I'd say we're almost at candy store status.
I'll post later when I have time. But the bear is biting.
For now, I think $36 is a great time to start a new position in CBI.
I also would look into GLW. I think it's a solid buy. Dirt cheap. At a PE = 8, it is below 15, 10, 5, and 3 years PEs of 16, 12.4, 11.7, and 14.7. Yet solid earnings.
The PE trending indicates movement towards the longer term norms. For me, this is significant alpha. This is my core analytic method for identifying value. Obviously, you then have to look at cash flow, balance sheets, competition, and overall economy to ensure the business remains viable...that there is a future.
CBI and GLW are my largest commitments of basis. $26k in CBI, $20k in GLW. Again, I envy folks taking in new positions in these companies...as I think they'll do extremely well over the years.
In fact, I think CBI is as sure bet as there is. CBI certainly has a deeper moat than GLW. There is a significant barrier to entry with energy products. Nevertheless, I still think GLW will innovate new materials science products and also do well.
By the way, I also think INTC and CSCO are quality investments. They are cheap relative to longer term valuations. Solid cash flow and balance sheets. Both grew top line revenue and profit margins, beating expectations.
I for one believe both companies have strong moats. Of course, you might have your own ideas here. But if you think the business have a future, now's a good time to start accumulating.
They're not retail, but I can't think of too many retail stocks right now.
I did some buying these past few weeks. I bought 150 shares of DOW at $41.09; 60 shares of JNJ at $93.45; 100 shares of WFC at $52.33; 100 shares of XOM at $74.80; and 200 shares of SBRA at $26.87.
This is an interesting time. But I think we're near the worst of it. At least in aggregate. China, Greece, the fed, and oil are playing out. This may be a stiff correction or a cyclical bear. I can't tell for sure. But I am convinced we won't see 20% overall dip, more likely 10% - 15%.
As noted, I've started deploying my cash reserves. I have about $100k cash left. I'm very confident in my latest buys, as all are at deep to fair value. I definitely am waiting to go in more, especially in energy.
With energy, I'm waiting for $30/barrel or a stable bottom, whichever comes 1st. I plan on buying more of CBI and XOM. Maybe COP & MRO as new positions. I obviously entered XOM, as I'm seeing some glimmers of stability. But we will see.
Retail? I like JNJ & WMT right now. Again, I'm a value investor. I think there are good deals across sectors. In my view, this is the time to buy lower. I don't think the sky is falling.
As always, I'm prepared to hold a long time. I ultimately have faith in margin of safety investing, waiting for valuations to normalize. Fingers crossed.
I remain a holder of 900 shares averaged at a price of $16. I'm hoping for a positive outcome on the guardrails. As I've said in the past, I'd be a liar if I didn't acknowledge that this could end badly.
When politicians, lawyers, and frivolous plaintiffs get together, watch out. Especially when the class warfare is thrown. It's allegedly about rich executives killing regular folks and demanding restitution.
Don't get me wrong. I feel for those lost in accidents. But from all the public information, the guardrails are as reasonably safe as physics allows. They passed official tests. But the government and its crony interests are on a never ending fishing expedition to make guilt a self fulfilling prophecy.
Even in the US, there is a corruption factor that could materialize here. I hope not. Otherwise TRN is a superb company with excellent prospects. Hope it all ends well.
I'm remain a hold. My 426 shares at a $26k basis are now worth $19k, a 28% paper decline. I still have no worries, confident that CBI will crush the S&P500 over 5 years. I envy those whom don't have a position...as you can start with 1/3 or 1/4 increments.
I think the oil angle is valid. Right or wrong, CBI is associated with oil. I intend to buy big in energy once oil bottoms or reaching $30/barrel, whichever comes first. As with CBI, I'm down with my energy plays, DVN, DNOW, RDS-A, RDS-B, and NOV, some 25%, so I have to be cautious.
We're getting a nice rise today. But Iran is coming online. In the next year, I feel oil can go down a lot more. A friend of mine in the Texas oil industry described a panicky situation. Many companies are slashing spending, from majors to fracking upstarts. There will be bankruptcies and consolidation. There could be dividend cuts. But North American energy will survive and be dominant, outlasting OPEC in this game of solvency.
I will average down in CBI and DVN. I will buy new into XOM, MRO, and COP. Again, I need a fairly stable bottom. I believe there will be plenty of time to get a good deal.
This doesn't answer his question about positive cash flow.
Assuming they did make $1.5 billion, did they make a profit? Or as the poster stated, did they have to dip into cash on hand to cover expenses?
Believe me, I want to own AKS. But I am not sure about bankruptcy. I had a small $3k position, but got stopped out for a quick profit. I don't normally trade, but invest.
But for me to commit bigger money as an investment, I need to have a better idea of burn rate. For now, it's too uncertain and too risky but to trade with baby money.
I think you're actually reinforcing my points, especially in highlighting ascending North American oil production prominence and how dependent Saudi Arabia is as whole on this commodity.
Kidding aside, it's all good. There are many possible explanations. But I ultimately fall back on Occam's Razor. SA did this in the 1980s. There is precedent.
Like you, I'm ultimately waiting for the bottom to materialize. I think there will be plenty of time to buy once on a lifetime energy positions. Fingers crossed.
I don't buy the Iran-Russia angle. Iran already has a functioning economy. Keeping oil down won't hurt it anymore than it is hurting now. Russia is a whole different story, possessing natural and human resources that can withstand a blip in a single commodity.
No, the Saudis rightfully fear North American shale. For one, it's in our economic interest to be as energy independent as possible. Never mind national security, especially considering the role SA plays in Islamic radicalism.
In summary, I don't believe we or the Saudis are prepared to sacrifice our economy just to keep down the economy of Iran. If only geopolitics were that simple.
To your point, the current price cannot be sustained. By anybody. At some point, all players will break. But some quicker than others. Again, I think SA will break before North American energy...as we're talking the direct risk of a nation versus companies...with the US facing an indirect risk vis-a-vis oil, given our diverse economy.
When this settles, then CBI can stabilize and start to normalize in valuation.
CBI remains a matter of time. Right now we're caught in a confluence of events: China, Greece, slowing corporate top line revenues, a possible fed hike, and especially the fall of oil. We're probably in a cyclical bear market.
Once the smoke clears, and it will, a company like CBI remains high odds to beat the indices. It would take a real outlier to produce any other outcome. When you really think about it, CBI is energy infrastructure...any energy infrastructure, not just oil land gas.
My main misgiving is Buffett selling some shares. He's gotten of pure energy altogether. I wonder why? He's an astute investor and commands a certain authority. My hope is that he keeps his still substantial position in CBI.
I'm holding. I'm now down 25% on a $25k basis. I'm waiting for an oil bottom to average down. For me, it comes down to Saudi Arabia breaking in their price war. I still feel they will...as I think North American labor elasticity, capital liquidity, technology, and supply chain optimization can outlast the Saudis. I don't see a repeat of the 80s.
To be sure, some energy companies will go belly up. But that will make western survivors even stronger. This time, I believe the Saudis have dug a hole for themselves. They got their low prices. But they're bleeding money, need $75 - $100 per barrel to fund national ops.
When prices rise, the North Americans will elastically scale back up...always waiting opportunistically. Regardless, CBI remains well positioned. That's my bet.
You bring up some excellent points that should serve as due warning to the extreme risk with AKS. When I last checked in early June, AKS had $3 billion in debt and $50 million cash on hand. They also had $4 - $5 billion in asset worth. I imagine they are servicing debt with cash on hand, which is diminishing at some rate due to no net earnings. This MUST bring up the specter of bankruptcy.
AKS for me is sheer speculation. Funny enough, my 1000 shares I bought yesterday are now up 18%. Volatile much? Wow!
I'm gambling on the government intervening just in time. Mind you, I'll probably add stops to secure some profit. Normally I am value investor, but I use a small % of my portfolio to gamble this way.
Lastly, I don't agree with you that there is no way for AKS to make money. Again, if the government intervenes, it should change the equation. Steel isn't pot, where it can be shipped in and delivered clandestinely.
You all make some good points about volatility. Not to get into an ideological war, but I don't believe in technical analysis. Yes, it works, but I see this as coincidental luck, failing more often than not.
Regardless, I correlate volatility to the crisis in China and the associated commodity crash, not to mention steel dumping. There are some signs we are getting nearer to fleshing things out. If so...then AKS becomes a cyclically positive play, meaning it's time to be an investor.
Again, I just can't see it swinging wildly like it did at the end of 2013...not unless there are solid fundamentals...which is what I am looking for.
Last point of clarification: I concede that AKS is for me a speculative investment right now. Not a value play. I don't wager most of my portfolio on stocks like this one...but I'm hopeful that things will turn around and that AKS won't go belly up.
I remain confident that the next 18 months we'll see $65/share. If higher, all the better. In my book, CBI remains one of the most compelling companies out there right now.
We're due for a cyclical bear. China has crashed. Commodities are plunging. There's an oil price war.
Aggregate corporate earnings however, have grown 6%+, if you take out energy. That speaks to the strength of the secular bull market we're in...which should commence once the cyclical bear issues are resolved.
As it does, CBI will positively correct.
$10 to $11 a share? Look, I get that there's a lot of wishful thinking on Yahoo message boards. But a near 4x bagger in a few months is beyond wishful.
I'll be content with AKS simply turning business around. I just SPECULATIVELY bought 1000 shares. I'll be adding more if I see business conditions improving.
I bought 1000 shares of AKS at $2.80 today. And 400 shares of MT at $8.98 a few weeks ago. I've spent $6k of $20k I have allocated for steel, so I'll add opportunistically, with discipline.
China is experiencing a massive crash. Their excess is flooding the market. Iron ore has near bottomed. Global economies look set to enter a cyclical bear market. Suffice it to say, commodities are under severe pressure...and aside from oil, which is obfuscated due to the Saudi price war factor, I think we're at a near bottom.
Today's earnings makes me more comfortable that AKS won't go belly up. It should weather this storm and get back to a fair valuation, once the steel cycle ramps up again. And it will, given that I fully believe we're in the earlier stages of a longer term secular bull market. Things just have to sort themselves out. I have no pretense of knowing how long this will take...but I like to think I'm buying deep value in AKS and MT with my recent purchases.
Lastly, as I've posted before, I think steel is a matter of national security. I have no crystal ball, but I have to believe the US government won't let our steel companies go out of business...although I admit this doesn't preclude bankruptcy. But all in all, I think we're past the point of insolvency being likely.
It's a guess. A pure guess. We have no real mathematical basis for determining this.
In contrast, there is lots of math supporting TRN as value: PE, PEG, PS, PB, ROIC, cash flow, and balance sheets. It's valuations are well below trailing N year averages.
How do you ever put odds on how a lawsuit will go? Maybe I'm more cynical as I get older? But I am deeply suspicious of a legal system and a government that has allowed what to me seems like a greater degree of corruption than ever before.
A lot of financially pressed interests see TRN as a convenient target. I won't rest easily until this is fully resolved...albeit I am holding my shares through it...on a pure hunch that all will be ok. That's all I have...a hunch.
The market is broken. Not CBI. I'll chime in again with my usual mantra: price must track earnings.
I still believe this is a great time to accumulate CBI. I'm averaged in at $61 or so, a basis of $25k. I remain confident if beating the S&P500 within 18 months. At the very least, I believe the price of oil will stabilize during this period, helping CBI to normalize...and I also believe overvalued social, mobile, and cloud computing companies will have faced their day of reckoning as well...further reinforcing companies that really make money.
Stocks trade with greater volatility that is more quickly moved by sentiment. Right now sentiment is suspect about CBI. But as I said, strong fundamentals will correct what I think is the irrationality of the herd here, not to mention wall street rigging.
Coincidentally, it's the same with steel. I bought into MT. I'm looking hard at AKS, NUE, and X. Although, to be fair, some of these steels can go bankrupt during this cyclical crash of steel.
All the best.
I kept my shares. But I have no illusions about foresight. Like you, I'm getting lucky...especially that the lawsuit isn't materializing into anything concrete yet.
I hope it stays that way. If so, sure, TRN is a serious long term winner. But the winds of politics can turn quickly. And TRN hasn't extricated itself from these winds.
I'm up 2x. I was once up near 4x. I'd love to see that again. Fingers crossed.