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Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Message Board

baltbear 4800 posts  |  Last Activity: Jul 12, 2014 5:53 PM Member since: Apr 8, 2011
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  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 12, 2014 5:53 PM Flag

    jmil2,
    REfuse???? rotfl......Since your arrival you have insisted on learning nothing, and think that is the magic formula for getting others to be as stupid as you are becoming.
    So: DO tell everyone all about Pancdx: how much of your money will be spent before it brings in $1k of gross?
    This is NOT a high school science fair--it's a 4th level claim to assets. No assets? No price.

  • Reply to

    Btx under $4 is a steal

    by btimnextmicrosoft Jul 9, 2014 8:18 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 10, 2014 5:35 PM Flag

    BTX is paying all of the above except CIRM. CIRM is NOT a "stem cell instiution"--it's a taxpayer funded EDC that subsidises the CA real estate and University industries. And it's recent spend with BTX got a barely passing score for being of any use to anybody except landlords.

  • Reply to

    Target-Date Funds Take Over, barrons cover

    by hjclasvegas6969 Jul 7, 2014 8:00 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 10, 2014 5:23 PM Flag

    jad,
    This is where I always go back to net basis. Somebody inflates the clearing price by demanding that their cash go chase yeild, and when interest rates begin to head back towards a 100 year average, they cash out and go there. Bidding up the price does nothing to hurt the yield of somebody in at a lower basis. In fact, when I was actively in the game, games of cash flow created the beta that was the platform for lowering net basis for any given ticker.
    What happens to the 15 year yield for somebody who bought a puppy showing a 3% div--and then takes a standard 20% bear discount on the clearing price--that recovers at the rate of inflation?
    To me, the whole S&P is approaching that kind of problem, which resolves as "dead money."

  • Reply to

    Target-Date Funds Take Over, barrons cover

    by hjclasvegas6969 Jul 7, 2014 8:00 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 8, 2014 7:17 PM Flag

    syz,
    You know best what you think is overweight. And at current prices, I don;t see any real "boys" out there--anywhere. Note I suggested to HC that he dd some REIT ETFs, of which I think there are a few. And specifically in the context of not being 100% in SPY.
    As evidenced by HC's reply to me, his brain burped somewhere around the place he should have noted that 100% in on "the market" means 0 alpha; and at present lofty multiples on dang near every metric, no room for advances other than on broad cash inflow from other dart throwers.
    BTW, my own reading tells me that this is true in spades on utilities other than water. So, if you feel like it, you may wish to do a little trimming there as well.

  • Reply to

    Target-Date Funds Take Over, barrons cover

    by hjclasvegas6969 Jul 7, 2014 8:00 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 8, 2014 7:11 PM Flag

    HC,
    So because WB is getting old, your grandkids are all in on the SPY? Perfect non-sequitur. You sound like a retail broker.
    KO has zilch to do with your "strategy" in re 401k and 529.
    So, since you are all so educated on how the SPY can be gamed, and whine about it regularly, your "Go Bogle" response of not finding some tickers that stand under f/a and real dd is more pathetic than WB--since mostly he is running so much money he can;t keep track of it--but doesn;t care, because he's playing his game, not yours.

  • Reply to

    West should be ashamed

    by jetpro3 Jul 8, 2014 4:42 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 8, 2014 7:03 PM Flag

    jetpro, No wealth was destroyed. It was transferred from the government and retail cannon fodder to traders and specialists...and insiders and their cronies.
    In the meantime, a small stock of now highschool level i/p is getting organised and utilised, to pay back the taxpayers.

  • Reply to

    Target-Date Funds Take Over, barrons cover

    by hjclasvegas6969 Jul 7, 2014 8:00 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 7, 2014 5:46 PM Flag

    HC,
    ANY "All in" fails an aggression test. The proper measure is the retail road kill test. In this case the term "dead money" comes to mind. Take a clue from syz about emerging mkts. I would also suggest starting dd on some MLP ETFs, and some REIT ETF. As you and I both know---remember your rants about FB?-- even the SPY can be gamed. While Bogle is probably right about dart boards, there has never been a substitute for DD other than dumb luck.

  • Reply to

    hc, The New vs the Old WEB

    by jad1148 Jul 6, 2014 7:03 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 6, 2014 5:17 PM Flag

    mv,
    Nope. " HC's just playing a different game than WB. Thus, he's logical, but irrational.
    It's also true that in WB's world the proper investor borrows against his mortgage, b uys some BRK, and 40-50 years later sells it, and divides the after tax proceeds to living expenses, estate, and charity. The superior investor has enough capital to put 100% of BRK to estate and charity.
    .

  • Reply to

    hc, The New vs the Old WEB

    by jad1148 Jul 6, 2014 7:03 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jul 6, 2014 5:12 PM Flag

    HC, As rare as it is...thumbs up. Id say WB's "inferior investor" was what you or I would be honest and call traders and speculators and specialists--specialists being 3 grades lower than lawyers on the pondscum ladder.
    If WB were to listen to me there'd be another "split" at this point: BRKC, trading at 1/10 of the B.
    THEN it would make sense to have a div of 2% of the surplus cash go to A shares, since it would obey rule #1 of Wall St.---"ph*** retail.

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jun 30, 2014 5:27 PM Flag

    msft,
    Sure they do--they get paid to. By shareholder dilution.

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jun 30, 2014 5:26 PM Flag

    jetpro,
    Nope. BTX has to start showing gross revenues above payroll. After that, the idea that it can bring in gross over G&A becomes believable--leaving the ongoing dilution only for R&D.
    Currently this dog is about a decade away from that.

  • Reply to

    Stocks’ Biggest Gains Are an Inside Job ,

    by hjclasvegas6969 Jun 30, 2014 8:17 AM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jun 30, 2014 5:22 PM Flag

    HC,
    Evidently you are too young to recall when WB actually made his bones on American Express. Once he had a cushion of $3-4 billion over what's needed for stuff like that; and gets stuck with a bunch of whiny retail road kill out of BNSF--time to adjust.
    And you still evidently lack the dd skills to read IBM as anything but a balance sheet.--by which standard, at the present time, 90% of the market is just that--sheet.
    WB plays his game. People get to take the ride, but it is his game--none of the "shareholders are stakeholders.

  • Reply to

    Typical close

    by jetpro3 Jun 27, 2014 6:28 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jun 27, 2014 7:23 PM Flag

    jetpro,
    Not true. On 4x currently "normal" vol, it closed within 1/32 of where it opened.
    That's support.... at around 6x book.
    Likely most shares bought on the recent fall back got sold. Likely a fair amount of short covering also got done around 2 1/2.
    And due to the dilution, AK & Garfies' ability to keep this dog 4--6 is gone, and is now 3--5. With 5 being a comfortable place for shorts to hit--even while they are paying pumpers here.

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jun 26, 2014 6:37 PM Flag

    clofwn,
    The charlatans are the pumpers here who maintain that any of the sales pitch will ever show up as shareholder assets in the plus kol of BTX holders.
    This dog is a chew toy for specialists, insiders and cronies.
    In the meantime, none of these pumpers and koolade drinkers will state how much BTX has paid Cornell since the "partnership" started, or guessed how much it will pay to Cornell before $1,000 gross to BTX results from the spending.

  • Reply to

    o/t, options and things,

    by hjclasvegas6969 Jun 20, 2014 12:36 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jun 20, 2014 10:52 PM Flag

    HC,
    From doing "go figure" I got: both of them are deeply concerned about an upcoming liquidity crunch.
    You are possibly old enough to remember this joke punchline: "Okay. To whom?"
    If Ts aren;t as fungible as cash to phreaking FIDO (as opposed to SPoint or the Palms) somebody is very, very scared.
    Can I interest any of the college boys in some slightly used LEH Non-Cumulative Perpetual Preferred ? I'm pretty sure I know guys who had buckets of it.....

  • Reply to

    o/t, options and things,

    by hjclasvegas6969 Jun 20, 2014 12:36 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jun 20, 2014 6:25 PM Flag

    HC,
    " my broker wouldn't let me," Why the ph*** not?
    Like---where is that in the contract?

  • Reply to

    #$%$

    by rickb44 Jun 17, 2014 9:03 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jun 19, 2014 5:07 PM Flag

    jmil2,
    Uhuh...Which has nothing to do with the price 0f the common stock.
    Just think --if this dog goes up 30% from here, it will close to where you bought in--minus the 40% or so you would have had buying the S&P.

  • Reply to

    #$%$

    by rickb44 Jun 17, 2014 9:03 PM
    baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jun 18, 2014 7:17 PM Flag

    Of course it "stinks" to anyone who missed the point---it ain;t about you. It's about pretending that Pedro matters--the same as the last 4 "genius" hires BTX has done.
    GERN holders??? Mikey told you all to go ******* yourselves over a decade ago.
    Why would you think that would change?

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jun 17, 2014 7:06 PM Flag

    So-- You are paying 0% for the margin?
    Who's writing that?
    I'd call it 17.4 minus the vig as the return on capital now at risk times some high fraction for the possible volatility around 120.
    Which is to say....whatever...6 months from now HC will be claiming whatever profit was made came from him whining for a 1% div---and any loss because there isn't a div.
    In the meantime, in the "real" world--what actual benefit derived from the transaction? Somewhere around none.

  • baltbear@ymail.com baltbear Jun 13, 2014 10:32 PM Flag

    What's "wrong" is shareholders thinking mgt is concerned with shareholder return on investment; along with the retail road kill thinking "the science" has anything at all to do with the common stock.

BRK-A
192,900.00+400.00(+0.21%)Jul 11 4:01 PMEDT

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