Well, we're indeed getting a bit of a pullback. I don't believe this will last long. It seems it's driven by geopolitical concerns.
I expect the overall market to resume it's upward trending in September or so. Obviously, I think a truly bad geopolitical escalation would be an outlier. Fundamentals look good. Valuation metrics are not irrationally exuberant in markets.
Give it time.
I too expect solid returns by the end of the year. But especially in the coming decade. This is an excellent company to own given secular trends in energy, manufacturing, and 3D printing. North American companies can dominate supply chains globally even more now.
And railroad supply chains will disproportionately benefit.
Give it time. We're in August and in a bit of small overall market pullback. Also, you know as well as I do that the market can be irrational any time.
But eventually price will track earnings. Rationality will make itself felt. TRN is growing revenue and earnings. The valuation is cheap to fair in lieu of this. I'm now up 250% since I bought in 2007.
I'm glad I held. It's approaching being a 4x bagger. I expect this will be a blowout stock in the coming decade. Positive secular trends in North America for energy and manufacturing bode very well for the railroad supply chain.
Matt has to make a living. His living now is in fact gather information, analyzing it, and providing useful analytics and even conclusions.
Matt initially offered his labor for free. It gave us a chance to assess his work. I for one was impressed. My only criticism is that he was too open and personal at times. It's something that a mean spirited and cynical world will quickly disabuse him of.
But overall, I think Matt will do fine. I am grateful for what he did. He'll have a fine future as an analyst. I wish him all the best. All of us should here...not least for helping most of us run up good money on GTAT.
The bottom line is that we outsiders have to rely on deductive thinking to assess GTAT. This is just a fancy way of saying we're guessing. There simply is no useful empirical evidence upon from which to draw more traditional conclusions.
As many of us keep stating, a major piece of empirical evidence will come with revenue and earnings reports in the next quarter. No matter how one slices it, that's the measure of a business. Again, GTAT had better meet their $600 - $800 million guidance.
Meeting this affirms the quality of the business. Failure means something is amiss. Period. There is no over thinking this.
And because GTAT is an emerging company, the stock will move hard either way. I just "hope" it's for the good. I have a $27k basis worth about $45k right now. 3050 shares averaged at $9.09.
I'm normally a value investor. All my investments are otherwise roaring positively. GTAT is my lone speculative play. Like I keep saying...it indeed is S-P-E-C-U-L-A-T-I-V-E!
GTAT has to hit guidance. Period. I believe failure here will seriously drive the price down.
For all of my cynical bashing of wall street, it rewards accurate guidance. No need for profits. Just show growth. Why? Growth shows that there are tangible products that deserve speculation. Never mind managerial trust.
I'm a long. But like wall street, I want to see real supply and demand dynamics here. The window for deductive based hope is closing. We need something more tangible. We need to see GTAT become a real growth chaser...which, to repeat, means hitting growth guidance.
As to managerial trust, I'm wary. Given insider selling and an apparent lack of significant buying, I'll be upset if revenue guidance indeed isn't achieved.
As many of us note across various forums, the management team should lead by example here. We've discussed this before. Great management teams don't sell significant stock until their companies have grown and stabilized to some degree.
Lastly, GTAT remains a speculation play. Hitting revenue targets will make it a true growth chaser. Not there yet. It what it is. Fingers crossed.
I've been on my World Cup sabbatical, which I obviously do every 4 years. Even my investing activities come to a halt for football, my true passion in life.
Volatility remains the name of the game with GTAT. But we're inching towards an inflection point, one where this will morph into a growth base momentum stock. It all comes down to achieving the $600 - $800 million in revenue guidance this year.
To this end, a lot will depend on the market's acceptance of sapphire covers. GTAT is about to be put to the test here. I remain hopeful of course. I'm also hopeful that GTAT will also start to generate revenue and profits in solar areas.
I'm at 3050 shares, averaged in at $9.09. As always, I'm looking to add more. I keep missing dips. This time I will pull the trigger if we again hit the $14 ranges. I don't expect GTAT to go much below this, perhaps $12.x at worst.
I like the overall economy. I still believe we're morphing into a secular bull. US corporations remain best situated to provide goods and services for growing global demand. I expect corporate earnings to improve a current S&P500 PE=19, which isn't insane...which is even supported to a degree by historically low interest rates.
At worst, I see a mild cyclical bear. So I don't fear any negative macroeconomic forces. GTAT will prosper or fail on its own merits. That's how I like it.
All the best.
As I said in previous posts, I'm sticking with my interpretation of technical and fundamental facts. I still maintain we're going into a secular bull in the next 18 months. TRN will experience heightened top line growth & earnings, especially on the basis of a North American energy and manufacturing renaissance.
Not least, it's at a PE of 12. That alone should be some value investing protection against a significant downturn. Hence, I'm for now holding.
Given the past 2 days, I imagine I should have sold at $86 and bought back in at today's $80. But it's tough to trade short term like this. Investing for the long haul has gotten me here.
I really feel the economy is going to strengthen. I still think energy, manufacturing, and industrials are going into secular bull mode in the next 18 months. TRN seems like it still has considerable upside.
A stop loss might be in order, just in case we get a cyclical bear.
Very well noted. People are now chasing TRN. But, as you said, there might be business justification.
The TRN blended PE is 15, compared to a 15 year trailing average of 12. This should be worrisome. But railcar activity seems to be trending up. Earnings forecasts for TRN are bullish. We're also in a period of historically low interest rates. I also believe we'll get a mild cyclical bear to sideways trading for a while...until earnings pick up and we go into a full blown secular bull.
I'm holding my shares. I have a paper gain of 227% right now, since I bought in August of 2007. I think we'll see $100+ in the next 18 months.
My guess is that smart money believes the $600 - $800 million will happen. Somebody took profits whilst somebody is preparing for them. Not all the smart money can get in all at once and the smart money that did has to sometimes sell.
That's what my mind is thinking.
I've gone easier on Cramer over time. He's entertaining. And he does actually offer some good information, especially in macroeconomic trends and sentiment.
As in all things in life, there is a premium on being knowledgeable and sifting what others tell you. Especially in finance. Heck, even Warren Buffett's advice and methodologies are useless if the practitioner isn't disciplined about them.
More to the point, don't listen to Cramer lightening round. Listen when he discusses a rotation from growth into value. Listen how he consistently upholds IBM, particularly when invoking Buffett.
Ok, you and retailbaboon have short circuited what was a slippery slope into something more than I bargained for. Good to know about the Black & Scholes model.
Like I said...stay tuned.
I want the shares. Getting capital doesn't do me as good, given the potential opportunity cost once GTAT begins to climb. Hence, I'm going to sell some higher priced puts...which would be a 1st for me in this type of option.
And as I said, I probably will outright buy and hold shares. But as you discussed, I'll also have to temper my expectations of lows. Thanks for the advice!
That's my outlook as well. Be opportunistic on dips, letting the long term story play itself out. It really is no simpler than this.
More specifically, I'm looking to heavily add at a $10 - $12 range. I might be tempted in the $13's as well. Do any of you think these ranges will happen?
I think most of us are saying the same thing. GTAT will prosper in the long term. Probably as early as the last 3 months of this year, if it meets guidance in revenue.
I'm waiting patiently. But if I do have short term plan, it's too buy more shares in July and August. We might see $10 - $12 dips, although $13+ seems to be a "resistance" level.
We're in an ironic macroeconomic situation. The street and even retail investors suddenly are becoming more rational. They're actually putting a premium on value. GTAT is being associated with speculative momentum.
Fortunately, GTAT will be associated with proven growth...perhaps even value, sooner rather than later. I still maintain that GTAT is speculation. But selling products well received in sapphire and solar can change all that.
All the best fellow GTAT hopefuls.