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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Message Board

baltbear 44 posts  |  Last Activity: Dec 23, 2014 7:28 PM Member since: Apr 8, 2011
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  • Reply to

    No surprise

    by jetpro3 Dec 23, 2014 6:10 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Dec 23, 2014 7:28 PM Flag

    realtruf,
    Indded. An MM's chew toy. Total profits made off this dog exceed even the money it has lost--an amount clearly shown in the filings as "shareholder deficit."

  • Reply to

    BTX - Listen To The New Webcast

    by expstktrader Dec 22, 2014 4:00 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Dec 23, 2014 7:25 PM Flag

    mriucd,
    "being a 40 banger (which I still dont understand the meaning of) Less"
    If he has a net basis of 5/8, and selll @ 24, he will make "the trip to 40 bag city Arizona." It "tells" that he's beein in the game a while, and never really got the message.
    It's common at the angel i/b level to talk in terms of 5 or 10 bagger plus a ride.
    THat is, if I put $50K into X for 10% ownership, and after the enterprise actually ___does___ some dang thing that gives it higher enterprise "valuation", and so can sell 5% for $250-500K, then: target achieved. This is necessary because in the actual real world--not the one of stock board pumpers, smoke machines and koolade drinkers, a .100 batting average ain't bad at all. A .250 makes you a star.
    " trust me I work in medical field." So what? So do ever so many of the guys who say this dog cannot get to break even anytime in the next decade.
    And they've been right since 1992.

  • Reply to

    IBM investment

    by tomandjanewright Dec 23, 2014 11:01 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Dec 23, 2014 7:14 PM Flag

    jad1148m
    If gragging were the point, HC would own WallSt. If locking in a piece of of 4 or 5 possible future economies can be done while yeilding better than the overnite rate, then imho, an actual capitalist will jump on it.
    "Opportunity cost" is a head game for the shouldawouldacoulda crowd, to whom the answer is always, "If dog--rabbit."

  • Reply to

    BTX - Listen To The New Webcast

    by expstktrader Dec 22, 2014 4:00 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Dec 22, 2014 6:03 PM Flag

    "So whatever BioTime succeeds at in 2015, it won’t have to give it up 17 years later to a small generic drug manufacturer in India." is false.
    If Mikey said it, it's the 2nd generation of BTX C-suite lying to pump the price. If he didn't, its the same old pumper smoke and piffle.

  • Reply to

    BTX has 5,500,000 shares Short

    by expstktrader Dec 19, 2014 1:17 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Dec 20, 2014 5:34 PM Flag

    realtruf,
    There IS a product, clearly stated in the filings since 1992, over and over again:
    Treasury stock.
    That's what's for sale. Not "science" the "future" or stem cells..
    Revenue from that T-stock funds ongoing operations, which are the creation of new ways to sell T-stock.

  • Reply to

    BTX has 5,500,000 shares Short

    by expstktrader Dec 19, 2014 1:17 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Dec 19, 2014 7:24 PM Flag

    jetpro,
    " Either I'm smarter than just about everyone or we're missing something. History suggests something's missing."
    Actually, it's the balance sheet.
    And the dilution from 22 mm to 55mm--with that 22 being the only way out of closing the doors.
    Show me ANY ticker that increases its o/s and its losses per share on a consistent basis, and I'll point to the source of the shorts' confidence.
    The thing is--professionally (and this is the thing that shafted you, and that now koolade drinker who came in at 4 3/8 and many,many others) BTX common stock has NOTHING AT ALL to do with "stem cells."
    The common is a 4th level claim to assets. It's not "science", it's not "i/p." It's a 4th level claim to the CASH value of the assets.
    All the rest is just the playing of the game--a game in which serious pros will always eat retail cannon fodder.

  • Reply to

    check the largest holders of BTX

    by my_honest_opinion Dec 18, 2014 9:45 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Dec 18, 2014 8:24 PM Flag

    OR--read the actual filings since 2006, and calculate the net basis of the adds.
    Then trade to a comparable net basis--or learn to enjoy being retail road kill.

  • Reply to

    BTX history

    by ixamxkevin Dec 15, 2014 4:42 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Dec 16, 2014 9:25 PM Flag

    soulcompass,
    Long time no see. Trust you have been well and prosperous.
    "BTX will create many millionaires, too bad they will all be management." Lots of them will be traders and shills like Jono Steinberg and Mauldin.
    Several will be the guys ownoing the houses that clear the churn, and pocket the vig on long for later delivery, being able to hypothecate all anybody wants ..like the Garfies.
    All of which will continue to be paid to them by retail cannon fodder.

  • Reply to

    BTX history

    by ixamxkevin Dec 15, 2014 4:42 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Dec 16, 2014 6:18 PM Flag

    none that are at attractive levels, and none which ethics would let me suggest to someone who doesn;t play this game for a living.
    If you are dead set on adding some "health care", look for an ETF
    Laws of a baltbear: ( this one vikinged from Peter Lynch) Don't buy what you don't know.

  • Reply to

    BTX history

    by ixamxkevin Dec 15, 2014 4:42 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Dec 15, 2014 8:38 PM Flag

    ixamxkevin,
    You are missing most of the damage, It was around $75 with 3 million o/s. Now is 3 with over 50mm o/s.
    One reason: No revenue.
    Next reason: lack of transparency about revenue potential.
    Main one: endless burn, with revenues that after 6 years of a restructured co are almost equal to payroll..but rent, R&D, etc are paid for by maintaining dilution.
    Best reason? No real end in sight to this pattern.
    (Watch how the pumpers start spewing piffle about "any day now" and "million$ and million$.)

  • Reply to

    Warrens railroad about to implode

    by sage533 Nov 28, 2014 10:35 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Nov 28, 2014 8:44 PM Flag

    Fourth,
    When did BNSF start pricing its services based on the price of the cargo?
    That is, what's the price at which Bakken is not worth pumping?

  • Reply to

    Why I dont want a Berkshire dividend

    by tomandjanewright Nov 23, 2014 8:52 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Nov 25, 2014 8:26 PM Flag

    WHY WHY WHY limit it to WB? Those dead birds at the solar plant may know more ab out IBM 5 years out than HC....

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Nov 25, 2014 8:22 PM Flag

    syz,
    "Projects" and experiments never fail--although they frequently correct the hubris of their managers.
    "YOu could say the same thing about technologies developed for" undoing willful stupidity; then use HC as the gauge....

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Nov 25, 2014 8:19 PM Flag

    HC,
    "ibd, another waste of $$$$$$$$ ?" Yes. It has been since around 1998. The only things that are bigger wastes are Barron's and Forbes--if you're limiting it to print.

  • Reply to

    jad, your kind of ibm,

    by hjclasvegas6969 Nov 21, 2014 7:09 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Nov 22, 2014 8:35 PM Flag

    At which point it would be attractive to investors..who are NOT traders, even if they have 5 year holds.
    Here's a fun question for you (and jad) Counting cash flow to come from signed contracts, but not allowing any "good will" or other horse hockey that can;t stand on an auction block, what's 1x BOOK?

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Nov 20, 2014 10:05 PM Flag

    HC,
    It's exactly as I said here back around 2010...Have the stones to fill in the quote:
    "The logic is simple: If you are going to be a net buyer of stocks in the future, either directly with your own money or indirectly (through your ownership of a company that is repurchasing shares), you are hurt when stocks
    rise."
    Getting that reality out there will of course, damage tonnes of retail commish brokers and RIAs. Good. F*em.
    F*em with some Burlington rolling stock.

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Nov 17, 2014 6:01 PM Flag

    hummingbird,
    They don;t have to move much to put pressure on Russia. As usual, Wall St is trading Main St. blood for continued chances to create beta to trade on.

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Nov 13, 2014 8:41 PM Flag

    syz,
    The Saudis have a "balanced budget" @ $85 oil. A failing recall suggests Russia needs ~ $97, and Putin is in enough of a hole to be trading oil to China for much less in order to sustain the illusion of a "growth economy."
    To me, it's a good time to cut USA production so that Venezuela can pump itself into total collapse; and and inflation adjust Federal fuel tax to what built the interstates--1/8 the price of a pack of Camels.

  • Reply to

    acquiring Duracell from P&G

    by dickeypiper1 Nov 13, 2014 7:59 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Nov 13, 2014 6:08 PM Flag

    HC,
    I recall WB talking about why he owned Gillette, back before it made the Duracell purchase, as being an essentially WB kind of play: high value add to the raw materials, no alternatives for customers, and a retail price point that guaranteed continual sales---same principal that made MCD and DQ. attractive. Given that there are reports about the USA facing a critical wall-plug shortage, the mkt for "high end" batteries of any kind is secure for a generation or more.
    OT--I see that the idiots who gutted the Sahara are now tripping over their own c****. $52 for a buffet and they expect the locals to show up? Rotfl...

  • Reply to

    Pretty pricey right now

    by analyst112 Nov 6, 2014 1:32 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Nov 6, 2014 10:06 PM Flag

    Amen. ....and amen. Anything over what the sheriff would get for it at auction is wishful thinking.
    Take a look at Business Week showing 6,000 real estate parcels @ the same clear as 1 original SuperMan comic: "surprise bid for a blighted slice of Detroit" (p.40 in print).
    Same principal as created the hilarious results from the most recent stress tests of Euro banks.

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