PEG=.08 is cheap. Especially for authentic growth.
Let's hope this becomes a growth chaser soon enough...but a true industrial power in the longer run.
Then a bunch of us can discuss meeting in Las Vegas.
I admit that Mad Money has given me a few tips over the years. Exactly as you said, it's prompted more investigation. I definitely appreciate that.
By the way, there are several posters here in GTAT a lot longer than me, with a lot more basis. I think some have $1 million+ paper worth in GTAT now. Absolutely outstanding.
Exactly Clark. I want to always increase my basis, never lose. I want to beat the indices consistently. And if an occasional calculated risker bet like GTAT comes to fruition, so much the better.
As you infer, one of the best gifts to give our kids is finance knowledge. If kids coming out of high school understood the power of compounding and time, they'd right out of the gate save & invest...building up impressive positions by the time they are 30 or so...an excellent basis to wage off of which to take some of their significant net worth and find the next GTAT.
I envy kids in this regard. A really attentive and ambitious kid can do wonders through our markets. They have so much better info & technology then we did.
Let's hope they also like sapphire stuff!
The eggs in one basket is still living dangerously. As your pseud suggests, sure, you'll probably get lucky this time, as will I, with GTAT. But if you over concentrate like this often enough, you'll get burned.
I still have most of my portfolio in value investments. GTAT is definitely the best performer in such a short time, spectacular really. It might in the next 5 years generate wealth near equal to what I've accumulated since 1990! But, should GTAT not perform as I expect, I'll still become a millionaire in the next 4 years on my weighting in value.
All I'm saying is that a GTAT is the exception for an emergent company. All the best for all of us.
I'll say it again: use Cramer when is focused and measured, but totally ignore the entertainment portion of his show. In plain English, he's usually spot on when discussing long term issues, but wildly guessing in short term issues.
He actually is totally correct about calling for a longer cyclical bull. Heck, he's even now echoing what I've been saying for years about energy and 3D printing reinvigorating a US industrial base that already produces 20% of global manufacturing GDP. He, like me, is hoping for an emergent secular bull.
Mind you, he also can suffer through sheer ignorance. He has it wrong on the so called holy trinity of social, mobile, & cloud computing. At least in asserting the winners and losers. Anybody choosing SalesForce, WorkDay, ServiceNow, and pure SAAS companies over Oracle, SAP, IBM, & Microsoft simply doesn't understand technology.
But on the short term stuff? He's wild, impulsive, and just emoting. He's making money being a court jester. He's the Emeril Lagasse of the investing world.
Put 2 + 2 together. Take Cramer on his word about emergent North American industrial prowess. Then add GTAT into the equation...which suddenly our Mr. Cramer is starting to do, witness he & his staff attending the conference to do "due diligence".
Heck, even a cynical value investor like me beat him to punch 2 years in advance.
In most cases, I would have lost money listening to Cramer. TRN is a great example. He has consistently argued against it. Here is my investing history with TRN (smaller amounts are reinvested dividends):
DATE shares total price $/share
17/08/2007 150 $4,958.95 $33.06
31/10/2007 0.29 $10.50 $35.84
28/11/2007 200 $5,241.95 $26.21
31/01/2008 0.9 $24.52 $27.37
30/04/2008 0.79 $24.58 $31.11
31/07/2008 0.72 $28.16 $38.84
31/10/2008 1.71 $28.22 $16.54
30/01/2009 2.42 $28.35 $11.71
30/04/2009 1.89 $28.55 $15.14
31/07/2009 2.03 $28.70 $14.17
30/10/2009 1.66 $28.86 $17.44
29/01/2010 1.82 $28.99 $15.89
30/04/2010 1.14 $29.14 $25.58
30/07/2010 1.44 $29.23 $20.34
29/10/2010 1.29 $29.34 $22.71
31/01/2011 1.06 $29.45 $27.76
29/04/2011 0.82 $29.53 $36.06
29/07/2011 1.13 $33.30 $29.37
31/10/2011 1.2 $33.40 $27.76
31/01/2012 1.06 $33.51 $31.64
30/04/2012 1.14 $33.60 $29.40
31/07/2012 1.46 $41.20 $28.30
31/10/2012 1.32 $41.36 $31.22
31/01/2013 1.05 $41.50 $39.41
30/04/2013 1 $41.62 $41.75
31/07/2013 1.27 $49.31 $38.95
31/10/2013 1.14 $57.09 $49.86
31/01/2014 0.97 $57.26 $59.21
total shares: 382.72
avg $/share: $26.65
current value: $25,902.49
total return: 179.66%
basis yield: 2.01%
S&P500 return wi reinvested div: 40%
Cramer would have cost me some serious money here.
It's gotten more sophisticated. I didn't call it "the art of lying" for nothing.
A person needs more education, experience, & social IQ than ever to see past lying.
As to the degree of lying, you're probably right.
I'm also banmate7 at Seeking Alpha. In particular, look at my posted results in comments on DOW & TRN. Both were value investments that scored market beating success. I go into decent detail here.
Obviously you have to comprehensively assess even a value investment, particularly in terms of credible growth. But in general, I disagree with you that large predictable cash flow companies are not less risky. At the end of the day, a the stock price of a a good business will track earnings...making this a consistent way of finding and realizing alpha.
Academic? All I need to do is cite Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett, & even Chuck Carnevale at Seeking Alpha. I use Carnevale's Fast Track tool to excellent value investing effect. Value investing has NEVER failed to bring me alpha...and, maybe more importantly, avoid losing money.
Excellent points and food for thought!
I still say the former is riskier than the latter. Why? Because an incumbent is rarely revolutionary, but more often than not evolutionary in what it brings...and an established player can, more often than not, respond to evolutionary innovation, even revolutionary innovation, with enough agility to stay competitive...even becoming a hunter.
Let's consider cloud computing, using SalesForce, WorkDay, & ServiceNow. They're new players, specifically in SAAS computing. I definitely see them as riskier than IBM, SAP, Oracle, & Microsoft...which possess the entire IAAS, PAAS, & SAAS stack...not to mention compelling financials. With SalesForce facing possible SEC investigation for an inability to qualify revenue, this isn't trivial.
In short: SAP, Oracle, Microsoft, and IBM are hunting these emergent cloud companies that Cramer keeps pumping. They're only now training their guns on cloud computing, in spite of having supplied IAAS and PAAS to many of the SAAS new comers.
Obviously, this isn't a perfect analogy between GLW and GTAT. For one, GTAT might have revolutionary technology. GTAT indeed might have a much stronger moat in emergent solar and sapphire markets than the SAAS companies in cloud computing. Not least, GLW & GTAT might actually stoke competition to bolster both their sales in intersecting markets, never mind non-intersecting markets.
We'll see once product ships. Mind you, as I keep saying, I'm betting on the deductive positives with GTAT. And yes, I'll say it again, boring as I've come to sound: deductive risk is risker than value investing inductive risk.
I'm long on GLW & GTAT. I'm weighted equally now in basis terms...but GTAT is definitely outpacing GLW in return!
Come on. When have analysts even on the whole been ethical? As we humans evolve, the art of lying has become more subtle and collusive than ever...particularly amongst colluding elites with a high IQ.
As in all things in life, as you noted, you have to do your own due diligence and make the final decision.
I rarely insult people online...but you are one of the most idiotic posters I have come across.
I don't believe you need an education on how the professional world can be about doublethink and doublespeak. It comes with the territory as you succeed. And suffice it to say, the best defense is a good offense...meaning, keep scoring success.
One, they'll keep coming to you, in spite of their envy.
Two, you eventually have the power of f*** you money.
He can't even get it right on emergent energy & manufacturing. He consistently has blasted TRN, which has returned 175% since 2007.
Yet he will tout SalesForce, which might be under SEC scrutiny due to an inability to strictly categorize revenue sources.
GTAT is my lone risk play. Otherwise I am in value investments. I own 22 stocks in total. Risk is on the whole mitigated here.
But I am getting very lucky with GTAT so far. None of my basis shares are underwater. And although $1 million is ambitious, it's not insane if this company's growth pans out...and I keep adding basis.
So far so good. All the best!
I've come to the conclusion that Cramer does more harm than good. He can be illuminating when he's measured and calm. But this seldom happens, as he's mostly in huckster mode.
I know he's mostly an entertainer, but he ultimately does mislead. Last night was the particularly bad, with his hypocritical views on voodoo accounting. He'll justify voodoo accounting for favorites, but yet call into question growth on a moat.
I also saw a video of him criticizing Warren Buffett. Cramer blasted Buffett for not engaging in financial engineering with BRK. Cramer claimed that Buffett had obligation to make as much money as fast as possible...and therein lies the problem.
Anybody listening to Cramer is a fool. You really have to sift his words with a fine toothed comb.
I figured that. It's a learning curve, as I simply don't do options much. I've contemplated selling covered calls on stable stocks out of the money for extra income...but selling puts is new territory.
Still, I should have pulled the trigger.