..And good time of year wishes to you and yours as well.
The actual issue is that "value" is always __assigned___ --and that's why it can't be intrinsic. WB touches on some of that in the essay you cited.
Hypothetical: someone comes to you with a 1 in 10 chance at a twenty bagger. Given your stated risk tolerance, you are likely to place a value on the offer of near 0. Make the same offer to me, and depending on the sector and project I mayplace a time value on it--"Tell me more" and may get bat****crazy doing dd--cause if my speculation repositions it as 1 in 9 chance for a 30 bagger, I'm likely to be all over it. That makes neither me nor you "right"--but it does set up the creation of a market.
WB in the cited piece does a good job of explaining the filters by which he does his speculating, and his filings demonstrate how well they work--including his "unforced errors."
Sean thus far appears to be attempting to learn the difference between the koolade and the coke, which is always worthwhile, and the best vaccination against road kill disease.
Since rule #1 is "Don't outlive your money" your methods appear to give behaviour consistent with the rule, at some cost. Axp--another intelligent poster, seems to use different speculative tools to give good results.
Mine work as well, but require a certain Maslow hierarchy place where "risk tolerance" is less an issue than actual reality checks, the kind that make "seems like a fair price" the mutterings of a Voldemor.
"Why is anything anything?" Because seen clearly it's a way to turn a few bux....either by learning the game or by being a welfare queen.
Evidently not. Mikey runs that rag, and thus it is not a "peer reviewed" paper. The only word of importance is "novel" so that Mikey can attempt to patent the cell type---that is, own your body. Such thoughts are increasingly recognised in the EEU and the USA as the ravings of fascists.
"Negotiated value represents hopes and fears and intrinsic value – admittedly, no one is going to know it precisely."
Bull. It's printed on the tape. The rest of it i9s voodoo.
think that shareholders would be aided by buybacks at 1.3x book value" Yeah---but so what?
They would be helped by flying monkeys filling their pockets with winning lottery tickets as well.
That is, you are falling for one of HC's roadgames--that WB plays for you instead of WB.
$1 by any measure only ever equals $1 by that measure. There is no such thing as "market value"--only mkt cap. If you make an estimate that somebody else can be conned into thinking is "reasonable" you will at some point be able to sell to that person.
That is, once you realise that there is no such thing as intrinsic value, then realise it, that is, make it real--ACT like it.
For starters, compare how book is measured at BRK vs IBM.
Then perhaps, come to terms with the idea that the only REAL "book value" is what goes under the hammer at a sheriff's auction--everything else is "animal spirits."
At that point, virtually all the ^rua , let alone the S&P, is going to look scarily overpriced by any measure other than "greater fool." Once that happens, you're ready to actually play this game at the pro level.
So--you are saying WB either can't do arithmetic or that he pays no taxes.
Which falsehood are you gonna run with?
So--you want WB to buy a $ for $1.30--and you think that's "good."
Did you graduate from welfare queen school cum laude?
Nothing "sad" about it. Maybe a reason to recall the honesty of the sainted Benjamin Seigel, and his banker associate Meyer, from back before becoming a welfare queen parasite became the American Dream.
Nothing wrong with JPM that they wouldn't be able to fix over a weekend or two.
Using HC's reasoning, it's obviously because it's reflecting the colour of the ocean, minus a 1% div.
The ocean is blue because its reflecting the light of the sky, plus the put option.
"then in the US(after 6 mo evaluation) mid 2014. "
ROTFL.... Now that you have proven you know nothing about how the FDA works, proceed to the amusing issue--1/2 the companies in that space wiped pout shareholders before getting widely used.
Take too much Viagra? One thing has nothing to do with the other. So WB bought some IBM...and now he's pumping it, and not whining about how doomed it is...So what?
Bottom line, lots of guys cash in their options and sell enough to pay the taxes to retail guys who listen to the pumping, and "follow Buffet" into buying at some multiple of what he paid.
Go back to sniffing dancing girls. You make more sense that way.
The Feds had Cramer on numerous counts of everything from front running to lying to the SEC back in 99 and Y2K, and basically figured it made more sense to make sure he could keep skullph***ing retail
He's very helpful to those actually in the game.
You must be doing pm's with missed. You are lost in your Weiner pix again. What's the vol every day since WB started buying? What per cent of that total represents BRK? Then that's how much the "inside team" is cashing in options to sell to BRK.
The rest is either being held or being traded to retail for cash.
In the meantime, whatever retail isn't sucking up is transferring ownership of IBM to a smaller and select group,
If they are doing it correctly, retail --which in this case includes all the mutual funds, etc holding the bag--are paying the freight for the move.
WB can see ahead better than the gameboys here who only care about tipping the dancing girls while IBM executes the shift to the next area of economic activity where it can be a critical part of the chain and WB can skim it like he's always done.
" 21% verses 28% for the S&P 500, so yes I'm having a bad year. "
Only in comparison to pedestrians getting set up to be road kill.
Or in the opinion of punks.
20% year over year is master class territory.
About halfway right...Notice how many here are complaining it's not as overpriced as other stuff?
Take the hint: Such people are not on your side.
You're 1/2 right--that is to say, you are still operating under the welfare queen delusion that you matter except as retail cannon fodder.
Take your hypothetical: Yes, as long as you can keep cashing in options because retail keeps sending you money, you get a free ride. The problem is you not being among the chose3n few and still expecting to get a ride.
So, really--what are you doing to deserve a reach around?