I think today's step is actually the best step the management has taken for a long period. I had very negative feeling about the management to let the auditor drag on and on. Regardless the connotation, the company is going to file the delayed 20F almost surely. That is all I want. So I bought in now.
Today could mark the low. But there are some fundamental reasons. As long as 20F is filed, the company's business even after heavy discount will still support this extremely low valuation. Its game division (Feiliu) is still one of the top players in that section.
The management is dead. No more tricks. $4 in sight.
You will be disappointed. NQ may never file 20-F. If it could, it would have already filed it. There might be nothing going on now -- talking about continuous work of auditing and the need for more time was likely just to fool the market. Any auditing work should have been finished long time back for such a small company. If you were the NQ management, would you have already taken action and be willing to pay whatever price for PW to employ whatever needed to finish it on time? I would. So I conclude that the delay of 20F must be not because of time or human resources needed.
But the market is smarter. It is not fooled by the tricks NQ management put out -- announcing selling small stakes at superficially high prices without fully disclosing the contracts. They must be fake. And by doing this the management made itself totally untrustworthy.
I have a conspiracy theory. NQ may be just buying time. One motivation might be NQ management has put down its stock shares as the collateral in the bank to borrow money. It needs to keep the stock price above certain level in order not to be liquidated.
By now everyone has known about the ongoing web cleanse campaign. SINA was sanctioned. YY was not. But The stock dropped 50% from its high to low even without guilty. now with campaign against counterfeits only announced but not even started, JMEI fate is uncertain. it does not matter whether it is found selling counterfeits or not.
when trading, one always has to differentiate the stock from the company. the short term sentiment in the current situation will dominate any company fundamental in affecting the stock price. all it needs to kill the stock here is one report by the CCTV or People's Daily. remember what happened to dangdang when counterfeit products were reported?
JMEI is by far the top target. The worst case, shutdown of the website plus fines. Stock to $17.
The enforcement action will start from July. More bad news -- such as shutdown of web sites -- to come. Wait. Alibaba's sites are the worst. Not only lots of products on its sites are fake, Alibaba does not take any responsibilities.
QIHU is the "legitimate" virus producer. You called it security? Oh yeah, it would make you secure in that it eats all your memory and prevents you from downloading BIDU's app and others such as Adobe's. Oh, also it robs your home page and sets it to QIHU's.
Before last month we were getting reports of merely slow sales but stable prices to small increases. However, prices dropped in half of the cities last month. This is a new beginning. By the end of this year, we should expect price decline of 10% or so across the country. (Remember how much US houses dropped?) Every stock will be severely affected -- SFUN, EJ, LEJU, and NOAH on the kill list, then QIHU, WUBA, BIDU -- those depending on ads revenue.
By NASDAQ rules, NQ still has until end of October to be delisted. Can it file unqualified 20F in this time? I doubt it. If it could, it would have already filed. I seriously doubt that the audit is not finished yet. The problem is NQ cannot publish it.
Starting July, it is going to enforce strict rules on online fake and false-claim products, including cosmetics among other products. Will force to close the sites as the enforcement.
QingDao after Hangzhou, 50 listing agencies united and withdrew all listings from SoFun. They held a press conference. You can find video clip in qtv. The number of units on SFUN in QingDao dropped from 25,000 to only 5,000 consequently. Anyone still claims LEJU not affected?
This is an opportunistic time for listing agencies to gain the up-hand because sales are very slow.
I guess this is how insiders created opportunities for themselves to dump. Would anyone deny Citron was suspicion of manipulation? First short, then long, of course all depending on what direction is profitable to it.
Compared with GOMO, MOBI is a shabby company. No matter in which aspect of fundamentals, MOBI is inferior to GOMO. Then even GOMO is traded at a single digit p/e after cash. So do not talk about such thing as "undervalued." Game distribution will be just like the ring tone business several years ago and -- all virtually dead by now. Everyone can do so called platform and game distribution.
Some people must have remembered Tilson shorted VIPS early this year. Then to serve his purpose, he tried to manipulate the stock by simply saying the company was fraud -- "fraud because I shorted the stock." Did he cover? Lose money? Why not announce the cover now?
I said that QIHU should never command a higher p/e (2015's) than BIDU.
1. Will QIHU grow faster than BIDU after 2015? Probably not. So it should not have a higher p/e.
2. QIHU has only one product, compared with multiproducts and deep research of BIDU.
3. Its sole product is a junk to me.
4. QIHU's major revenue is from games, a segment that deserves a p/e of only 10.
The stock under rational market should be traded below $60., and with high risk.
Here is how I interpret the surprising rise in the stock Wednesday. It was not because of the PR of "no fraud." Everyone expected that. And recall that the company issued similar statement a month or so ago. So there was no significant news in the PR. The stock shot up all because how traders read the PR. They thought the PR was a signal that filing 20F was coming imminently. But now after two days nothing followed. If by next week nothing happens, traders will re-evaluate and selling would ensure.
It is very difficult to trade this stock. I believe there must be serious issues that could not be resolved. But then the company comes up with these nuisances (except for real information about 20F) to pump the stock up once in a while.
Today's price action just proves my point: QIHU is nothing more than a momentum stock.
Was there any "outperformance?" Check this:
Nomura analysts Chao Wang and Liz Guan:
1Q non-GAAP EPS beat consensus by 45% and was in line with our estimate. However, excluding an USD28mn one-off gain, 1Q non-GAAP EPS was 40% lower than our expectation, mainly due to surging cost of sales and selling and market expenses we believe resulting from intensifying competition.
We cut 2014F/2015F non-GAAP EPS by 10%/13% to budget for more expenses especially related to pre-installation.
you yourself check the yahoo site for earnings revision and tell me why estimates were going down. qihu was up not because of itself, but all momentum stocks were up -- nflx, pcln, etc. junk stocks were the group that rose most.