I have a lot of sympathy for the folks whom lost money here. That won't change. But for the love of sanity, some clearly are deluding themselves as to what happened here...and are setting themselves up for future failure.
Scott, you have no more idea of how the litigation will go as anybody else. At least most of us acknowledge that it could range $0 - $1 billion. But also that the fundamentals are compelling...especially in North American energy, manufacturing, & transportation. Think secular bull market here.
If it weren't for this lawsuit, TRN would be a no brainer.
Again, it's a bit of dice roll. But I'm holding for now. Based on what I researched, I believe there were 5 deaths associated with these lawsuits. As I said in the past, I support compensation if TRN is found to truly be liable...with a fair payout.
That last point is the big question mark. Like it or not, a lot of legal and government scavengers are see this as a lottery ticket payday. Anything but actual justice and safety.
Well, I held and am fortunate. For whatever reason, TRN is bouncing back. A lot of pundits are saying the selling was overdone, even in light of the lawsuit.
By sheer paralysis, I remain a hold. At this point, I have no idea what will happen. This is dice roll with the lawsuit.
If the lawsuit doesn't result in serious damages, TRN is otherwise a great company. Fingers crossed.
I absolutely diversified. Coincidentally, I was in GTAT. But I happened to get out with a 40% - 60% profit before that company went belly up.
Now I'm dealing with TRN. I'm up 100%. I'm still not sure what to do.
It's you choice to believe me. But I am still holding all my shares. I even bought more some 2 weeks ago.
I simply don't know the facts. Nobody does. But fear is driving this stock down. Hard.
The reality is that there is significant anti-corporate sentiment. And don't underestimate government trying to line its pockets when it can. Never mind the whistle blowing competitor to TRN.
I will bail if it goes down significantly again. It hurts, as I love this company. But one has to be defensive and appraise reality...as opposed to acting on what we think should be the ideal outcome.
I love TRN. But litigation involving deaths and potential product defects can seriously hurt a company. I can't hold it against folks for bailing on TRN or refusing to take a position.
Again, as painful as it is for me as a shareholder, let justice prevail. If there was some wrong doing, TRN has to be punished. To what extent? I'm no expert and don't have an informed opinion.
I'm still up 100% or so. I was up 275% a month ago. Still, I have to keep this in context in the possibility that product defects may have cost lives...which is incalculable.
My $35 recent buy looks good. At least today. I'm hoping we're settling on a bottom with TRN. Especially because of positive news on the guardrail issue.
If I read correctly...and I only skimmed the NYT article...TRN says it never deployed the questionable guardrails. It didn't release test results, but supposedly they were never shipped.
I hate to resort to an appeal to authority. But wouldn't Berkshire and Van Den Berg have vetted this out? They both bought after PP made their initial accusations. I have to believe these 2 marquee investors do basic cash flow, balance, sheet, and income statement due diligfence.
I think you might know how I feel about GTAT. I'll say it again: GTAT is the bad & ugly about capitalism. Suffice it to say, Tom Gutierrez should go to jail, although I'm not holding my breath.
Fortunately, we have the good. With companies like TRN. Well run. Revenue growth. Profits. Diversification. No hype. Just results.
Ironically, I fought with several GTAT posters about risk & diversification. We made bets on which stocks would have the greatest return in 1 year. I rode GTAT and got out with 40% - 60% profit...but in the end, my value bets beat GTAT within the said year.
There are some hard lessons here. I hope people listen.
The promise of solar was nearly as speculative as sapphire. GTAT has always had trouble with consistent revenue, earnings, and forecasts. Running out of money was in many ways what drove them to go all in on sapphire with Apple. Solar wasn't sufficing.
GTAT was always contingent on solar and sapphire markets materializing. Never mind putting its products into such products. Hence, no way can you say that GTAT would have been $20 on solar alone, even in 5 years.
Obviously in hindsight, this would be nearly impossible given how inept and corrupt GTAT management has proven to be. This was a con game all along. We simply got suckered. Period.
I added at $35, on top of what I already had at $13. But now I'm really going to wait for a bottom. This market is simply irrational and volatile.
No telling yet how low it can go.
I believe it's Saudi Arabia and Iran. They're playing an ill advised price war game. Trying to kill emergent North American oil.
The fact that it's actually hurting Russia more is ironic.
I'm keeping faith with North American interests here. We have the economic diversity and mass to sustain our energy, manufacturing, & transportation ecosystems...more so than the Saudis. It might be painful in the short term, but I believe we'll win in the longer haul.
Probably very little. But it's the liability that is a threat. In a day & age of stressed state & municipal budgets, litigation is on the prowl.
Mind you, if there is a legitimate safety issue, I support punishing TRN. I say this as a long time shareholder. At the end of the day, I won't support any corporation pushing profits over base safety.
Interesting times for TRN.
I have to disagree.
Keep in mind that US companies also need $75 a barrel to make a decent profit. It makes no sense for us to crash our own companies, just to spite Russia. Moreover, as is apparent, there are other ways to sanction Russia...although as we're seeing, the world is interconnected and all of us hurt amidst conflict.
The Saudi angle makes most sense to me. But like you, I too concede I simply might be wrong. But that's how I am betting.
Best of luck to all of us.
I'm still looking for a bottom. I have $20k in at $63, so I need to average down. And yes, I still believe in CBI fundamentally.
CBI has significant exposure to nuclear contracts due to the Shaw acquisition. So sure, there is some risk here. But I see nuclear as part of a greater energy portfolio. Across this, CBI has $13 - $17 billion backlog.
Again, I'm looking for a market and CBI bottom. The only real risk for me is if Berkshire might sell, although I don't believe it's likely.
Actually, some did. Against diversification and risk. We spoke vigorously at times, but also as friends.
Strictly speaking, he didn't respond to me. Not that he has to. Nor did I say he owes anybody an apology...whereas I agree that Matt needed to do so.
Again, I just wanted to hear from a number of the main voices.
It's all good.