Long term you should be fine.
TRN has run up hard. But it's justified. And, as I've noted in past posts, it's still at fair value. Fundamentals indicate strong earnings and, consequently, stock price growth.
It is indeed a great company. It's amazing that it still hasn't become a more glamorous stock. Then again, this is true for many of my energy, manufacturing, and transportation supply chain investments.
This is good for those of us who do our due diligence. Eventually "the herd" will buy in. Mutual funds and ibanks will increasingly see the full potential of the energy + manufacturing + transportation supply chain...which is weighing heavily in North America.
All the best.
Thanks for the response.
I am holding for now. I'm just weighing ideas and opinions. So far, most are positive.
And thinking about it, yes, AWK is probably strong defensively. Water is water. Inelastic demand I guess.
I don't have a big position. I sure wish I did go in big 2 years ago. Adding more seems expensive...unless, of course, the high growth thesis holds.
It's at a PE = 23. I've gotten a 50% gain in 2 years. Not bad. But obviously I'm thinking the PE might have surged ahead.
I'm bullish on water in general. But I wonder if there is enough growth to support these valuations. Any thoughts?
Amazingly enough, the PE is 12.4, with solid growth signs. This company has enjoyed a remarkable growth run, maintaining fair value. Significant growth on high valuation is a worthy goal...but significant growth on fair valuation is even better.
I am hoping that in an era of strong North American energy and manufacturing fundamentals, TRN valuations will go higher. Say from an average of 12 to 15.
We might get an overall market correction in the next 6 - 8 months. But in the next 12 - 16 months, I expect us to fully morph into a secular bull. TRN will have a strong run in the next decade.
I see a range of $14 - $19 in this time. I think once the year ends, and when we really hit even the lower end of guidance, the low $20s will be the so called resistance.
If we go to $14 or $15, I am definitely buying. I've avoided doing so for the last 2 dips, but a 3rd time will have me move. Here is what I own as of now:
date shares total price $/share
30-Jan-14 100 $1,024.00 $10.24
30-Jan-14 200 $2,048.00 $10.24
30-Jan-14 500 $5,120.00 $10.24
30-Jan-14 200 $2,056.95 $10.28
24-Mar-14 100 $1,682.00 $16.82
date shares total price $/share
16-Aug-2012 100 $544.95 $5.45
17-Aug-2012 400 $2,605.91 $6.51
18-Dec-2012 650 $1,994.89 $3.07
11-Feb-2014 100 $1,109.00 $11.09
11-Feb-2014 100 $1,109.00 $11.09
11-Feb-2014 200 $2,218.00 $11.09
11-Feb-2014 100 $1,114.95 $11.15
6-Mar-2014 300 $5,094.00 $16.98
This is a $27,721.65 basis worth $52,948.00 today.
All the best.
You are an fool on so many levels that it just cannot be addressed on a chat board.
I'll humor you nevertheless on TRN issues. Check my past posts on this board. I've posted in concrete detail how TRN has returned 230% for me since 2007. It was up 250% some weeks ago.
So it's making a localized pullback from highs. So what? I'm going to sell because you think a 10% market correction is in order? Or because you don't recognize value or fundamentals, which is apparent given how you characterize TRN as a MOMO.
We might get a cyclical bear market. I actually think we're in one right now, albeit a mild one. Then I think we're going into a secular bull, on fundamentals of course. Fundamentals in energy and manufacturing. And a decent number of macro technicals.
Sure, stick around. We'll see whom makes more money here in the longer run.
2 great companies. I have a $25k basis in GLW and a $27k basis in GTAT. They're up 50% and 105% respectively.
I expect both to do great in the coming years. Obviously I expect GTAT to generate greater returns. In due time, I think GTAT can grow to the size of a GLW.
Some of their markets intersect. Some don't. Both companies have plenty of room to maneuver. It's not a zero sum game between them.
You basically said it can go up or down, within a $35 - $70 range. Thanks for the insight.
Charts? I got a great tip about them from Warren Buffett. I turned one upside down. Yep. No difference!
Well, we're indeed getting a bit of a pullback. I don't believe this will last long. It seems it's driven by geopolitical concerns.
I expect the overall market to resume it's upward trending in September or so. Obviously, I think a truly bad geopolitical escalation would be an outlier. Fundamentals look good. Valuation metrics are not irrationally exuberant in markets.
Give it time.
I too expect solid returns by the end of the year. But especially in the coming decade. This is an excellent company to own given secular trends in energy, manufacturing, and 3D printing. North American companies can dominate supply chains globally even more now.
And railroad supply chains will disproportionately benefit.
Give it time. We're in August and in a bit of small overall market pullback. Also, you know as well as I do that the market can be irrational any time.
But eventually price will track earnings. Rationality will make itself felt. TRN is growing revenue and earnings. The valuation is cheap to fair in lieu of this. I'm now up 250% since I bought in 2007.
I'm glad I held. It's approaching being a 4x bagger. I expect this will be a blowout stock in the coming decade. Positive secular trends in North America for energy and manufacturing bode very well for the railroad supply chain.
Matt has to make a living. His living now is in fact gather information, analyzing it, and providing useful analytics and even conclusions.
Matt initially offered his labor for free. It gave us a chance to assess his work. I for one was impressed. My only criticism is that he was too open and personal at times. It's something that a mean spirited and cynical world will quickly disabuse him of.
But overall, I think Matt will do fine. I am grateful for what he did. He'll have a fine future as an analyst. I wish him all the best. All of us should here...not least for helping most of us run up good money on GTAT.
The bottom line is that we outsiders have to rely on deductive thinking to assess GTAT. This is just a fancy way of saying we're guessing. There simply is no useful empirical evidence upon from which to draw more traditional conclusions.
As many of us keep stating, a major piece of empirical evidence will come with revenue and earnings reports in the next quarter. No matter how one slices it, that's the measure of a business. Again, GTAT had better meet their $600 - $800 million guidance.
Meeting this affirms the quality of the business. Failure means something is amiss. Period. There is no over thinking this.
And because GTAT is an emerging company, the stock will move hard either way. I just "hope" it's for the good. I have a $27k basis worth about $45k right now. 3050 shares averaged at $9.09.
I'm normally a value investor. All my investments are otherwise roaring positively. GTAT is my lone speculative play. Like I keep saying...it indeed is S-P-E-C-U-L-A-T-I-V-E!
GTAT has to hit guidance. Period. I believe failure here will seriously drive the price down.
For all of my cynical bashing of wall street, it rewards accurate guidance. No need for profits. Just show growth. Why? Growth shows that there are tangible products that deserve speculation. Never mind managerial trust.
I'm a long. But like wall street, I want to see real supply and demand dynamics here. The window for deductive based hope is closing. We need something more tangible. We need to see GTAT become a real growth chaser...which, to repeat, means hitting growth guidance.
As to managerial trust, I'm wary. Given insider selling and an apparent lack of significant buying, I'll be upset if revenue guidance indeed isn't achieved.
As many of us note across various forums, the management team should lead by example here. We've discussed this before. Great management teams don't sell significant stock until their companies have grown and stabilized to some degree.
Lastly, GTAT remains a speculation play. Hitting revenue targets will make it a true growth chaser. Not there yet. It what it is. Fingers crossed.
I've been on my World Cup sabbatical, which I obviously do every 4 years. Even my investing activities come to a halt for football, my true passion in life.
Volatility remains the name of the game with GTAT. But we're inching towards an inflection point, one where this will morph into a growth base momentum stock. It all comes down to achieving the $600 - $800 million in revenue guidance this year.
To this end, a lot will depend on the market's acceptance of sapphire covers. GTAT is about to be put to the test here. I remain hopeful of course. I'm also hopeful that GTAT will also start to generate revenue and profits in solar areas.
I'm at 3050 shares, averaged in at $9.09. As always, I'm looking to add more. I keep missing dips. This time I will pull the trigger if we again hit the $14 ranges. I don't expect GTAT to go much below this, perhaps $12.x at worst.
I like the overall economy. I still believe we're morphing into a secular bull. US corporations remain best situated to provide goods and services for growing global demand. I expect corporate earnings to improve a current S&P500 PE=19, which isn't insane...which is even supported to a degree by historically low interest rates.
At worst, I see a mild cyclical bear. So I don't fear any negative macroeconomic forces. GTAT will prosper or fail on its own merits. That's how I like it.
All the best.
As I said in previous posts, I'm sticking with my interpretation of technical and fundamental facts. I still maintain we're going into a secular bull in the next 18 months. TRN will experience heightened top line growth & earnings, especially on the basis of a North American energy and manufacturing renaissance.
Not least, it's at a PE of 12. That alone should be some value investing protection against a significant downturn. Hence, I'm for now holding.
Given the past 2 days, I imagine I should have sold at $86 and bought back in at today's $80. But it's tough to trade short term like this. Investing for the long haul has gotten me here.
I really feel the economy is going to strengthen. I still think energy, manufacturing, and industrials are going into secular bull mode in the next 18 months. TRN seems like it still has considerable upside.
A stop loss might be in order, just in case we get a cyclical bear.