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BioTime, Inc. Message Board

baltbear 100 posts  |  Last Activity: 10 minutes ago Member since: Apr 8, 2011
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  • Reply to

    How is it possible

    by jetpro3 1 hour 38 minutes ago
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear 10 minutes ago Flag

    jetpro,
    Someone who search "story stock" and "baltbear" would find the evidence that you are approaching something.
    There is a "story" here. That's what there is. Nothing else, except a specialist's chew toy.
    But yeah....buying NFLX late in 2012, along with the gut checks, double downs and trading into accumulation was an excellent case of understanding the story of a stock--which is different than a story stock.
    Back at the time I told peopke here to look closely at NOK--where my average client ended up with 4k shares at --0-- basis, AND better than 20% APR on risk capital.

  • Reply to

    Bakken oil by rail

    by geepod2 Jul 21, 2014 12:05 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 23, 2014 5:53 PM Flag

    geepod2,
    OOOOOO.. An actual investing question, and not whywhywhy divs, buybbacks, rat's rumpos and financiual games.
    Easy guess---when BNSF's insurer drops it. Probably not before.

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 23, 2014 5:50 PM Flag

    HC,
    The idea of having to listen to that goniff for 24 minutes is wayyy too much.
    Is there a transcription somewhere, so I can print it out--so that I can roll it into a cone and have a barf bag if I need it?

  • Reply to

    Tuesday 'news day'

    by btimnextmicrosoft Mar 18, 2013 12:35 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 23, 2014 4:14 PM Flag

    since clone has admitted in the past to trading in and out, just like the cronies do, and ips and msft run in a pack with him--they are likely all drones for some bucket shop tied to insiders.

  • Reply to

    Asterias AHRBV changed to ASTYV

    by wallstreetwarrior Jul 22, 2014 11:24 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 22, 2014 4:59 PM Flag

    Excellent. Finally old clients can get it out of their portfolios.

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 22, 2014 4:57 PM Flag

    MSFT,
    Read the CIRM proposal. It's based on GERN's report of "no harmful side effects--and no benefits."
    CArtilege and bone have nothing at all to do with nerve cells.
    Congratulations on demonstrating once again what a compleat idiot you think readers here are.

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 21, 2014 9:17 PM Flag

    jmil2,
    Yup. Why? Becuase the initial dose did nothing. Since the nothing included "nothing negative" its getting doubled. As well as the injection site getting moved, on the off chance that might make a difference.
    Now: subtract the amount of cash on hand or committed that MUST be spent on this exercise, and how much is left? Maybe enoughto put off the next round of dilution til q3 of 15.

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 20, 2014 8:19 PM Flag

    boosk,
    And there's the point. BTX gets nothing, except further behind.

  • Reply to

    OT - GMO

    by jad1148 Jul 18, 2014 7:12 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 20, 2014 5:36 PM Flag

    mv,
    Excellent but meaningless question--until the range of factors is named.
    Example? What correction would,be required to account for George Washington being in the top 100 or so of wealthy Americans, but not have "indoor plumbing" or a VCR?
    "Dollars"-- like anything else, are never more than nominal.
    On the other hand--as jad often seems to note--quite often something that seems out of line when viewed with an older model does point to errors in newer methodologies. And that then becomes the bet that creates the 2 sides on any trade.

  • Reply to

    The Coveted "Most Senile" Award

    by rigid_rod_of_reality Jul 19, 2014 10:08 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 20, 2014 5:28 PM Flag

    rigid,
    NOK? More/less same way as always...tonnes of dd. Along with a version of law of a baltbear vikinged from WB and Peter Lynch--if you don;t understand it, don;t own it.
    Getting clients into BAC at at net basis of ~2 was the same kind of thing. Along with "bad call" of "chasing yield" and writing covered 10s, instead of waiting for 15---since my calculations showed no way for BAC to hit 15 til about 2016. That got smacked down by "big banks" skull-ph***ing the Feds.
    I woof at HC for continually inventing single point scenarios left over from 1972 to no real end other than getting the chance to say "shameful" about whoever / whatever played the game better than he does.
    Typical of dropouts everywhere--and he is, by his own admission, a '92 dropout.
    I didn't dropout until succession plan satisfied me, AND I had to admit being too slow mentally to play FB at all.
    You and I both understand that much of this stuff bases in a priori--like 22.5 or "inverse of the long". My pov has always been that all those axioms are nonsense--but when they are widely adopted they move the tape.
    HC pretends that whatever he got taught in 1970 is "natural law." I got taught that the only "natural law" was what took out Ira Haupt, letting WB make his bones on American Express.

  • Reply to

    The Coveted "Most Senile" Award

    by rigid_rod_of_reality Jul 19, 2014 10:08 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 19, 2014 9:11 PM Flag

    rigid,
    Thumbs up. Good to see you about. I'm enjoying your comments in re methodology on another thread.
    the yelling is me attempting to explain to HC how a successful succession plan beats his dancing-girl fueled visions of a welfare state for the likes of him and his.

  • Reply to

    OT - GMO

    by jad1148 Jul 18, 2014 7:12 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 19, 2014 9:05 PM Flag

    mv,
    "I have not found any favorable deals in quite some time." is a lot more true than when/if "bubble." and applies to way more than puts.
    Either way, "long period of dead money" seems highly likely--except for carefully dd'd individual stocks and private placements.

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 19, 2014 8:54 PM Flag

    HC,
    He forgot reason #1 to dump an advisor: If he's commission based.
    #2. If his fee structure is not utterly transparent.
    Somewhere around #4 oughta be if he follows more than one of : Barron's, Forbes, Morning Joe, Maria-baby, Cramer, or..... (additions to this list welcome.)

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 18, 2014 10:24 PM Flag

    luckypenny246,
    And from the "no spending" will come "no revenue." Why would Asterias deliver votable shares to retail cannon fodder before the insiders have their cut of the pie, and before it needs another tranche to dilution to be fronted by Cox/Agora et al?
    "Under the terms of the settlement and license agreement, the parties will each receive a non-exclusive, worldwide, royalty-free, fully paid-up, license to use certain patents for any internal research and development purpose but only to the extent necessary to allow the licensee to make, use, sell, offer for sale, or import endodermal lineage cells for use with its products and/or product candidates."
    That is, it doesn;t matter one dang bit to BTX shareholders that Viacyte filed for anything....until well after a successful phase I,II period, at which point BTX will launch yet another "me, too" product.
    So far as Viacyte being a JNJ development corporation---not so much. JNJ is a shareholder, especially when CA taxpayers subsidise it.
    " announced today that it completed a private equity financing transaction, providing the Company $10.6 million through the sale of Series C-1 Preferred Stock, together with warrants to purchase stock. The financing, conducted as a rights offering to ViaCyte Series B and C Preferred Stock holders, included the Company's largest existing investors - Johnson & Johnson Development Corporation, Sanderling Ventures and Asset Management Company (Johnson Trust).

    This funding serves as a match for a $10.1 million Strategic Partnership Award (SPA) that was approved last October by the California Institute for Regenerative Medicine (CIRM) to support clinical evaluation of VC-01, "

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 18, 2014 6:52 PM Flag

    syz,
    "Sometimes it works." Yeah.. but most of the time is provides exercises in the gamblers' fallacy, known in the industry as the recipe for making retail road kill.
    I also see that 33% idea as an example of road kill thinking. Nothing wrong with 75% of BASIS so long as basis is way below present tape.

  • Reply to

    bottoms in, nothing but blue skies

    by baltbearfinance Jul 18, 2014 2:38 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 18, 2014 6:47 PM Flag

    jetpro,
    Nope ---that was 2012.
    Currently 2015 is scheduled to be the year when the next major round of dilution happens.
    Anyone needing any proof of this only needs to look at how Mikey demanded his options be priced going out...

  • Reply to

    Pump and Dump

    by _mr_howell Jul 17, 2014 2:27 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 18, 2014 3:10 PM Flag

    Mauldin describes himself as a "serial entrepreneur." Having seen his work, I put him in the same class as BTX insiders and cronies ---he works for himself and nobody else.

  • Reply to

    Viacyte filed an IND for type 1 diabetes

    by luckypenny246 Jul 17, 2014 4:48 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 18, 2014 3:04 PM Flag

    Excellent. So? What's the cost, and time to completion?/
    Otherwise it's just another press release.
    Especially without the FDA response.

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 17, 2014 9:40 PM Flag

    taz,
    "allow them to persue this IND." Yup. NOT "file an IND."
    Good to see you about.
    Next question: how much spending between today and an actual IND?
    Coming from what cash on hand not contractually obligated to something else?
    And only then onto what is the actual JNJ contract? When does it put $1k positive to BTX?
    And from there, back to today's volume and direction of the tape.

  • Reply to

    Bankruptcy

    by aa112233 Jul 17, 2014 2:00 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 17, 2014 6:01 PM Flag

    aa,
    Because none of it is "news" to any one in biotech, and none of it has any content to anyone in finance and equities.
    Bottom line is that any pro knows that BTX has said nothing since 2008 that will convert to $1k over COG and G&A within 5 years. And as of this week, it's still doing that. Since even "Four more years" is going to double the o/s, or doors close. it can be ignored or shorted at will. It's an MM'c chew toy. No more; no less.

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