Many (most?) biotechs are down today...some of which are down quite a bit more than CYCC...Best we can hope for is an end to the broader sell off. This happened in January and the stock was able to quickly recover. Hopefully we don't go much lower from here. Good luck everyone!
Thanks for your reply. I'm long and hope you're right. Regarding futility analysis, that's a strong point as it will hopefully offer good reason to invest here. As for the institutions who bought into the offering, can you elaborate on that a bit more?
Also, do you have any comment regarding potential partnerships?
Red flags as I see them include the following:
Surprise share offering at $3.50 (although this could have been worse)
Virtually no attention from Wall St
No update on partnership or MDS pathway despite promise that the MDS update was "weeks" away
Constant decline of share price
Small insider and institutional ownership
History of surprise share dilution
Despite those facts, I'm still long. But they're certainly worthy of discussion and further consideration.
In summary, this is a high risk/high reward stock with an apparently dubious CEO. I can only hope that the shareholders are rewarded with positive information in the coming weeks and months, and that Spiro's actions can be justified by some future positive development.
Good luck! And God Bless America!
I'm of the mind that this stock is being mercilessly beaten and will require patience and a level head. It's a high risk investment that's not for everybody, I still think that there's hope here, however it may not improve until more data is released. The fact that CYCC is being dismissed by the market concerns me a great deal, although today's price action appears to be shared by many other biotechs, such as SNSS, CYTR, GALE, AMRN, ICPT, LJPC, GALT, ABIO, ISR, and ROSG. Granted, a good few of those listed have had recent controversies, I still think the dramatic biotech sell off is impacting many small cap, speculative stocks.
I think longs are becoming increasingly critical of Spiro as the price declines, likely due to a decreasing threshold for losses. How much of a beating can one's position take before they stop being nice? Despite knowledge of how risky a biotech investment can be, I think it's important to consider that the shareholders expect management to protect them as best as possible from potential downside. If Spiro announced a partnership, it may lessen the blow of potential failure in some or all of the trials. Further, it would significantly ease the commercialization process in the event of success. I think the euphoria is dying down a bit as it's becoming more challenging to justify Spiro's actions with hypothetical scenarios that may or may not transpire.
With all that said, I'm still long CYCC. I'm willing to admit that there are considerable red flags that I've taken notice of, and that there's no guarantee of success here. Alternatively, I'm also aware that positive developments can substantially increase the value of CYCC, and that the reward may be worth the risk. Even if CYCC fails to gain any approvals, it is still possible that the share price may rise upon solid developments between now and the time that top line data is released.
This is true. I suppose even my best case scenario is a bit reserved. As I've stated across my other posts, I'm still quite bullish, but see the potential bearish elements of the investment thesis. Good luck to all longs! :)
I really do. Best case scenario in my opinion is that there's an ongoing partnership negotiation and Spiro wanted to assure that he'll be taken care of and that the company's value will be higher. But I'm tapering my expectations...As I said earlier, this may be a very long play...I'll gladly welcome short term advances, though.
I will assume that your hunger for information is genuine. I too shared your enthusiasm when I started posting on this board about a month or so ago. I still share your enthusiasm for the long term, however some of the criticisms directed toward the CEO are with merit. When asking for a bear case, it is unreasonable to expect the discussion to focus specifically on the technology at hand, as the technology does not exist in a vacuum. Since this is a corporation that is owned publicly by numerous shareholders, it is reasonable for the shareholders to have high expectations of the management. As you've probably noticed, there have been quite a few posts from those who claim to be long who are upset with the management. This is not unexpected, nor is it unreasonable. In fact, I'd be surprised if all of the posts displayed gratitude to the management. I suspect the reason for the bulk of the criticism is due to the low share price in combination with a lack of apparent shareholder-friendly leadership from the CEO. At this stage in the pipeline, one would expect a much higher share price/market cap as can be seen in other competing companies such as SNSS. Taken together with the fact that the CEO has increased his salary, not publicly announced a partnership, and issued new shares at a price far below the 52 week high, yet over 15% higher than what the CEO had purchased his shares at, it's quite understandable for people to present themselves as bearish. At this stage, I can't offer any advice, however I would hypothetically consider adding shares with money that one doesn't mind tying up for a long time, as there may not be a quick increase in share price. I'm still bullish on the outcome of the phase 3 trial, however I too have become a bit pessimistic about the near term prospects of the share price... Perhaps it will rise again in the near term if the biotech sell off reverses. Either way, Good luck and try not to develop a polarized view of the stock.
There are a couple of small milestones coming up regardless of our dubious CEO...Hopefully they boost the share price a little....but hope isn't enough to rest on...
at this point, a 20 cent increase would be worthy of celebration....sadly...
It stands to reason then that other potential investors would be buying in ahead of this, which should still drive the share price up. I don't see it exactly as you do as the market is forward looking and is often times overzealous when it comes to speculating. I'm long and remaining patient, but I respectfully disagree with your analysis.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
I sincerely hope you're right! If we were trading in line with our peers, we'd be MUCH higher. I can't believe we're still under $5, and I expect a rapid appreciation in share price...I'm still left wondering why we're trading as low as we are...Even the analyst estimates (however dated they may be) suggest a greater than 100% upside! I anticipate that be mid summer, we'll be trading above $5. I hope I'm right, and I hope your optimistic predictions come true...
It makes no difference does it? We're all on the same side, and yet all the pumping and bashing has obviously not helped/hurt the share price in the slightest. We've been trading in the 3s for quite some time now and I don't think any post on here has really contributed to the share price in any meaningful way...So all of the back and forth insults serve nothing more than ego.
lol I too am frustrated by the lack of share price appreciation... It's almost as though everyone except for posters here think this drug will CERTAINLY fail....Right now, if this company was taken seriously at all, it should be trading at over $10....So I have no idea why we're hovering in the mid threes.... I call shenanigans!
Your optimism seems warranted here. The secondary came after a generally positive conference call and investors can safely anticipate two updates on the phase 3 trials: The next review update and then a futility study update. So with that in mind, any positive news before or between then will be a welcomed bonus. I'm still trying to figure out why we closed UP today after the secondary...It's amazing, really... We'll see what Monday has to bring.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Incredible to think that it should reach ~$18 a share with a little attention from bio investors interested in AML... Look at SNSS's market cap, and then look at CYCC's.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Who'd have thought that we'd have our best trading day on the day of dilution. Definitely a nice turn of events.
Sentiment: Strong Buy
Volume's jumping. Price is climbing...I'm not looking at the L2s so I overlooked the likelihood that a smaller bid got in front of the larger big as cheeseburger mentioned. But something's up, and it looks to me like it's the share price lol.