I was making a broad statement against the general slander. Not you. Sorry if that got confused.
I'm taking Matt at his word. I see no reason to interpret his analysis and conduct through a prism of human malevolence. Again, it's decisive for me that he's acting publicly, putting his reputation as a neophyte professional analyst on the line.
He may or may not survive this professionally. I hope he does. I hope he learns, adjusts, and adopts a more measured and cautious approach. Not to be too irreverent, but this invokes something said by an icon of my youth, Peter Parker the Spectacular Spiderman: "with great power comes great responsibility".
I'm simply not going to savage a young man trying to make an honest living. There are a lot of fraudsters and charlatans out there. Matt's not one of them. At least from what I can tell.
He made mistakes. But honest mistakes.
I'll chime in with another viewpoint. When a single stock commands a disproportionate amount of your time, it's a red flag. Especially when also accompanied by over concentration of money. Especially when it's speculative. Especially if it's contingent on so many permutations of scenario gaming.
The icing on the cake is when your decision making rests on an appeal to authority. It's dangerous. It's statistically likely to lead to ultimate losses.
As is evident, it also leads to insensitive attacks on the said authority. Namely, in this case, Matt. Don't get me wrong, as criticism is warranted. But there's a difference between criticism and slander.
Matt is genuine. He's facing all of this publicly. He's facing his audience. He's holding his shares. He's taking his lumps professionally and learning.
He doesn't deserve the slander. Keep it civil folks. Even on a chat board.
CBI is a great buy now. It was even a fair value buy before the unfortunate accounting arrears charge. I put in $20k at an average price in the past 2 months.
I'm confident it will perform like most of my value picks. Namely, beat the S&P500 over time. I have at least a 3 - 5 year window for this to happen. I believe I posted some value analysis on CBI in a previous post here.
As to FB, it seems too highly valued for too high a market cap. How much more growth can they really generate? I could be wrong, but it's too risky for me.
Let me clarify something. TRN is best known as a rail car maker, although it does a bit more. But it is in the railroad and general transportation supply chain. It's not a railroad, as I may have implied.
When Buffet started buying BNI stock, I looked throughout the rail supply chain. Again, that's how I found CNI and TRN, both surprisingly undervalued. Both had significant alpha, much more than the S&P500. Clearly the PEs have not only reverted to trailing pricing valuations...but are establishing higher ranges.
Again, I'm fairly confident that North American energy and manufacturing will power a secular bull for the next decade or so. We might get a remaining cyclical bear, but I doubt it will be severe.
All the best.
The point is to buy when cheap. But based on your responses, you clearly don't understand what I mean by the term cheap in this context. It has everything to do with proportionality.
Anyways, you're clearly not interested in a productive exchange. You're simply trolling. If you have something interesting to say, do so, and say it like a gentleman. Otherwise, like I said, feel free to put me on ignore.
If you have any investing expertise, you'd recognize the term "value investing". And apply it to what I demonstrated with concrete details and results. I buy quality companies when they are cheap.
Meaning I evaluate PE, PEG, PS, PB, & ROIC, especially in the context of average training valuations. When cheap, I buy in heavily. I hold forever, reinvesting dividends along the way. Benjamin Graham & Warren Buffett 101 stuff.
I bought in 2008 due to Buffett having earlier bought into BNI. Most rails spiked. But CNI was still undervalued. So was TRN, which is nearly a 4x bagger now. And I liked emerging energy and manufacturing trends...in which North America is undergoing a renaissance.
Right now CNI is expensive. But it might be a high growth machine for a while. I'd buy TRN before CNI on PE alone. Again, CNI probably will sustain a high earnings growth. If you get a 10%+ growth a year at a PE 19, it might be worth getting in...but I prefer value.
I invested in IBM, AFL, CBI, and DE on value relatively recently.
Anyways, feel free to put me on ignore. Or you can check my past posts for more details. All the best regardless.
CNI shares total price $/share
14-May-2008 358.39 $10,009.13 $27.93 basis
1-Jul-2008 1.71 $40.57 $23.70 div
2-Oct-2008 1.68 $39.18 $23.27 div
2-Jan-2009 1.82 $34.25 $18.82 div
1-Apr-2009 2.08 $36.48 $17.52 div
1-Jul-2009 1.84 $39.87 $21.67 div
1-Oct-2009 1.78 $43.50 $24.38 div
4-Jan-2010 1.62 $44.65 $27.49 div
1-Apr-2010 1.61 $49.30 $30.58 div
8-Apr-2010 1.62 $49.48 $30.58 div
1-Jul-2010 1.68 $47.49 $28.30 div
1-Oct-2010 1.53 $49.14 $32.03 div
3-Jan-2011 1.51 $51.21 $33.82 div
1-Apr-2011 1.66 $63.32 $38.05 div
1-Jul-2011 1.61 $63.92 $39.80 div
3-Oct-2011 1.82 $59.37 $32.69 div
3-Jan-2012 1.53 $61.11 $39.99 div
2-Apr-2012 1.82 $72.28 $39.71 div
2-Jul-2012 1.69 $70.91 $42.06 div
1-Oct-2012 1.66 $74.02 $44.59 div
2-Jan-2013 1.58 $73.42 $46.47 div
1-Apr-2013 1.66 $82.88 $49.81 div
1-Jul-2013 1.63 $80.27 $49.12 div
1-Oct-2013 1.61 $82.47 $51.29 div
2-Jan-2014 1.42 $80.32 $56.68 div
1-Apr-2014 1.602 $90.19 $56.29 div
30-Jun-2014 1.437 $93.64 $65.16 div
That's a 200.36% total gain, with a CAGR of 18.91%. It crushed the S&P500.
Value investing works.
Keep in mind that TRN is diversifying. It's not only about rail cars. The company has an excellent opportunity to get into supply chain optimization as well.
date shares total price $/share
17-Aug-2007 300 $4,958.95 $16.53 basis
31-Oct-2007 0.59 $10.50 $17.92 div
28-Nov-2007 400 $5,241.95 $13.10 basis
31-Jan-2008 1.79 $24.52 $13.68 div
30-Apr-2008 1.58 $24.58 $15.56 div
31-Jul-2008 1.45 $28.16 $19.42 div
31-Oct-2008 3.41 $28.22 $8.27 div
30-Jan-2009 4.84 $28.35 $5.86 div
30-Apr-2009 3.77 $28.55 $7.57 div
31-Jul-2009 4.05 $28.70 $7.08 div
30-Oct-2009 3.31 $28.86 $8.72 div
29-Jan-2010 3.65 $28.99 $7.95 div
30-Apr-2010 2.28 $29.14 $12.79 div
30-Jul-2010 2.87 $29.23 $10.17 div
29-Oct-2010 2.58 $29.34 $11.35 div
31-Jan-2011 2.12 $29.45 $13.88 div
29-Apr-2011 1.64 $29.53 $18.03 div
29-Jul-2011 2.27 $33.30 $14.68 div
31-Oct-2011 2.41 $33.40 $13.88 div
31-Jan-2012 2.12 $33.51 $15.82 div
30-Apr-2012 2.29 $33.60 $14.70 div
31-Jul-2012 2.91 $41.20 $14.15 div
31-Oct-2012 2.65 $41.36 $15.61 div
31-Jan-2013 2.11 $41.50 $19.71 div
30-Apr-2013 1.99 $41.62 $20.87 div
31-Jul-2013 2.53 $49.31 $19.47 div
31-Oct-2013 2.29 $57.09 $24.93 div
31-Jan-2014 1.93 $57.26 $29.61 div
30-Apr-2014 1.5 $57.41 $38.22 div
31-Jul-2014 1.74 $76.69 $44.06 div
avg $/share: $13.27
current price: $48.12
current value: $36,988.40
total gain: 262.60%
S&P500 wi dividends total gain: 55.715%
S&P500 wi dividends CAGR: 6.531%
basis yield: 3.007%
Beats day trading.
To the extent that you will believe me, sure, I attest that I never have and never will short GTAT.
I'm obviously posting more because of the negative action. Not because I am in league with some short conspiracy. I actually made money, with my $27k basis being now worth some $40k. But a lot of folks are deep underwater, not least due to how we influenced them here.
I'm just propagating the risk aversion strategy I've advocated from the beginning. Especially in lieu of the severe pullback. There's no sinister intent here.
You have a good dad. He did well for himself. But not before his personnel. As you noted, not every leader thinks this way.
I agree that GTAT might turn things around. I don't have a crystal ball. But in light of everything we're discussing, I will keep watching for a positive catalyst.
Read the thread I started on this topic.
He hasn't been selling consistently. He's been increasing his sales as the price has been improving. Especially automatic sales. But even option exercises and dispositions.
Most importantly...and to my original point...the CEO and executives shouldn't be selling when they're still trying to create a viable company. GTAT is simply not there yet. Create shareholder value...and then indulge.
Here's some interesting insider selling information on TG.
Here is some TG insider sales information I processed into excel using Yahoo insider sales info. Note: dispositions include shares of acquisition and those labeled simply "sale". Also, please note and correct any mistakes I have made.
automatic sales: 0
options exercise: 142,277
automatic sales: 0
options exercise: 303,062
automatic sales: 607,873
options exercise: 532,125
The trending is clear. TG increasingly sold as the share price increased. He in fact had no automatic sales until 2014. This from a man reported by Yahoo to make a $2 million salary at GTAT.
Are there mitigating factors? I don't see any. There could be, but they're not obvious to me. I still feel he shouldn't be selling amidst so much volatility, not as a founder type CEO.
Again, this reinforces my being wary of GTAT management. Earnings is what I will trust.
To be fair, the entire market is experiencing a minor pullback. GLW is actually doing well. This and its proven diversification actually speaks well to its stability.
GTAT, right or wrong, for now is being judged by the street on the basis of sapphire on the iphone.
I'm looking at this and studying it in excel. I will say this: in summary TG has been heavily selling his shares. By disposition, automatic sale, or option exercise.
In total, he has sold 2,059,571 shares. This includes about $30k converted VRS shares. I still have some analysis to do.
But this is pretty damning. I just can't rationalize this behavior. He started selling right out of the gate at $5. He even is actively selling his stocks, aside from exercising grants or planned sales. Why?
You have no basis for saying this was a GTAT paid pump and dump scheme. If you calm down, you could have some interesting things to say. And garner some credibility.
I still believe the majority of longs here are genuine in their hopes for GTAT. Let's just say I have a positive bias when it comes to assessing human nature. Even yours.
I don't think your 800k share citation is correct. As others stated, it's more like 250k shares. I also believe TG makes $2 million a year.
But you are right overall about what kind of statement this makes. I actually didn't know the extent of this selling until after I sold last week. But it definitely reinforces my decision...and makes me all the more wary of TG and his management team.
He makes $2 million a year and is flush with options. Sorry, but this is poor leadership and faith in what he is trying to get us to invest into. I'm definitely going to listen on Sept 29th with this in mind...but am also at the point where the only thing I really now trust are earnings.
Is this true? Is there a legal definition of and requirement to disseminate "material change that would affect any reasonable investor's decision whether to buy, hold, or sell the stock"?
I'm not trying to be pedantic here, but diversifying generational wealth by cashing in shareholder money before actually creating shareholder value is immoral in my book. Straight shooting for me is in the CEO assuming great risk in an enterprise that he is in the process of creating. Let him diversify with his considerable pay and money he earned before GTAT...as you and I do.
For this and reasons I discussed in earlier posts, I can't get behind TG on this. He had the option of not selling shares. Even buying them. Never mind selling massive amounts during a rise coinciding with bullish announcements.
With his kind of wealth, he can take all kind of risk. Time isn't a factor for him either. But that's not the case for many retail investors, to whom he has a moral duty at least to create shareholder value.
Again...and I will keep beating this dead horse...he failed on this count in promoting shareholder value. It's telling when I get called out on the GTAT group thread for never being a true believer...but the same people don't mind if the GTAT CEO isn't.
It remains a red flag for me.
BTW: I plan on getting up EARLY on Sept 29th. And being nimble. This should be interesting.
All the best my friend. I hope I don't come off too negative. Hope this ends well for all concerned.