I own 152 shares of RDS-B averaged at $70.89/share. So I'm down some 12%. Even if it's not a bargain like CBI, it's still a very good long term value. I think it's also a solid anchor in any portfolio.
I just can't do TSLA. It's not an age thing. It's, as usual with me, all about value. To be sure, I gamble occasionally. I did it with GTAT, successfully riding the hype before it tanked.
TSLA for me is in that category. It can go belly up. I get that it's well financed, but the amounts of money committed and lost so far are enormous. I still can't see them becoming a huge player...not with BMW, Ford, and so always ready to move into any emerging automobile market.
I'm looking at steel right now. It's basically crashed. AKS, VALE, MT, and BHP have caught me attention. I've eliminated VALE. I might start with MT and BHP.
The main thing is determine how long the steel glut and low price of iron ore will last. I'm mulling it over.
CBI was as sure a value play as there ever was. When it hit $32, it absolutely was ideal for an opening position. You don't get so many opportunities in an investing career.
I remain long on a basis of $25k. I'm down 7.3%, around $2k. No big deal. As I keep chiming in, I expect to CRUSH the S&P500 within the next 18 months.
Value is value. We're seeing it come back to value. Be patient.
It might take more time. But I'm expecting to crush the S&P500 in the next 18 - 36 months with CBI. I'm averaged in at about $61 on a $25k basis.
Propaganda is an exercise in posting a combination of truths and lies. Of course, effective propaganda takes skill...and is at least entertaining. His isn't.
I still don't get why legions of posters do such things. Especially with finance. I can get political venting. But moving a market with inane chatter?
It's a free board. Each to his own.
Anyway, TRN looks partially recovered. The litigation remains a threat. But I'm still holding my 927.35 shares...on faith in the odds that TRN won't see a catastrophic settlement.
Why folks like you persist in polluting discussions is beyond me. You're just not going to materially impact sentiment this way. Shorts vs longs? It's all noise...which real investors filter.
I am tempted to call it a witch hunt. But I ultimately have to be scientific about this...which means, I simply have no idea.
Mind you, a line in the sand has been crossed. It's a bold and market impacting initiative for the DOJ to engage in a corruption accusation. When the smoke clears, it should be clear if there was legitimate due cause or if this was indeed a witch hunt.
If it's the latter, then somebody should be punished. You just can't ad-hoc make a negative statement about a company. The volatility and manipulation implications are obvious. And given what I observe to be increasing corruption in our country, I'm wary. I actually am more skeptical of the DOJ than TRN here...but that's my bias.
I'm still holding my shares. But I continue to concede this remains a concern.
Here's my frame of reference.
Did TRN run a clean and honest business and is now facing an unfair investigation that is essentially a witch hunt?
Or did TRN not run a clean and honest business and is now facing a deserved investigation?
I think the odds are higher for the former rather than the latter. Especially given the heavy scrutiny.
I'm glad my threshold wasn't tested. I'd really hate to sell. TRN is really a great company. Rail transport is an important industry, providing a serious barrier to entry...a decent moat if there ever was one.
But this episode shows how outlier events can distort and potentially ruin any company.
I've no rational answer than to say: I just don't know what is going on.
This simply sucks.
I'm averaged at $16 or so. I really want to hold. But I need to preserve capital...and I fear the irrationality of both the herd and the government.
This has really turned out unfortunately so far. I still feel nothing egregious has been committed, but sentiment apparently might keep driving the price down. We need clarity on the DOJ investigation.
Seeking Alpha is excellent. It can give you vital information. Emphasis on the word "can".
Like with everything in life, you ultimately make the final decision. Especially investing. Hence, if you can't verify, then don't trust what you read. In a financial context, this means sticking with index investing if you can't properly read and analyze financial data and articles, never mind fundamental stock analysis.
As for Seeking Alpha, its greatest value to me is in the comments. There are enough quality posters to quickly vet out fools or those with an agenda. The posters also tend to produce extra information.
The cited article is a good one. With the comments, it indeed identifies TRN as deep value. Unfortunately, nothing can clear the air about alleged government legal action...as things remain nebulous.
I'm holding my TRN stock. I think the odds are in my favor. But there are odds TRN might have committed fraud, really unlikely...or that the government might engage in some corruption, which is my chief fear.
You are issuing platitudes, arguing for the sake of arguing.
True believers? Sure, I experienced massive group think when I correctly pulled out of GTAT. A lot of folks went down with that ship. I based my thinking on objective facts and analysis, as opposed to wishful thinking...as I'm doing with TRN, which I posted in other threads.
You should try a similar approach.
I don't want to be harsh. But you really come off as ignorant in ignoring many posts explaining the situation. Never mind invoking the old true believer canard.
We all agree that there is a legal threat. But most of us also agree that it seems like a witch hunt at this point. Especially considering the tests conducted by the FHWA. Especially considering that the legal defense team of Harmon are major campaign contributors to Blumenthal.
If there is corruption, odds are actually that it's Harmon, his defense team, and Blumenthal. Yes, there are minor odds that there really was an egregious bribe against TRN...but as we're discussing, the known facts don't seem to make this likely.
Well, as we're all seeing, these things take a life of their own.
It was the same thing when Prescient Point called CBI earnings "smoke and mirrors". With a short position. The price plunged.
It was further exacerbated by a timely oil price decline. The swing went from $80 - $32 - $50. The power of sentiment.
I fully confident with CBI. There are no legal issues. Value investing still trumps manipulation in the longer run.
But here with TRN, we unfortunately have to contend with legal manipulation...assuming it's true. I'm still holding, but as I keep posting, there is some greater risk now, even if I believe TRN is innocent. So far.
I'm playing the odds based on a positive guess. I'm guessing there were no bribes. I'm guessing the tests are valid. I'm guessing that corruption won't manifest itself from the DOJ...the latter being for me the chief danger.
I agree. But there has to be due cause in order to commence with such an investigation. It shouldn't be done just because one didn't get the result one wanted with previous accusations.
TRN was exonerated in independent testing. Which was ratified by government agencies. They were essentially cleared.
But somebody seems to be on a never ending fishing expedition to make what they want to believe is true a self fulfilling prophesy. It's obvious to me at this point who is corrupt here. As I posted before, we live in a great country overall...but rule of law is increasingly being challenged.
I'll eat my words and apologize if I am egregiously wrong. I just can't see it right now. The facts and analysis seem to exonerate TRN.
Lastly, I studied up on Blumenthal. I don't want to cast aspersion. But he's been accused of misrepresenting his military history to have served in Vietnam...as opposed to having served stateside in a reserve unit.
I'm a former US Army officer. I served in a time when there was relative peace. I would never compare myself to those who served in sustained combat. You just don't do such things...but Blumenthal does.
I remain a hold. I have to trust the FHWA. And what I know about physics and the tests, not that this is decisive.
But I acknowledge that strong a country as we have, corruption sometimes wins. It's all a matter of degree. As I've posted in the past, there is always the possibility of an outlier decision against TRN here...against logic, against fairness, against the spirit of the law.
I've learned humanity has a considerable amount of dregs, sorry to be so harsh. There are always people and organizations trying to get something for nothing. Even in situations where the highest integrity should be demanded, in this case, our system of litigation.
I'll say one thing for sure: I hope I never have to be judged by a jury of "my peers". A lot of peers are mean, jealous, vindictive...and not insignificantly driven by ideology. Imagine a group of citizens asked to pass verdict on a corporate interest of the so called 1%.
Yeah, I know this is partly a diatribe. But also an acknowledgement that there is risk in TRN. Nevertheless, like I said, I'm holding...and once again crossing my fingers.
1 clarification: I haven't bought anything recently in energy, even though I believe we've hit a bottom. I already am significantly invested at value and likewise exposed.
Like I said, I'm now thinking hard about CAT. I still think INTC is a good tech buy, but I own a lot already...and it's spiked the past few days.
I'm in what I consider to be attractive valuation quality stocks. I really can't find much compelling other than what we discussed. But I'm also open for tips.
Your sense of timing is fortuitous. You're going to do extremely well with both CBI and RDS-B.
I think we've now hit a near oil bottom. I haven't bought anything. But as I said earlier, most of my energy based selections are doing well or will do so in due time...as valuations will normalize.
I'm now eying CAT. I might start a position, having correctly sold last year for a 20% gain. It clearly is undervalued. But I haven't assessed if it has further to go, as commodity cycles are hard to read in this context...given that CAT mines virtually everything.
Still, with energy relatively lower, why wouldn't countries like China and India naturally take advantage and continue infrastructure roll out. Something also tells me the US will boost infrastructure investment as well...both as a business multiplier and jobs catalyst...although that might be attributing too much intelligence to a nice, but often incompetent government here.
Low oil does several things. It fights inflation. And oil bonds are in greater jeopardy due to diminished earnings. Ironically, international buyers still want US fixed income instruments. Throw on top of this a strong dollar.
The fed has the luxury of softly raising rates, if at all. Money will remain cheap for some time to come. This helps North American oil better withstand the Saudi price war.
I like TRN, DVN, and RDS-B right now. TRN especially. The trick is to make sure we've hit a bottom in oil.
But as I said, in the long run, oil is king. No way will prices stay this low. There simply are not price compelling alternatives.
The market speaks loudest to me here. If a technology and commodity are compelling, the big boys will move in. When cars developed, not many businesses argued for staying with horses.
If solar, nuclear, and battery were indeed truly parity competitive, they'd be adopted by the energy supply chain in mass. Oil & natural gas remain the dominant form of cheap, efficient, and flexible energy...and probably will for decades.