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Trinity Industries Inc. Message Board

banmate7 54 posts  |  Last Activity: Jan 21, 2015 1:18 PM Member since: Jun 7, 1999
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  • Reply to

    I No Longer Recommend IBM

    by banmate7 Jan 20, 2015 6:19 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Jan 21, 2015 1:18 PM Flag

    Yep. It's grim.

  • I am grimly holding my IBM stock. I'm only about 11% down, so it's not a disaster. But I have little faith Ginni and co can turn things around.

    It's not technology or talent. IBM has a range of technology products and perhaps the deepest R&D and engineering bench of all. It still has impressive financials.

    The problem is a top down financial engineering culture that degrades bottom up technology innovation. The best engineering, sales, and marketing folks can't easily take the initiative to develop, test, & deliver cutting edge products. On top of that, IBM treats employees pretty badly in comparison to more enlightened and generous technology companies.

    Bottom line: top IBM employees leave to go to Google, Facebook, even Oracle and SAP. The reverse doesn't happen. Management doesn't seem to have a clue here. Time is running out to fix things.

    I worked at IBM for 2 years after my company was acquired. I wanted to stay. But there simply was to much compelling opportunity to put up with cynical cost cutting gimmicks.

    Believe me, I want IBM to succeed. It has a great machines heritage. Iconic US company. It would be a shame for IBM to fail.

    It's not enough to be an IAAS & PAAS company. IBM needs cutting edge SAAS. It's not enough to be a services company, offering components to create systems. IBM needs cutting edge finished applications: social, mobile, & cloud...never mind analytics, big data, & other buzzwordy stuff.

    I've long touted IBM. Again, I have no more faith in Ginni and her management team. They're ultimately business development people, not technologists. Sad.

  • banmate7 banmate7 Jan 14, 2015 10:40 AM Flag

    It's a waiting game. As I've posted before, I've played it before. Now, especially because of diminished lawsuit threats, TRN is really a solid value.

    It's a question of when, not if, TRN will normalize to at least a PE of 11. There is considerable upside. Obviously, the markets can stay irrational for some time...so you need to invest and wait accordingly.

    I'm waiting for an oil bottom. That's when I will start buying a range of at value companies associated with energy. Then, like I said, it's a waiting game. In fact, I think it's the only way to achieve significant alpha consistently over the S&P500.

    All the best.

  • Reply to

    State of Indian Judges in Favor of TRN

    by banmate7 Jan 9, 2015 4:36 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Jan 10, 2015 11:57 AM Flag

    @Joe

    Be careful. I'm not saying the issue is 100% nipped in the bud. These things are encouraging, raising the odds of a successful conclusion.

    But you know the deal when it comes to money, predatory lawyers, class actions, and frivolous lawsuits. Justice isn't always served. There's always a chance greed, corruption, and sheer jealousy might prevail...particularly if this is played from a class warfare angle.

    Like I you, I'm holding. I might even buy in more. I'm waiting for an oil bottom.

  • Reply to

    State of Indian Judges in Favor of TRN

    by banmate7 Jan 9, 2015 4:36 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Jan 9, 2015 11:44 PM Flag

    There is more good news. Google for an article titled "Trinity Guardrail Study Finding Fatal Flaw Faulted in New Review". Apparently, the initial tests used to find problems with the guardrails were not actually valid.

    Supposedly there is a test going on right now at an independent San Francisco lab. With the Indiana ruling and the news in my opening paragraph, I'm hoping the San Francisco study exonerates TRN.

    If so...watch out! This is highly undervalued.

  • Reply to

    State of Indian Judges in Favor of TRN

    by banmate7 Jan 9, 2015 4:36 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Jan 9, 2015 7:11 PM Flag

    Me neither. I found it in SA. But this definitely makes me breathe easier.

    I own 920.772 shares of TRN. Actually, my average price is $16.97, as I added about $5k worth at $36/share 6 weeks ago. I thought my average was $13, but I'm still significantly up.

    I really was ahead at $50. Maybe I should have used stop losses. Still, I am confident of seeing $50+ in the next 12 - 18 months...which would be near a 4x bagger on my initial positions.

    Assuming the guardrail issue gets positively resolved...which I believe is likely...TRN will still crush the S&P500, which is my ultimate investment objective.

  • My previous post got deleted. Probably because of a link to an article it contained. Anyway, the state of Indian today judged that there are no inherent dangers with TRN guardrails. You can google for it.

    I'd say this is crucial. It definitely lessens the odds of a catastrophic judgement against TRN...which for me, is the ONLY real cause for doubt here.

    Otherwise, I am extremely confident in TRN. Even with oil issues. Suffice it to say, I believe oil will be $75/barrel within the next 12 - 18 months. Hence, I am holding my shares, reinvesting dividends, and plan on selling covered calls.

    Fingers crossed.

  • Reply to

    Time to sell?

    by bridgejumper08 Jan 9, 2015 9:37 AM
    banmate7 banmate7 Jan 9, 2015 4:26 PM Flag

    Same here. I have an average share price of around $13. So for me it's a waiting game.

    However, check out my thread on this board. There was a positive decision made by the state of Indiana on TRN guardrail safety.

  • banmate7 banmate7 Jan 8, 2015 1:53 PM Flag

    I've crushed the S&P500 with quite a few investments that the street disdained for long periods of time. Notable ones include MSFT, KO, JNJ, GLW, and CNI. I expect nothing different with CBI. As is famously said, the market can be irrational.

    True, I got caught a bit by this oil downturn. I have 425.95 shares on a $25k basis currently worth $17k. I'm currently down 32%. However, I remain confident that fair value is around $90/share/.

    I'm also going to stay disciplined about averaging down. I want to commit $5k - $10 again. But only when oil has bottomed.

  • Reply to

    Don't understand the gloom

    by minerplay Jan 5, 2015 11:48 AM
    banmate7 banmate7 Jan 8, 2015 1:46 PM Flag

    You made a great decision. I envy you. Excellent timing.

    I'm averaged in at $63 a share. But I remain confident that CBI will beat the S&P500 by a good clip in the coming 12 - 18 months...this even in what I consider a secular bull market.

    Oil will continue to dominate for the next 50 years. For that matter, energy will always be a dominant market force. And CBI is energy in general, not just oil.

    As a number of us discussed in previous posts, it's just a matter of time for CBI to normalize to its supported valuations. Excepting an outlier, which is the case for any investment. Patience and discipline will bear results here.

  • Reply to

    I hate to say it - But

    by dhudson100 Dec 30, 2014 4:22 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Jan 6, 2015 1:27 PM Flag

    Obviously everything I said flew right over your head. You just won't come to grips with the concept of comparative risk.

    Jeez.

  • Reply to

    I hate to say it - But

    by dhudson100 Dec 30, 2014 4:22 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Jan 6, 2015 1:26 PM Flag

    The same thing you are, giving my perspective.

    As for whom is an idiot, I think most folks can judge for themselves.

    :)

  • Reply to

    I hate to say it - But

    by dhudson100 Dec 30, 2014 4:22 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Jan 5, 2015 5:02 PM Flag

    I hope he does. When somebody is so arrogantly willful about jumping off a cliff...let him do it.

    But others shouldn't mimic such tom foolery. GTATQ is more likely to burn you than GTAT.

  • Reply to

    I hate to say it - But

    by dhudson100 Dec 30, 2014 4:22 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Jan 5, 2015 5:01 PM Flag

    Trust me, I quantify everything I do with investing. Especially risk. Let's just say I've worked in trading, credit, and market risk as a software engineer.

    As such, you're off your rocker if you equate the risk in over concentrating in GTAT with diversifying in solid companies. Especially when the latter are bought at value, as I've illustrated. Again, I was consistent in stating such risk on this chat board and on SA...which other posters can corroborate.

    Anyway, this is all investing 101. Most astute investors and learners understand that GTAT committed fraud. Not Apple. And that GTAT was always a much greater risk than Apple...never mind a basket of diversified strong stocks.

    Consider value investing. It takes but high school arithmetic and some patience. Best of luck.

  • Reply to

    I hate to say it - But

    by dhudson100 Dec 30, 2014 4:22 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Jan 5, 2015 3:40 PM Flag

    By the way, I got out of GTAT on time. I made $14k on a $27k basis. I too had some irrational exuberance, but ultimately stayed disciplined with regards to:

    1) Diversification
    2) Risk
    3) And signs emerging of fraud.

    You can check my posting history here and on SA. I posted in advance my positions and sales. And my diversification in APPL and GLW, both which I still own and have done very well...affirming that despite crooks like TG and GTAT, there are good companies led by ethical captains of industry.

    Short AAPL? Right. I'm going to short immense positive cash flow, balance sheets, world class R&D, and proven dominance in a range of products. And perhaps go into GTATQ.

    Please.

  • Reply to

    I hate to say it - But

    by dhudson100 Dec 30, 2014 4:22 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Jan 5, 2015 3:33 PM Flag

    Here are my AAPL investments:

    date shares total price $/share
    10-Nov-2010 217 $9,807.43 $45.20 basis
    16-Aug-2012 0.91 $82.15 $90.27 div
    15-Nov-2012 1.09 $82.49 $75.54 div
    14-Feb-2013 1.24 $82.91 $66.92 div
    16-May-2013 1.55 $95.96 $62.03 div
    15-Aug-2013 1.36 $96.64 $71.16 div
    14-Nov-2013 1.29 $97.23 $75.49 div
    29-Jan-2014 49 $3,510.07 $71.63 basis
    29-Jan-2014 14 $1,000.32 $71.45 basis
    29-Jan-2014 7 $500.16 $71.45 basis
    13-Feb-2014 1.66 $128.29 $77.33 div
    15-May-2014 1.64 $139.16 $84.96 div
    14-Aug-2014 1.453 $139.93 $96.33 div

    date shares total price $/share
    28-Mar-2011 105 $5,273.25 $50.22 basis
    16-Aug-2012 0.43 $39.75 $91.59 div
    15-Nov-2012 0.52 $39.91 $76.02 div
    14-Feb-2013 0.6 $40.11 $67.41 div
    16-May-2013 0.75 $46.43 $61.99 div
    15-Aug-2013 0.66 $46.75 $71.05 div
    14-Nov-2013 0.62 $47.04 $75.51 div
    13-Feb-2014 0.61 $47.31 $77.68 div
    15-May-2014 0.6 $51.32 $85.25 div

    Run the numbers. A $19k basis is now worth $43k. I'd say AAPL did me well...unlike how GTAT did by its shareholders.

  • Reply to

    We lied, we destroyed the company......

    by dr.tjm42 Dec 30, 2014 9:27 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Jan 3, 2015 2:47 PM Flag

    @l_yoni

    Not to get philosophical, but it's not just leaders. Remember, these business leaders come from our general culture. It's become all too acceptable for anybody making it up the ranks to disproportionately and unfairly not only skim wealth, but also hurt ordinary workers and investors.

    We have classic situation here. Privatize gains for elites and socialize the losses amongst shareholders. Effectively.

    It's not all doom and gloom. There are great management teams. Google, Apple, Microsoft, Corning, Johnson & Johnson, and Coca-Cola are companies where leadership has done well with our trust. My portfolio can attest to this...even with Coca-Cola management recently reworking an unfair bonus plan due to activism.

    We just have to sift these great companies from the GTATs of the world...which again brings us full circle to ideas on risk, diversification, and the dangers of emergent, unproven companies.

  • Reply to

    We lied, we destroyed the company......

    by dr.tjm42 Dec 30, 2014 9:27 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Jan 3, 2015 2:41 PM Flag

    Lass, you know what is best for you. But I still think you over think GTAT with a positive bias. I for one NEVER trust a management that has committed fraud, through omission or commission.

    TG and his cronies keep skimming more and more wealth. Merline. Hyperion. Now some furnaces that apparently couldn't get the job done for Apple.

    All I see happening is the same wealth transfer scam that GTAT has always been. The only salesmanship TG has demonstrated is indeed selling this con game to trusting shareholders. Sorry, I wouldn't dare put a penny into what is now GTAT"Q".

  • Reply to

    We lied, we destroyed the company......

    by dr.tjm42 Dec 30, 2014 9:27 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Jan 3, 2015 1:02 PM Flag

    I didn't thumb you down. But to me there is nothing constructive asking whom will lead an organization that basically defrauded shareholders. As if there is some light now at the end of the tunnel, in what has been a money sucking abyss.

    GTAT deserves maximum outrage and protest. Not a benefit of doubt that encourages more speculation.

  • Reply to

    We lied, we destroyed the company......

    by dr.tjm42 Dec 30, 2014 9:27 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Dec 31, 2014 1:56 PM Flag

    This is macabre comedy. A fairly decisive statement on human nature. Suffice it to say, it takes a sophisticated kind of evil to do what TG and his staff are doing.

    They've pulled off a con game with GTAT. They're doing it again with GTATQ. They obviously have no shame or reservation in doing this as often as others will allow them.

    And, apparently, lots of folks continue to allow them to perpetuate this charade. Especially retail investors. Even those whom unwittingly hand their money to managers investing on their behalf. But especially retail investors whom directly subject themselves to this farcical manipulation.

    Don't get me wrong. There are forces of good on wall street. Excellent money can be made with intelligence and knowledge. But beware of the likes of TG, mutual fund managers, pundits, and even over enthusiastic chat board posters combining to produce the kind of disaster that is GTAT.

TRN
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