IBM is after all a company about "machines". It will a sad day when IBM no longer makes machines, but instead is a pure software play. I've long touted and had faith in IBM, not least in 100+ years of R&D and financial excellence.
Not to be cute, but I feel IBM will be in deep jeopardy if this comes to pass. Ironically, Watson was realized with IBM Power chips. I feel that this electric engineering centric mentality is the least common denominator in producing seminal R&D: be it electrical engineer, math, or pure computer science.
I might be wrong, but I think IBM management has it very wrong on this.
No. Not in the grand scheme of things. I prefer executives to be compensated once they have established solid & sustainable revenue, earnings, and market presence. I've never understood why an inner circle must get paid in advance, simply to oversee the journey.
I believe the CEO of SalesForce has cashed in at least $500 million in stock. But his company simply doesn't make money and probably never will. Same for many emergent cloud computing companies. Odds are high for serious bag holders here, typically retail investors.
In contrast, companies like Microsoft were built steadily, with folks like Bill Gates keeping their stock. Valuations never got out of control. Let's just say the leadership put their money where their mouths were. They made serious money for their shareholders, employees, and then themselves. Classic way to build a company.
As a shareholder, such I'd rather not see so much selling by leadership at so tenuous a stage of company development. But I suppose I'm old fashioned and that things are really different now. Right?
Here is my full disclosure:
1st position trade_date shares total_cost price/share
08/16/2012 100.00 $544.95 $5.45
08/17/2012 400.00 $2,605.91 $6.51
12/18/2012 650.00 $1,994.89 $3.07
02/11/2014 100.00 $1,109.00 $11.09
02/11/2014 100.00 $1,109.00 $11.09
02/11/2014 200.00 $2,218.00 $11.09
trade_date shares total_cost price/share
1/30/2014 100 $1,024.00 $10.24
1/30/2014 200 $2,048.00 $10.24
1/30/2014 500 $5,120.00 $10.24
1/30/2014 200 $2,056.95 $10.28
Avg Price: $7.78
Fingers crossed folks.
You are the kind of typical internet coward, thriving on conflict under the cover of anonymity. Certified analyst? Rumors? Wow, so now sharing one's deductive thinking on free forums using one's freedom of speech is illegal.
Coward. Too many cowards in our society.
Under the pretext of illuminating an alleged pump and dump, you're simply gratuitously taunting people. You're not fooling nobody in this regard. Give it a rest already.
If you want to debate like a gentleman, do so. Given the lack of quality that characterizes most Yahoo chat boards, take advantage of one where the debate is relatively more civil and informed. All the best.
Chelle, now that us GTAT hopefuls are a virtual family, we virtually care for one another. Hence we worry about what your angst is doing to you. Emotional swinging to the beat of GTAT volatility might give you too many bad hair days.
Relax. Think positive secular dreams. Think high volume deliveries on any margin. Buy yourself sapphire jewelry. Like Rose in the Titanic...don't ever let go.
Not to gloat, but I was lucky enough to initially average at $4.40 and now $7.78 on a $20k basis overall. This is simply spectacular. For all of us.
I'm thankful. We live in a great country. We have access to tools, information, & discourse like this that helps us make money. I again thank those 4 persistent nut jobs: Cali, Mungee, Kent, & Haschultz.
May our turbulent but very profitable virtual friendship continue! Cheers...to GTAT!
Again, I will assume you are Nania from SA or one of what I suspect are multiple people under your MF account. I'm being diplomatic when I say that your conjectures are just as negative as the most positive conjectures here. And they come with an even greater tone of arrogance.
Believe me, I have a thick skin, put the emotions aside, and actually objectively weigh your thoughts. You & I have some history on MF. Well, you were always wrong when both of us made forecasts. Mine came to fruition, whereas yours didn't.
I made significant gains in GTAT with my long & hold strategy versus your short term, quasi-technical analysis. I absolutely won over our disagreements on GLW. Ironically, you now use GWL to argue against GTAT.
Like I explained to you from the start, you have no more a command of short term reality than the most astute and seasoned wall street traders. And they too are very limited to what they can achieve short term. We're all ultimately making deductive bets on GTAT...in defiance of inductive odds that make success a low probability for any emergent company.
But I'll take the positive deductive call on GTAT. As always, I have investing patience and endurance. I'm averaged in at $7 a share and have plenty more money to throw in.
Lastly, let's keep it civil. We can only profit by exchanging ideas without the emotional frills.
I've come to the conclusion that Cramer does more harm than good. He can be illuminating when he's measured and calm. But this seldom happens, as he's mostly in huckster mode.
I know he's mostly an entertainer, but he ultimately does mislead. Last night was the particularly bad, with his hypocritical views on voodoo accounting. He'll justify voodoo accounting for favorites, but yet call into question growth on a moat.
I also saw a video of him criticizing Warren Buffett. Cramer blasted Buffett for not engaging in financial engineering with BRK. Cramer claimed that Buffett had obligation to make as much money as fast as possible...and therein lies the problem.
Anybody listening to Cramer is a fool. You really have to sift his words with a fine toothed comb.
Interestingly enough, most chat boards are a cesspool of partisan demagoguery and voodoo economics. It's kind of sad what this implies about so much of humanity, not to get over dramatic here. But as our experiences here attest, an intelligent and open minded person can use these kinds of boards to their investing advantage.
It's a supreme irony that my greatest gains in the shortest amount of time might come from this Yahoo Finance interaction. Like I said, normally Yahoo is a cesspool. But look at the hidden gem that is GTAT I found here...amidst all you fellow fools.
I post often enough as a crude form of sentiment analysis. If something strikes my fancy, I go deeper. And if things really go well, you get folks like Mungee...even a nut job like Cali, whom is crude and a bit lucky, but also skilled in honing in on and articulating the luck most likely to materialize.
I'll say it again: we live in a great country with great opportunities & tools to get wealthy...as this exercise in crude crowd sourcing proves. I thank all of you for getting me sucked in...as now that I'm wet, the water feels good!
No problem with shorting. HFT is another matter, as it's basically technologically & legally enabled front running. There is no reason to allow some institutions to get trade data intrinsically faster than others.
Even if it is tiny fractions on each dollar traded, it adds up & increases volatility.
What about low level materials science? How about graphene? How about quantum computing?
You don't just do these things abstractly, like with software development.
Mungee, I like you and appreciate your efforts in the analysis on GTAT. But at the risk of offending you, I'm going to give you some advice. You're in danger of publicly compromising yourself by being sucked into contest of wits.
Don't underestimate the ability of people to cast aspersion in a day & age of fast social & mobile networking. If you send this joker an email contesting academic background & pedigree, he can use it publicly to paint you as somebody with a chip on his shoulder. That is as bad as being an elitist.
If I were you, I'd stick to public retorts: factual, calm, and based on objective facts and analysis, as you have up to now. Especially if you have aspirations of getting into the business for a decent firm. Again, don't take the bait. Keep up the good work. All the best.
I did this from my Roth IRA. I'm convinced that there is enough momentum to ensure growth in the coming year. Institutions are moving in. Confirmation bias I guess.
I now have a $15k basis here. I'm prepared to average down if it slips...which I hope happens, as I am a long after all...and starting to see some serious potential. Let's hope sapphire crystallizes.
I agree with you. I'm in both. I have a $15k basis in GTAT, a $25k basis in GLW.
But I am going to weight more in GTAT at opportune times. I'm growing more confident GTAT will become a true growth stock. All we need is a positive revenue and earnings quarter, consistently building from there to catalyze a real run.
This speaks loudest. I believe Vanguard also took a significant position. Heck, the fact that an otherwise conservative value investor like me also is in GTAT resonates.
Just kidding. My only negative in the whole picture so far is insider compensation & selling. It doesn't obviate the positives. Heck, the CEO of SalesForce hasn't hurt his company's growth by cashing in $500 million so far. But given that SalesForce makes no profit and is on course for a severe correction one day, well, I hope you see my point.
I prefer that leaders lead by example in having faith in their company by holding and even buying. I don't want to get too far off topic, but it's a problem with many companies in the US.
Zacks by the way is typical of the combination of market manipulation, ignorance, and legal but unethical theft that involves a collusion of analysts, actively managed funds, ibanks, hedge funds, private equity, and venture capital. Nuff said. As is obvious, do your own research, analysis, and decision making...using the cynicism of institutional interests to your advantage.
I don't understand why so many posters are so decisively positive with GTAT. Again, look at the cash flow, balance sheet, and income situation. This is not by any means a sure bet, especially with solar & sapphire markets in a tenuous state.
I've been in GTAT for over 1 year, averaged in at $4.40. I even foolishly listened to some of you to not sell when we hit recent highs, even though I knew we'd continue to see serious volatility.
Yes, I have high hopes for GTAT. I remain a long term hold. But what I've consistently noted still holds: we're seriously gambling here. There are not yet any compelling fundamentals or proven financials that warrant anything but the safest of investments. Well, I have that safety at $4.40. I'm not so crazy to put in any more at these levels.
I really have to wonder who even bought at $9.5+. Why not wait for more tangible financial evidence? And no, the Apple deal isn't this. All it essentially did was validate GTAT technology. It didn't do anything financially other than extend GTAT's operating runway. There is no guarantee of purchases, only that debt has to be repaid.
So we come full circle to my core point: the solar & sapphire markets remain tenuous. Even in the long term. There are decent odds that GTAT could go belly up before these markets develop. There are certainly energy alternatives to solar. You also have GLW with gorilla & willow glass, not to mention it's own capabilities to leverage sapphire...mind you, demand isn't even heavy here.
I'm holding. But I admit this is a hope & prayer. GTAT has good technology. But I have no idea if it has the enough runway to wait out the development of solar & sapphire markets.
All the best. Fingers crossed.
The 0% interest is a positive point. But you made a salient observation, namely that capital investment in production scale up capability will pay off if there is demand.
My point is that it isn't at all clear if there will be such demand. And if there isn't from Apple, I'm not convinced Apple won't contest GTAT selling to others.
I still see this deal as a minor hedge for Apple. From everything I can tell, Apple too sees sapphire as a tenuous market. I'm not saying it won't happen. I'm just saying that it's nebulous...and consequently GTAT is a risky investment.
As I said earlier, I usually value invest, with a financially quantifiable margin of safety. I'm just saying GTAT is not one of these investments...and that I'm investing in faith that GTAT being deep in solar & sapphire supply chains will mean a multi-bagger if these markets, pun intended, crystallize.
I remain a hold, but am open to arguments in favor of investing more. Fingers crossed.