strong Buy

FNHC
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