The market has turned remarkably positive for me. I'm almost at break even from my highs over 1 year ago. I'll especially surge ahead once a normalization of oil price and energy stock valuations takes place.
Today's price action in CBI helps. I'm now down only 20%. I'm now more confident than ever of it beating the S&P500 within a total window of 3 - 5 years.
As I posted earlier, I was always confident of INTC. Still am about GLW & CSCO, which will eventually surge as well. My significant position in TRN will also do well...which I still believe is worth a new position at this PE.
By the way, my XOM buy is up 10%. That one I timed correctly. I still have catch up in RDS-B, RDS-A, NOV, DNOW, and DVN, all of which remain down...but are still quality companies.
I liked CAT better than DE for some time. Mining equipment degrades more quickly than farming equipment. Also, colleagues of mine and articles on Seeking Alpha have stated that a lot of capital investment occurred in farming these few years...and that equipment replenishment won't see a boom for some time.
I'd say we're almost at candy store status.
I'll post later when I have time. But the bear is biting.
For now, I think $36 is a great time to start a new position in CBI.
I also would look into GLW. I think it's a solid buy. Dirt cheap. At a PE = 8, it is below 15, 10, 5, and 3 years PEs of 16, 12.4, 11.7, and 14.7. Yet solid earnings.
The PE trending indicates movement towards the longer term norms. For me, this is significant alpha. This is my core analytic method for identifying value. Obviously, you then have to look at cash flow, balance sheets, competition, and overall economy to ensure the business remains viable...that there is a future.
CBI and GLW are my largest commitments of basis. $26k in CBI, $20k in GLW. Again, I envy folks taking in new positions in these companies...as I think they'll do extremely well over the years.
In fact, I think CBI is as sure bet as there is. CBI certainly has a deeper moat than GLW. There is a significant barrier to entry with energy products. Nevertheless, I still think GLW will innovate new materials science products and also do well.
By the way, I also think INTC and CSCO are quality investments. They are cheap relative to longer term valuations. Solid cash flow and balance sheets. Both grew top line revenue and profit margins, beating expectations.
I for one believe both companies have strong moats. Of course, you might have your own ideas here. But if you think the business have a future, now's a good time to start accumulating.
They're not retail, but I can't think of too many retail stocks right now.
I did some buying these past few weeks. I bought 150 shares of DOW at $41.09; 60 shares of JNJ at $93.45; 100 shares of WFC at $52.33; 100 shares of XOM at $74.80; and 200 shares of SBRA at $26.87.
This is an interesting time. But I think we're near the worst of it. At least in aggregate. China, Greece, the fed, and oil are playing out. This may be a stiff correction or a cyclical bear. I can't tell for sure. But I am convinced we won't see 20% overall dip, more likely 10% - 15%.
As noted, I've started deploying my cash reserves. I have about $100k cash left. I'm very confident in my latest buys, as all are at deep to fair value. I definitely am waiting to go in more, especially in energy.
With energy, I'm waiting for $30/barrel or a stable bottom, whichever comes 1st. I plan on buying more of CBI and XOM. Maybe COP & MRO as new positions. I obviously entered XOM, as I'm seeing some glimmers of stability. But we will see.
Retail? I like JNJ & WMT right now. Again, I'm a value investor. I think there are good deals across sectors. In my view, this is the time to buy lower. I don't think the sky is falling.
As always, I'm prepared to hold a long time. I ultimately have faith in margin of safety investing, waiting for valuations to normalize. Fingers crossed.
I remain a holder of 900 shares averaged at a price of $16. I'm hoping for a positive outcome on the guardrails. As I've said in the past, I'd be a liar if I didn't acknowledge that this could end badly.
When politicians, lawyers, and frivolous plaintiffs get together, watch out. Especially when the class warfare is thrown. It's allegedly about rich executives killing regular folks and demanding restitution.
Don't get me wrong. I feel for those lost in accidents. But from all the public information, the guardrails are as reasonably safe as physics allows. They passed official tests. But the government and its crony interests are on a never ending fishing expedition to make guilt a self fulfilling prophecy.
Even in the US, there is a corruption factor that could materialize here. I hope not. Otherwise TRN is a superb company with excellent prospects. Hope it all ends well.
I'm remain a hold. My 426 shares at a $26k basis are now worth $19k, a 28% paper decline. I still have no worries, confident that CBI will crush the S&P500 over 5 years. I envy those whom don't have a position...as you can start with 1/3 or 1/4 increments.
I think the oil angle is valid. Right or wrong, CBI is associated with oil. I intend to buy big in energy once oil bottoms or reaching $30/barrel, whichever comes first. As with CBI, I'm down with my energy plays, DVN, DNOW, RDS-A, RDS-B, and NOV, some 25%, so I have to be cautious.
We're getting a nice rise today. But Iran is coming online. In the next year, I feel oil can go down a lot more. A friend of mine in the Texas oil industry described a panicky situation. Many companies are slashing spending, from majors to fracking upstarts. There will be bankruptcies and consolidation. There could be dividend cuts. But North American energy will survive and be dominant, outlasting OPEC in this game of solvency.
I will average down in CBI and DVN. I will buy new into XOM, MRO, and COP. Again, I need a fairly stable bottom. I believe there will be plenty of time to get a good deal.