I've been on my World Cup sabbatical, which I obviously do every 4 years. Even my investing activities come to a halt for football, my true passion in life.
Volatility remains the name of the game with GTAT. But we're inching towards an inflection point, one where this will morph into a growth base momentum stock. It all comes down to achieving the $600 - $800 million in revenue guidance this year.
To this end, a lot will depend on the market's acceptance of sapphire covers. GTAT is about to be put to the test here. I remain hopeful of course. I'm also hopeful that GTAT will also start to generate revenue and profits in solar areas.
I'm at 3050 shares, averaged in at $9.09. As always, I'm looking to add more. I keep missing dips. This time I will pull the trigger if we again hit the $14 ranges. I don't expect GTAT to go much below this, perhaps $12.x at worst.
I like the overall economy. I still believe we're morphing into a secular bull. US corporations remain best situated to provide goods and services for growing global demand. I expect corporate earnings to improve a current S&P500 PE=19, which isn't insane...which is even supported to a degree by historically low interest rates.
At worst, I see a mild cyclical bear. So I don't fear any negative macroeconomic forces. GTAT will prosper or fail on its own merits. That's how I like it.
All the best.
As I said in previous posts, I'm sticking with my interpretation of technical and fundamental facts. I still maintain we're going into a secular bull in the next 18 months. TRN will experience heightened top line growth & earnings, especially on the basis of a North American energy and manufacturing renaissance.
Not least, it's at a PE of 12. That alone should be some value investing protection against a significant downturn. Hence, I'm for now holding.
Given the past 2 days, I imagine I should have sold at $86 and bought back in at today's $80. But it's tough to trade short term like this. Investing for the long haul has gotten me here.
I really feel the economy is going to strengthen. I still think energy, manufacturing, and industrials are going into secular bull mode in the next 18 months. TRN seems like it still has considerable upside.
A stop loss might be in order, just in case we get a cyclical bear.
Very well noted. People are now chasing TRN. But, as you said, there might be business justification.
The TRN blended PE is 15, compared to a 15 year trailing average of 12. This should be worrisome. But railcar activity seems to be trending up. Earnings forecasts for TRN are bullish. We're also in a period of historically low interest rates. I also believe we'll get a mild cyclical bear to sideways trading for a while...until earnings pick up and we go into a full blown secular bull.
I'm holding my shares. I have a paper gain of 227% right now, since I bought in August of 2007. I think we'll see $100+ in the next 18 months.
My guess is that smart money believes the $600 - $800 million will happen. Somebody took profits whilst somebody is preparing for them. Not all the smart money can get in all at once and the smart money that did has to sometimes sell.
That's what my mind is thinking.
I've gone easier on Cramer over time. He's entertaining. And he does actually offer some good information, especially in macroeconomic trends and sentiment.
As in all things in life, there is a premium on being knowledgeable and sifting what others tell you. Especially in finance. Heck, even Warren Buffett's advice and methodologies are useless if the practitioner isn't disciplined about them.
More to the point, don't listen to Cramer lightening round. Listen when he discusses a rotation from growth into value. Listen how he consistently upholds IBM, particularly when invoking Buffett.
Ok, you and retailbaboon have short circuited what was a slippery slope into something more than I bargained for. Good to know about the Black & Scholes model.
Like I said...stay tuned.
I want the shares. Getting capital doesn't do me as good, given the potential opportunity cost once GTAT begins to climb. Hence, I'm going to sell some higher priced puts...which would be a 1st for me in this type of option.
And as I said, I probably will outright buy and hold shares. But as you discussed, I'll also have to temper my expectations of lows. Thanks for the advice!
That's my outlook as well. Be opportunistic on dips, letting the long term story play itself out. It really is no simpler than this.
More specifically, I'm looking to heavily add at a $10 - $12 range. I might be tempted in the $13's as well. Do any of you think these ranges will happen?
I think most of us are saying the same thing. GTAT will prosper in the long term. Probably as early as the last 3 months of this year, if it meets guidance in revenue.
I'm waiting patiently. But if I do have short term plan, it's too buy more shares in July and August. We might see $10 - $12 dips, although $13+ seems to be a "resistance" level.
We're in an ironic macroeconomic situation. The street and even retail investors suddenly are becoming more rational. They're actually putting a premium on value. GTAT is being associated with speculative momentum.
Fortunately, GTAT will be associated with proven growth...perhaps even value, sooner rather than later. I still maintain that GTAT is speculation. But selling products well received in sapphire and solar can change all that.
All the best fellow GTAT hopefuls.
As a long, this time I'm on the right side of wall street manipulation. I don't for a second believe that today's releases were coincidental. Some institutional interests don't want a pronounced downward move.
But god help the shorts if that $600 - $800 million guidance starts to materialize. Even an idealistic value investor like me knows not to oppose the tidal waves of wall street sentiment. Nor, as is obvious, to recognize and await a potential value company in the making.
I disagree. The correction is already happening, with specific bubbles slowly deflating. Momentum emergent tech stocks are an example
We might get away with a mild cyclical bear. But I maintain we're still on the cusp of at least a 10 year secular bull. We've been in a secular bear since 2000, nearing the end of a 14 year average. Also, nearly any 20 year period features a 6.x% inflation adjusted CAGR. Since 2000, it's been 1.x%, indicating 6 years to revert closer to the norm.
Technicals are good. But so are fundamentals. A domestic energy & manufacturing renaissance. Improving employment. Correcting income distribution with better jobs. Pent up US demand. Rising global middle classes.
GTAT will fall nicely within this framework, assuming its products are what they're touted to be.
Doc, that's a part of investing I've actually not fully mastered when it comes to individual stocks. Believe me, I will sell if any of my holdings if they become insanely overvalued. I'm not emotional about this.
But it's not as clear when a stock is at fair value or slightly overvalued. In this case, TRN looks like it can support growth for a few years out. I believe we're on the cusp of a secular bear, powered by a North American energy and manufacturing boom. We might get 1 last mild cyclical bear, but the overall future looks good for TRN.
Remember, it was my buy at cheap value and long hold that got me to a triple bagger today. Again, it's not easy selling a winner. Especially given the secular bull forecast.
If I see signs of a cyclical downturn in rails, sure, I might press the sell button. I would definitely appreciate your thoughts on this. Thanks.
I own 3050 shares at an average price of $9.09. I have another $20k - $30k I can commit. However, I'm still waiting, as I think we can go lower until $600 - $800 million revenue manifests itself this year.
I remain committed to GTAT as a long. However, I'm also a market veteran and understand well how wall street can shift sentiment. In this case, momentum stocks without profits are in wall street gun sights. Again, GTAT needs to show it's more than a momo, with a solid quarterly report.
I'm fishing for an ideal spot to buy in again. Comments welcome in this context.
I'm not selling because I might be wrong. We can just as easily go up from here in the near term and establish a more durable bottom. Although I am biased towards short term downward pressure, it would be an opportunity cost to make a mistake here and have to average in higher.
I'm more interested in optimally when to buy, not when to sell, if that makes sense.
Growth chasing is a real phenomenon. But it is predicated on 2 things: 1) a company must actually grow. 2) Wall street sentiment must actually favor growth chasing.
GTAT didn't show compelling growth, failing to hit forecasts, even if it was by 1%. Wall Street is right now rotating from momentum growth into hard value. We're also seeing a minor correction on the tail end of a cyclical bull, perhaps going into a mild cyclical bear.
For me, these are the ultimate factors behind GTAT falling hard from its highs. The rest are proximate. As others here can attest, I've consistently asserted volatility for an emergent company like GTAT. Especially on the basis of solar and sapphire markets that must materialize, never mind GTAT's products offering value within them.
Likewise, I continue to believe in the long story in GTAT. I think solar markets will slowly but surely materialize. I'm following secular trends here as well as companies like First Solar. GTAT is a worthy bet on this alone.
I also keep faith with the $600 - $800 million revenue guidance for this year. And sapphire making its debut on Apple products. These should and must be relatively short term catalysts, perhaps kicking in this September or later.
I'm holding 3050 shares averaged in at $9.09. I have about $20k I can commit. But I admit I am waiting for an even lower price at which to add.
Comments are welcome on what a low might be.