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International Business Machines Corporation Message Board

banmate7 103 posts  |  Last Activity: 2 hours 7 minutes ago Member since: Jun 7, 1999
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  • Reply to

    Thinking of selling CBI...

    by pes1942 12 hours ago
    banmate7 banmate7 2 hours 7 minutes ago Flag

    CBI is a great buy now. It was even a fair value buy before the unfortunate accounting arrears charge. I put in $20k at an average price in the past 2 months.

    I'm confident it will perform like most of my value picks. Namely, beat the S&P500 over time. I have at least a 3 - 5 year window for this to happen. I believe I posted some value analysis on CBI in a previous post here.

    As to FB, it seems too highly valued for too high a market cap. How much more growth can they really generate? I could be wrong, but it's too risky for me.

  • Reply to

    CNI is now a Triple Bagger for Me

    by banmate7 12 hours ago

    Let me clarify something. TRN is best known as a rail car maker, although it does a bit more. But it is in the railroad and general transportation supply chain. It's not a railroad, as I may have implied.

    When Buffet started buying BNI stock, I looked throughout the rail supply chain. Again, that's how I found CNI and TRN, both surprisingly undervalued. Both had significant alpha, much more than the S&P500. Clearly the PEs have not only reverted to trailing pricing valuations...but are establishing higher ranges.

    Again, I'm fairly confident that North American energy and manufacturing will power a secular bull for the next decade or so. We might get a remaining cyclical bear, but I doubt it will be severe.

    All the best.

  • Reply to

    CNI is now a Triple Bagger for Me

    by banmate7 12 hours ago
    banmate7 banmate7 10 hours ago Flag

    The point is to buy when cheap. But based on your responses, you clearly don't understand what I mean by the term cheap in this context. It has everything to do with proportionality.

    Anyways, you're clearly not interested in a productive exchange. You're simply trolling. If you have something interesting to say, do so, and say it like a gentleman. Otherwise, like I said, feel free to put me on ignore.

  • Reply to

    CNI is now a Triple Bagger for Me

    by banmate7 12 hours ago
    banmate7 banmate7 11 hours ago Flag

    If you have any investing expertise, you'd recognize the term "value investing". And apply it to what I demonstrated with concrete details and results. I buy quality companies when they are cheap.

    Meaning I evaluate PE, PEG, PS, PB, & ROIC, especially in the context of average training valuations. When cheap, I buy in heavily. I hold forever, reinvesting dividends along the way. Benjamin Graham & Warren Buffett 101 stuff.

    I bought in 2008 due to Buffett having earlier bought into BNI. Most rails spiked. But CNI was still undervalued. So was TRN, which is nearly a 4x bagger now. And I liked emerging energy and manufacturing trends...in which North America is undergoing a renaissance.

    Right now CNI is expensive. But it might be a high growth machine for a while. I'd buy TRN before CNI on PE alone. Again, CNI probably will sustain a high earnings growth. If you get a 10%+ growth a year at a PE 19, it might be worth getting in...but I prefer value.

    I invested in IBM, AFL, CBI, and DE on value relatively recently.

    Anyways, feel free to put me on ignore. Or you can check my past posts for more details. All the best regardless.

  • CNI shares total price $/share
    14-May-2008 358.39 $10,009.13 $27.93 basis
    1-Jul-2008 1.71 $40.57 $23.70 div
    2-Oct-2008 1.68 $39.18 $23.27 div
    2-Jan-2009 1.82 $34.25 $18.82 div
    1-Apr-2009 2.08 $36.48 $17.52 div
    1-Jul-2009 1.84 $39.87 $21.67 div
    1-Oct-2009 1.78 $43.50 $24.38 div
    4-Jan-2010 1.62 $44.65 $27.49 div
    1-Apr-2010 1.61 $49.30 $30.58 div
    8-Apr-2010 1.62 $49.48 $30.58 div
    1-Jul-2010 1.68 $47.49 $28.30 div
    1-Oct-2010 1.53 $49.14 $32.03 div
    3-Jan-2011 1.51 $51.21 $33.82 div
    1-Apr-2011 1.66 $63.32 $38.05 div
    1-Jul-2011 1.61 $63.92 $39.80 div
    3-Oct-2011 1.82 $59.37 $32.69 div
    3-Jan-2012 1.53 $61.11 $39.99 div
    2-Apr-2012 1.82 $72.28 $39.71 div
    2-Jul-2012 1.69 $70.91 $42.06 div
    1-Oct-2012 1.66 $74.02 $44.59 div
    2-Jan-2013 1.58 $73.42 $46.47 div
    1-Apr-2013 1.66 $82.88 $49.81 div
    1-Jul-2013 1.63 $80.27 $49.12 div
    1-Oct-2013 1.61 $82.47 $51.29 div
    2-Jan-2014 1.42 $80.32 $56.68 div
    1-Apr-2014 1.602 $90.19 $56.29 div
    30-Jun-2014 1.437 $93.64 $65.16 div

    That's a 200.36% total gain, with a CAGR of 18.91%. It crushed the S&P500.

    Value investing works.

  • Reply to

    IBD and Short Sellers TRN 47.87

    by carolyn_novice Sep 11, 2014 11:04 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Sep 17, 2014 7:32 PM Flag

    Keep in mind that TRN is diversifying. It's not only about rail cars. The company has an excellent opportunity to get into supply chain optimization as well.

  • Reply to

    IBD and Short Sellers TRN 47.87

    by carolyn_novice Sep 11, 2014 11:04 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Sep 17, 2014 12:28 AM Flag

    date shares total price $/share
    17-Aug-2007 300 $4,958.95 $16.53 basis
    31-Oct-2007 0.59 $10.50 $17.92 div
    28-Nov-2007 400 $5,241.95 $13.10 basis
    31-Jan-2008 1.79 $24.52 $13.68 div
    30-Apr-2008 1.58 $24.58 $15.56 div
    31-Jul-2008 1.45 $28.16 $19.42 div
    31-Oct-2008 3.41 $28.22 $8.27 div
    30-Jan-2009 4.84 $28.35 $5.86 div
    30-Apr-2009 3.77 $28.55 $7.57 div
    31-Jul-2009 4.05 $28.70 $7.08 div
    30-Oct-2009 3.31 $28.86 $8.72 div
    29-Jan-2010 3.65 $28.99 $7.95 div
    30-Apr-2010 2.28 $29.14 $12.79 div
    30-Jul-2010 2.87 $29.23 $10.17 div
    29-Oct-2010 2.58 $29.34 $11.35 div
    31-Jan-2011 2.12 $29.45 $13.88 div
    29-Apr-2011 1.64 $29.53 $18.03 div
    29-Jul-2011 2.27 $33.30 $14.68 div
    31-Oct-2011 2.41 $33.40 $13.88 div
    31-Jan-2012 2.12 $33.51 $15.82 div
    30-Apr-2012 2.29 $33.60 $14.70 div
    31-Jul-2012 2.91 $41.20 $14.15 div
    31-Oct-2012 2.65 $41.36 $15.61 div
    31-Jan-2013 2.11 $41.50 $19.71 div
    30-Apr-2013 1.99 $41.62 $20.87 div
    31-Jul-2013 2.53 $49.31 $19.47 div
    31-Oct-2013 2.29 $57.09 $24.93 div
    31-Jan-2014 1.93 $57.26 $29.61 div
    30-Apr-2014 1.5 $57.41 $38.22 div
    31-Jul-2014 1.74 $76.69 $44.06 div

    basis: $10,200.90
    avg $/share: $13.27
    current price: $48.12
    current value: $36,988.40
    total gain: 262.60%
    CAGR: 20.38%
    S&P500 wi dividends total gain: 55.715%
    S&P500 wi dividends CAGR: 6.531%
    basis yield: 3.007%
    dividends: $1,003.37

    Beats day trading.

  • Reply to

    Some Basic TG Insider Sales Numbers

    by banmate7 Sep 15, 2014 8:04 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Sep 16, 2014 12:21 AM Flag

    To the extent that you will believe me, sure, I attest that I never have and never will short GTAT.

    I'm obviously posting more because of the negative action. Not because I am in league with some short conspiracy. I actually made money, with my $27k basis being now worth some $40k. But a lot of folks are deep underwater, not least due to how we influenced them here.

    I'm just propagating the risk aversion strategy I've advocated from the beginning. Especially in lieu of the severe pullback. There's no sinister intent here.

  • Reply to

    Some Basic TG Insider Sales Numbers

    by banmate7 Sep 15, 2014 8:04 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Sep 15, 2014 11:19 PM Flag

    You have a good dad. He did well for himself. But not before his personnel. As you noted, not every leader thinks this way.

    I agree that GTAT might turn things around. I don't have a crystal ball. But in light of everything we're discussing, I will keep watching for a positive catalyst.

    Fingers crossed.

  • Reply to

    Some Basic TG Insider Sales Numbers

    by banmate7 Sep 15, 2014 8:04 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Sep 15, 2014 8:30 PM Flag

    Can somebody illuminate any timing issues here? I am pondering when TG created his 2014 automatic sales schedule.

  • Reply to

    Lesson in Insider Sales

    by yarnpuller Sep 15, 2014 5:18 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Sep 15, 2014 8:23 PM Flag

    Read the thread I started on this topic.

    He hasn't been selling consistently. He's been increasing his sales as the price has been improving. Especially automatic sales. But even option exercises and dispositions.

    Most importantly...and to my original point...the CEO and executives shouldn't be selling when they're still trying to create a viable company. GTAT is simply not there yet. Create shareholder value...and then indulge.

  • Here's some interesting insider selling information on TG.

    Here is some TG insider sales information I processed into excel using Yahoo insider sales info. Note: dispositions include shares of acquisition and those labeled simply "sale". Also, please note and correct any mistakes I have made.

    2012
    automatic sales: 0
    disposition: 51,859
    options exercise: 142,277
    total: 194,136

    2013
    automatic sales: 0
    disposition: 103,977
    options exercise: 303,062
    total: 407,039

    2014
    automatic sales: 607,873
    disposition: 318,398
    options exercise: 532,125
    total: 1,458,396

    The trending is clear. TG increasingly sold as the share price increased. He in fact had no automatic sales until 2014. This from a man reported by Yahoo to make a $2 million salary at GTAT.

    Are there mitigating factors? I don't see any. There could be, but they're not obvious to me. I still feel he shouldn't be selling amidst so much volatility, not as a founder type CEO.

    Again, this reinforces my being wary of GTAT management. Earnings is what I will trust.

  • banmate7 banmate7 Sep 15, 2014 6:52 PM Flag

    To be fair, the entire market is experiencing a minor pullback. GLW is actually doing well. This and its proven diversification actually speaks well to its stability.

    GTAT, right or wrong, for now is being judged by the street on the basis of sapphire on the iphone.

  • Reply to

    Lesson in Insider Sales

    by yarnpuller Sep 15, 2014 5:18 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Sep 15, 2014 6:45 PM Flag

    I'm looking at this and studying it in excel. I will say this: in summary TG has been heavily selling his shares. By disposition, automatic sale, or option exercise.

    In total, he has sold 2,059,571 shares. This includes about $30k converted VRS shares. I still have some analysis to do.

    But this is pretty damning. I just can't rationalize this behavior. He started selling right out of the gate at $5. He even is actively selling his stocks, aside from exercising grants or planned sales. Why?

  • Reply to

    Lesson in Insider Sales

    by yarnpuller Sep 15, 2014 5:18 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Sep 15, 2014 5:53 PM Flag

    You have no basis for saying this was a GTAT paid pump and dump scheme. If you calm down, you could have some interesting things to say. And garner some credibility.

    I still believe the majority of longs here are genuine in their hopes for GTAT. Let's just say I have a positive bias when it comes to assessing human nature. Even yours.

  • Reply to

    Lesson in Insider Sales

    by yarnpuller Sep 15, 2014 5:18 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Sep 15, 2014 5:41 PM Flag

    I don't think your 800k share citation is correct. As others stated, it's more like 250k shares. I also believe TG makes $2 million a year.

    But you are right overall about what kind of statement this makes. I actually didn't know the extent of this selling until after I sold last week. But it definitely reinforces my decision...and makes me all the more wary of TG and his management team.

    He makes $2 million a year and is flush with options. Sorry, but this is poor leadership and faith in what he is trying to get us to invest into. I'm definitely going to listen on Sept 29th with this in mind...but am also at the point where the only thing I really now trust are earnings.

  • Reply to

    business update scheduled sept 29th

    by tressimer Sep 15, 2014 4:19 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Sep 15, 2014 4:52 PM Flag

    Is this true? Is there a legal definition of and requirement to disseminate "material change that would affect any reasonable investor's decision whether to buy, hold, or sell the stock"?

  • Reply to

    Chelle...

    by renaissancekid Sep 15, 2014 12:52 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Sep 15, 2014 4:48 PM Flag

    I'm not trying to be pedantic here, but diversifying generational wealth by cashing in shareholder money before actually creating shareholder value is immoral in my book. Straight shooting for me is in the CEO assuming great risk in an enterprise that he is in the process of creating. Let him diversify with his considerable pay and money he earned before GTAT...as you and I do.

    For this and reasons I discussed in earlier posts, I can't get behind TG on this. He had the option of not selling shares. Even buying them. Never mind selling massive amounts during a rise coinciding with bullish announcements.

    With his kind of wealth, he can take all kind of risk. Time isn't a factor for him either. But that's not the case for many retail investors, to whom he has a moral duty at least to create shareholder value.

    Again...and I will keep beating this dead horse...he failed on this count in promoting shareholder value. It's telling when I get called out on the GTAT group thread for never being a true believer...but the same people don't mind if the GTAT CEO isn't.

    It remains a red flag for me.

    BTW: I plan on getting up EARLY on Sept 29th. And being nimble. This should be interesting.

    All the best my friend. I hope I don't come off too negative. Hope this ends well for all concerned.

  • Reply to

    Chelle...

    by renaissancekid Sep 15, 2014 12:52 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Sep 15, 2014 4:21 PM Flag

    I agree 100%.

    I believe Chelle is a decent person and means well. Same with Matt. But you concisely pointed out the responsibility of being an ethical "influencer".

    Even on a Yahoo Finance forum.

  • Reply to

    short seller just broke our backs under 12

    by cvs9yt Sep 15, 2014 2:18 PM
    banmate7 banmate7 Sep 15, 2014 3:52 PM Flag

    Hammer, the problem I have is that TG is guaranteeing himself generational wealth. Way before he has created a company of value for shareholders.

    I find the excuses others have made for him utterly insulting and misleading. Even some long time posters characterized his still significant ownership of shares and probable stock grants as "having skin in the game". Are these folks kidding?

    Skin in the game characterizes people like you, me, and those who used their hard earned money to outright buy GTAT stock. TG sold stocks given to him, cashing in our skin in the game. I expected more from him & GTAT management.

    I take full responsibility however. It is what it is. And as you know, I got out in time. I just feel for those who are underwater.

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