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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Message Board

baltbear 48 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 29, 2015 7:43 PM Member since: Apr 8, 2011
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  • Reply to

    BTX history

    by ixamxkevin Dec 15, 2014 4:42 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Dec 15, 2014 8:38 PM Flag

    ixamxkevin,
    You are missing most of the damage, It was around $75 with 3 million o/s. Now is 3 with over 50mm o/s.
    One reason: No revenue.
    Next reason: lack of transparency about revenue potential.
    Main one: endless burn, with revenues that after 6 years of a restructured co are almost equal to payroll..but rent, R&D, etc are paid for by maintaining dilution.
    Best reason? No real end in sight to this pattern.
    (Watch how the pumpers start spewing piffle about "any day now" and "million$ and million$.)

  • Reply to

    Interesting pipeline / outlook 2015

    by alfamia79 Jan 1, 2015 5:50 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jan 1, 2015 6:37 PM Flag

    alfamia,
    You are the first "newbie" here is a long time to ask the equity oriented questions instead of falling for the sales pitch.
    For 2015 dilution is probably off the table; but likely will be a big item in late 2016. Note the increase in o/s over the past 4 years, let alone over the life of the company--from 3mm to 55+mm.
    Chart the rate of revenue growth--after first subtracting "grant money" since 2010, and you see a slowing of growth. I'd put future growth in revs over COG at 20-25% for a long time to come. That sounds great--until you see that under such a rate even making payroll is a few years away, let alone covering capex, operaticons and R&D--and this dog holds itself out as an R&D company.
    Ignore all the pumpers and the lying #$%$ who tell people to buy&hold while they trade in and out. Figure out how to trade the pumps and dumps by reading the filings, and you can end up with stock at a reasonable basis--which is, like any other stock, some low multiple of book, or a reasonable multiple of sales.
    And remember tat all times that BTX has been and always will be a specialists chew toy--not an "investment.:

  • Reply to

    Fresh New IBM Year Low

    by not_toddy Nov 6, 2014 11:26 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Nov 6, 2014 6:25 PM Flag

    Reducing the population raises the utility of buybacks. After enough people are dead, the exchanges can just keep track of the buybacks.
    Tobacco companies help maintain the stability of SocialSecurity and Medicare actuarial tables, and so must be good for "the economy."

  • Reply to

    Life Map-

    by mriucd Dec 28, 2014 11:50 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jan 3, 2015 7:02 PM Flag

    wall,
    So you are saying that BTX rallies from insider trading? Yeah, it's done that several times. That's when the specialists short, as well. And then cover when the cronies trade out to retail.

  • Reply to

    Shorts Are Covering Slowly As You Can See

    by short_buster Jan 2, 2015 3:22 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jan 2, 2015 8:28 PM Flag

    shortbuster,
    Hi there lying punk with nothing to actually say. You sre doing an excellent job of showing this dog as a specialists' chew toy--not an investment.

  • Reply to

    check the largest holders of BTX

    by my_honest_opinion Dec 18, 2014 9:45 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Dec 18, 2014 8:24 PM Flag

    OR--read the actual filings since 2006, and calculate the net basis of the adds.
    Then trade to a comparable net basis--or learn to enjoy being retail road kill.

  • Reply to

    BTX - Listen To The New Webcast

    by expstktrader Dec 22, 2014 4:00 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Dec 22, 2014 6:03 PM Flag

    "So whatever BioTime succeeds at in 2015, it won’t have to give it up 17 years later to a small generic drug manufacturer in India." is false.
    If Mikey said it, it's the 2nd generation of BTX C-suite lying to pump the price. If he didn't, its the same old pumper smoke and piffle.

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Dec 27, 2014 7:00 PM Flag

    realtruf,
    Nope. That was predictable and boring. I'd say the last interesting thing started was when Mikey spent $3/4 million buying a seat license to the EEU catalog of genes, enzymes, yadydyda, and then spent anotheer few million reverse engineering it, to no output--and now to re-engineer it again as a smart phone app to speed up people bypassing standard catalogs (to which BTX pays 50% commish) and buying their picks&shovels direct from BTX.
    If it adds $1mm a year to gross, in only 6-7 years BTX will be at break-even on the effort.
    One of their most notable successes.

  • Reply to

    Why I dont want a Berkshire dividend

    by tomandjanewright Nov 23, 2014 8:52 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Nov 25, 2014 8:26 PM Flag

    WHY WHY WHY limit it to WB? Those dead birds at the solar plant may know more ab out IBM 5 years out than HC....

  • Reply to

    BTX history

    by ixamxkevin Dec 15, 2014 4:42 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Dec 16, 2014 6:18 PM Flag

    none that are at attractive levels, and none which ethics would let me suggest to someone who doesn;t play this game for a living.
    If you are dead set on adding some "health care", look for an ETF
    Laws of a baltbear: ( this one vikinged from Peter Lynch) Don't buy what you don't know.

  • Reply to

    Adi Mohanty Chief Operating Officer

    by mriucd Dec 29, 2014 10:05 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Dec 29, 2014 7:10 PM Flag

    mriucd,
    "from 60 to 200 in 5 years. " Which was __what__ as eps, book, gross revs per share, ebirda per share?
    Since all of those except one are ZERO for BTX, and look to remain so for another 5 years minimum, what can he actually do?

  • Reply to

    From stocktwits on Btx

    by wallstreetguys Jan 2, 2015 2:40 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jan 2, 2015 8:35 PM Flag

    mriucd,
    It basically means that equity industry professionals who have watched this stock since 2008 have made reasonable bets that the company will have to keep printing shares, diluting the worth of any existing shares--no matter how "press" the pumpers generate. By the way, feel free to laugh at anything that sounds like what the newly arrived "short-buster" is mumbling about. It's a left over script from the 90s.
    The only way to ACTUALLY clean the short iinterest out of a ticker is for the company to start showing net revenues above payroll.
    Professionals know that all the talk about "billions" means nothing at all.
    As a result whenever a pump like this one gets any momentum to it, these #$%$suckers who think shorting is ethical just sell the newbies stock that doesn't actually exist. When the rally fails, the same #$%$ buy stock to replace the fictional stock.

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jan 6, 2015 5:21 PM Flag

    msft,
    Since you made the decision as to how to name the thread, you are now identifying yourself as a pumper fanboy with no information on the fundamentals, the filings, the tape, etc."
    See how easy it is to identify brainless pumpers? They always refuse to use verfiable numbers, and go straigtht for ad hom nonsense.

  • Reply to

    nice

    by mriucd Jan 15, 2015 11:36 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jan 15, 2015 5:48 PM Flag

    shant,
    Becuase they are not very liquid---and all those constant permalong posts from heads, msft, etc are part of their trading strategy while they tell everyone else to hold still.

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jan 27, 2015 5:21 PM Flag

    Investors and traders will note this is a lease of a patent from an outside source, and firms ion Europe are already using it.

  • Reply to

    Shorts

    by short_buster Jan 12, 2015 7:57 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jan 13, 2015 6:08 PM Flag

    ROTFL.....
    So--1.3mm shares of the "rally" was year-end short covering for tax purposes?
    If you, those same house will be back any day now to take another ride.
    More money has been made by trading this dog than will ever be made by it.
    " the problem is that you have a significant amount of shares to cover." Nope. The "problem" is that BTX has significant ground to cover on growing revs before it even covers payroll. Until that's done, dilution is a given, and shorts have room to play.

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Nov 25, 2014 8:19 PM Flag

    HC,
    "ibd, another waste of $$$$$$$$ ?" Yes. It has been since around 1998. The only things that are bigger wastes are Barron's and Forbes--if you're limiting it to print.

  • Reply to

    jad, your kind of ibm,

    by hjclasvegas6969 Nov 21, 2014 7:09 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Nov 22, 2014 8:35 PM Flag

    At which point it would be attractive to investors..who are NOT traders, even if they have 5 year holds.
    Here's a fun question for you (and jad) Counting cash flow to come from signed contracts, but not allowing any "good will" or other horse hockey that can;t stand on an auction block, what's 1x BOOK?

  • Reply to

    acquiring Duracell from P&G

    by dickeypiper1 Nov 13, 2014 7:59 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Nov 13, 2014 6:08 PM Flag

    HC,
    I recall WB talking about why he owned Gillette, back before it made the Duracell purchase, as being an essentially WB kind of play: high value add to the raw materials, no alternatives for customers, and a retail price point that guaranteed continual sales---same principal that made MCD and DQ. attractive. Given that there are reports about the USA facing a critical wall-plug shortage, the mkt for "high end" batteries of any kind is secure for a generation or more.
    OT--I see that the idiots who gutted the Sahara are now tripping over their own c****. $52 for a buffet and they expect the locals to show up? Rotfl...

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Nov 13, 2014 8:41 PM Flag

    syz,
    The Saudis have a "balanced budget" @ $85 oil. A failing recall suggests Russia needs ~ $97, and Putin is in enough of a hole to be trading oil to China for much less in order to sustain the illusion of a "growth economy."
    To me, it's a good time to cut USA production so that Venezuela can pump itself into total collapse; and and inflation adjust Federal fuel tax to what built the interstates--1/8 the price of a pack of Camels.

BRK-B
143.91-2.3800(-1.63%)Jan 30 4:01 PMEST

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